atlantic Tropical Storm Erika

[Somerset Squall]

The disturbance to the east of the remnants of Danny has become Tropical Storm Erika, the fifth named storm of the season. Track looks similar to Danny, but a bit more of a route to the north. Strengthening is expected.

[summer blizzard]

Tilted vortex due to shear and speed.

Suggestions are that the system will slow down over the coming days however shear will be significant days 2-4. By day 5 it has sea temperatures around 30C with decreasing shear and speed though, fodder models ramp it up.

[knocker]

Erika Forms but is Struggling for Now – Could Strengthen and Threaten Bahamas, U.S. in 4-7 Days

[summer blizzard]

Now at 45mph, 1003mb.

 

With regards to her future it looks like shear will be significant from 24-72 hours and indeed GFS has it becoming an open wave. At days 4 and 5 however if it survives then it will be slowing, in a less sheared environment and have sea temperatures around 30C (no shock then that fodder models have it as high as category 4). Track depends on strength somewhat but there's decent chance of a Florida or Carolina hit if it doesn't stay weak enough to shred the needle. My own guess assuming she survives long enough would be a strengthening category 2 into eastern Florida.

 

Looks very symmetrical at the moment which is a plus..

 

 

[Boro Snow]

Many paths it could take

 

[summer blizzard]

Many paths it could take

 

 

The paths that FISH it all have it as a major hurricane by then. The consensus is much weaker and somewhere in the vicinity of Florida (a late enough curve also puts South Carolina at risk).

 

GFS ensembles shifted east though with a few putting the system in the Gulf. 

[summer blizzard]

Small victories perhaps, the GFS keeps the system intact as does the Euro.

 

GDFL had a 926mb monster.

[geoffw]

is gdfl considered as cannon fodder?

[summer blizzard]

is gdfl considered as cannon fodder?

 

Yes.

[summer blizzard]

Euro just misses Florida and the Carolina's but we are rewarded afterward..

 

[knocker]

Quote from Levi

 

Erika is not simply suffering from northerly shear. The decoupled vortex has been present from birth, a structural defect from her wave days

[knocker]

Erika Hangs on, With Big Uncertainties Ahead

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3090

[Sainsbo]

Still lots of uncertainty regarding the track and intensity. HWRF has a FISH finishing the run at around 125mph/950mb, and as SS said, the GDFL makes Erika into a monster, peaking at around 150mph/938mb. CMC on the other hand has Erika making landfall as a weak category 1. Everything else seems to be between the two extremes

[summer blizzard]

Now at 1006mb, 50mph. 

 

Models still putting out all kinds of fun solutions however the NHC looked to have towards a Carolina hit. 

 

The outlook for the system from day 3 is excellent. Low shear, 30C sea temperatures and a slowing system. By avoiding Florida it also has more time over water too so a stronger system likely. 

 

First though, it's moved south of the previous forecast which means Haiti is a threat.

[geoffw]

could this develop into a category 3 hurricane?

[summer blizzard]

could this develop into a category 3 hurricane?

 

Possibly. 

 

..

 

We now have multiple centers.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Would the Dominican Republic come off badly from Erika? I currently have friends holidaying there :/

[knocker]

I'm afraid they have come off very badly due to the very heavy rain.

 

Last night's video assessment by Levi Cowan is worth a listen.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Sainsbo]

The last run of the GFDL-P has a Cat 4 hitting the Carolinas, GEM has a weak TS hitting Florida. Still all kinds of possibilities being forecast by different models.

[Yarmy]

I guess a weak, wet Erika (ahem) would actually be welcomed in Florida.

[knocker]

Recent quote from Levi

 

"Erika now on a track directly over Hispaniola. We'll have to see if there's anything left at all on the other side. There may not be".

[Summer Sun]

Florida Governor Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Erika churns its way across the Atlantic.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1543153/florida-declares-emergency-as-erika-approaches

[knocker]

Levi Cowan â€@TropicalTidbits 2h2 hours ago

Playing count the swirlies with Erika. I count 3 embedded within larger gyre. Heavy weather all east of center.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&mapcolor=cyan&palette=ir.pal&type=Animation&quality=100&numframes=30 …

[Nouska]

Make that four according to latest recon.

 

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2472366#p2472366

 

Nice close loop.  http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=prev&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=Caribbean-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes_lowcloud&PAGETYPE=static&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/Caribbean-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes_lowcloud&ARROW=next&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

 

Another of those sprawling multi-vortex systems, just like her previous namesake in 2009.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Amusingly it's still headed west, at this rate it could end up missing Haiti.