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The disturbance to the east of the remnants of Danny has become Tropical Storm Erika, the fifth named storm of the season. Track looks similar to Danny, but a bit more of a route to the north. Strengthening is expected.

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Tilted vortex due to shear and speed.

Suggestions are that the system will slow down over the coming days however shear will be significant days 2-4. By day 5 it has sea temperatures around 30C with decreasing shear and speed though, fodder models ramp it up.

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Now at 45mph, 1003mb.

 

With regards to her future it looks like shear will be significant from 24-72 hours and indeed GFS has it becoming an open wave. At days 4 and 5 however if it survives then it will be slowing, in a less sheared environment and have sea temperatures around 30C (no shock then that fodder models have it as high as category 4). Track depends on strength somewhat but there's decent chance of a Florida or Carolina hit if it doesn't stay weak enough to shred the needle. My own guess assuming she survives long enough would be a strengthening category 2 into eastern Florida.

 

Looks very symmetrical at the moment which is a plus..

 

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Many paths it could take

 

CNVqYXVUEAAf1lL.png

 

The paths that FISH it all have it as a major hurricane by then. The consensus is much weaker and somewhere in the vicinity of Florida (a late enough curve also puts South Carolina at risk).

 

GFS ensembles shifted east though with a few putting the system in the Gulf. 

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Small victories perhaps, the GFS keeps the system intact as does the Euro.

 

GDFL had a 926mb monster.

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Euro just misses Florida and the Carolina's but we are rewarded afterward..

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

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Quote from Levi

 

Erika is not simply suffering from northerly shear. The decoupled vortex has been present from birth, a structural defect from her wave days

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Still lots of uncertainty regarding the track and intensity. HWRF has a FISH finishing the run at around 125mph/950mb, and as SS said, the GDFL makes Erika into a monster, peaking at around 150mph/938mb. CMC on the other hand has Erika making landfall as a weak category 1. Everything else seems to be between the two extremes

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Now at 1006mb, 50mph. 

 

Models still putting out all kinds of fun solutions however the NHC looked to have towards a Carolina hit. 

 

The outlook for the system from day 3 is excellent. Low shear, 30C sea temperatures and a slowing system. By avoiding Florida it also has more time over water too so a stronger system likely. 

 

First though, it's moved south of the previous forecast which means Haiti is a threat.

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could this develop into a category 3 hurricane?

 

Possibly. 

 

..

 

We now have multiple centers.

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The last run of the GFDL-P has a Cat 4 hitting the Carolinas, GEM has a weak TS hitting Florida. Still all kinds of possibilities being forecast by different models.

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I guess a weak, wet Erika (ahem) would actually be welcomed in Florida.

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Recent quote from Levi

 

"Erika now on a track directly over Hispaniola. We'll have to see if there's anything left at all on the other side. There may not be".

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Amusingly it's still headed west, at this rate it could end up missing Haiti.

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