Met Office loses BBC contract

[4caster]

I agree that the cloud looks too similar to the snow. But the BBC forecasters have the ability to remove the cloud overlay so as to leave the precipitation showing, and provided they tell viewers that they have done so, the white colour will represent only falling snow.

My gripe is that, particularly on charts showing the whole of the British Isles, the place names obscure the meteorology. For example the B in Birmingham lies near Rosslare, Ireland. One way around that would be to remove the black "fill" of the rectangles surrounding the place names so that the rectangles are transparent, and change the place names from white to black. The names would still be legible because the background is never pure black.

[Summer Sun]

The beebs radar v Netweather & Met office the latter is data from around 50 minutes ago

You think with all this tech available the beeb would be able to narrow it down even on a radar

[4caster]

Thank you, Summer Sun, for posting this comparison. Essentially all three show the same thing. In the early days of weather radar the Met Office had "quality control", a tedious operation that involved checking suspect echoes against surface observations and removing "Anomalous Propagation (AnaProp)" echoes, such as ground returns, with a light pen. This of course delayed the issuance of the imagery. Nowadays I think AnaProp is removed automatically and the forecaster/presenters have no means of altering the imagery except for choosing which layers to display, such as clouds, fog, etc. The NetWeather display is the clearest in my opinion, but a coastline and place names as the top layer would help readers to locate where they are under the veil of precipitation.

[danm]

I’ve noticed this now over several weeks on some forecasts that the resolution is high even when zoomed out, but other forecasts show the low resolution graphics.

Here is an example from today. The resolution is the same when the presenter zooms in, so she clearly must have selected an option to show high resolution graphics even when zoomed out. Why can’t they do this for every broadcast? 

 

[Derecho]

LOL

[Summer Sun]

7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

LOL

Snow is in the warning issued by the met office for Monday

"The heavy rain will be accompanied by strong to gale force Northerly winds, and it will be cold enough to produce some snow on high ground such as the North and South Downs, although this is unlikely to settle."

[4caster]

I agree with the BBC forecast. Lying snow is most unlikely even on the Downs. The depression is coming from the western Med. GFS and ECMWF place it slightly further east, and this zoomed-in GFS chart shows the maximum spread westwards, at 0900Z on Monday. The dotted lines are 1000-850 HPa thicknesses, which need to be below 130 DM for snow on the Downs.

This is four days away, so the exact track of the depression is doubtful. The rain could extend further westwards, or it could miss England altogether. The wide area chart is from ECMWF for the same time. It takes the depression away northeastwards across Germany.

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

LOL

The crap graphics overplay it but sleet and wet snow is possible in the SE.

[4caster]

Sorry, I thought I had chosen an ECMWF chart, but it was another GFS one, and I tried to edit it but the postman came to the door, and I was not in time to edit it! This is the ECMWF chart for Monday at 00Z. The track of the depression is closer to the BBC one. But 850 HPa temperatures of Zero to MS 04 over SE England are not cold enough for snow to settle on the Downs.

[Stargazer]

One potentially interesting development to watch...this evening Sarah Keith-Lucas showed and contrasted the surface pressure charts for the ECM and GFS model evolutions for next week. First time I can remember a detailed comparison of two models - perhaps a welcome sign of things to come?

Edited April 26, 2018 by Stargazer

[Nick L]

14 minutes ago, Stargazer said:

One potentially interesting development to watch...this evening Sarah Keith-Lucas showed and contrasted the surface pressure charts for the ECM and GFS model evolutions for next week. First time I can remember a detailed comparison of two models - perhaps a welcome sign of things to come?

I'm currently sat here tearing my hair out over the differences. UKV takes it even further west than the EC. Glad this is my last shift for a few days 

[4caster]

Yes, a marked difference between the two models' solutions. I had recorded the bulletin at 26/2200 BST and saw it for myself. We'll see which model is correct (if either!).

[nick sussex]

I still think the BBC should never have parted with the Met Office .

 

[Derecho]

It certainly looks like being cold but as I suspect the snow potential for tomorrow was overplayed a couple of days ago. There was the potential for surprise snowfalls from evaporate cooling (?) but dew points and maximum temperatures being above freezing the probability was always very small IMO. Surprised to see the BBC went for a big snow blob over the London area. People could have looked at that forecast and panicked.

Looks like the event is consistently being pushed further east, whilst it still looks like a washout in some eastern areas, there is a chance that here in Southampton it may not even rain at all...

I think the BBC are far too bullish with snow chances on these new graphics. Like they were over the lead up to and during easter.

[4caster]

I don't believe the forecasters can manipulate the graphical forecasts beyond choosing which elements to display and on what scale. They can't move rain areas further east or west, for example, or alter the track of a depression. Occasionally they'll explain that the precipitation is overdone, or it might get a little further north, but they wouldn't say things like that without being confident about it.

The same applied when the Met Office had the BBC contract. But then they had regular conferences with the Met Office Chief Forecaster, who would try to persuade them to stick to the party line. Again they wouldn't diverge unless they were pretty sure about it.

Edited April 29, 2018 by 4caster

[Nick L]

On 28/04/2018 at 17:44, nick sussex said:

I still think the BBC should never have parted with the Met Office .

 

For reasons of them being better forecasters or purely sentimental reasons?

[Summer Sun]

Darlington text headline saying drizzle forecast its self shows an 11% chance of rain. The wind is certainly noticeable though, and cold

[johnholmes]

9 hours ago, 4caster said:

I don't believe the forecasters can manipulate the graphical forecasts beyond choosing which elements to display and on what scale. They can't move rain areas further east or west, for example, or alter the track of a depression. Occasionally they'll explain that the precipitation is overdone, or it might get a little further north, but they wouldn't say things like that without being confident about it.

The same applied when the Met Office had the BBC contract. But then they had regular conferences with the Met Office Chief Forecaster, who would try to persuade them to stick to the party line. Again they wouldn't diverge unless they were pretty sure about it.

they would NOT diverge from the party line be assured of that.

[4caster]

I know of one who had a reputation for pushing his own ideas rather than those of the chief forecaster, but I don't think I should name him here.

[Summer Sun]

The national forecast last night after the late news on BBC1 appeared to use high res graphics for today's rain/showers fully zoomed out

Why can't they use them all the time? It looked so much better

Edited June 10, 2018 by Summer Sun

[WeatherManx]

Just checking my location forecast on the BBC website, and as always, it's still using the descriptor 'Breezy'. The quoted wind speed overnight is 1mph! They've had months to sort out this bug. It really is very poor.

[J10]

4 minutes ago, WeatherManx said:

Just checking my location forecast on the BBC website, and as always, it's still using the descriptor 'Breezy'. The quoted wind speed overnight is 1mph! They've had months to sort out this bug. It really is very poor.

The location forecasts are now so unreliable as to make them unusable.

The differences between Met Office and BBC forecasts are often massive.

[CheesepuffScott]

Nice that they can predict that it'll be partly cloudy and 22C at 6pm on 7th July... ridiculous lol

[Summer Sun]

Philip Avery has left BBC weather 

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Philip Avery has left BBC weather 

That's a big shame. Probably the best one of the bunch.

Have you got a source for this? Can't find anything.

Edited June 29, 2018 by Nick L