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September 2015 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I have the table of entries ready to post just after midnight, and so far 65 entries and median is 13.5 C. Everything taken from 12.4 to 14.6, also 14.8, 11.9 and 17.0 -- lots of warm options are open (not surprisingly).

 

Will edit this post when the table is posted in the contest scoring thread.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/page-6#entry3254131

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

first month of autumn. I'm going for. 13.4c

Edited by syed2878
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Daily and cumulative normals for CET in September (1981-2010) with daily extremes

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ max ______ min (records 1772-2014)

 

01 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 ___ 21.8 (1780,1906) __ 7.1 (1816)

02 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 22.6 (1906) __ 7.6 (1816)

03 ___ 15.3 __ 15.4 _____ 20.2 (1880) __ 8.2 (1816,1908)

04 ___ 14.7 __ 15.2 _____ 20.7 (1880) __ 7.7 (1841)

05 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 _____ 22.4 (1949) __ 8.1 (1841)

06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.2 _____ 20.8 (1898) __ 8.5 (1841)

07 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.1 (1868) __ 8.6 (1952)

08 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.3 (1898) __ 8.9 (1807,1931)

09 ___ 14,7 __ 15,1 _____ 19.8 (1898) __ 9.2 (1860,1912)

10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.0 _____ 19.2 (1865) __ 8.6 (1860)

 

11 ___ 14.8 __ 15.0 _____ 20.3 (1999) __ 8.1 (1860)

12 ___ 14.4 __ 15.0 _____ 20.4 (1945) __ 8.1 (1848)

13 ___ 13.9 __ 14.9 _____ 19.4 (2006) __ 6.7 (1807)

14 ___ 13.7 __ 14.8 _____ 19.3 (1934) __ 6.7 (1807)

15 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 _____ 18.8 (1947) __ 7.9 (1986)

16 ___ 13.7 __ 14.7 _____ 19.6 (1961) __ 8.1 (1807)

17 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 _____ 20.4 (1898) __ 8.1 (1807)

18 ___ 13.9 __ 14.6 _____ 19.7 (1926) __ 6.9 (1807)

19 ___ 13,6 __ 14,5 _____ 20.9 (1926) __ 7.4 (1952)

20 ___ 14.0 __ 14.5 _____ 18.4 (1947) __ 6.8 (1919)

 

21 ___ 13.7 __ 14.5 _____ 21.4 (2006) __ 6.5 (1872)

22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.4 _____ 18.7 (1956) __ 6.3 (1872)

23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.4 _____ 18.3 (1956) __ 6.0 (1773)

24 ___ 12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 18.3 (2006) __ 6.7 (1872)

25 ___ 12.7 __ 14.3 _____ 19.4 (1895) __ 7.4 (1812)

26 ___ 12.8 __ 14.2 _____ 18.4 (1895) __ 6.0 (1885)

27 ___ 12.9 __ 14.2 _____ 19.0 (1895) __ 6.1 (1824,1885)

28 ___ 13.2 __ 14.1 _____ 18.9 (2011) __ 4.9 (1824)

29 ___ 13,1 __ 14,1 _____ 19.7 (2011) __ 5.5 (1918)

30 ___ 12.8 __ 14.04 ____ 20.0 (2011) __ 6.3 (1808)

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 9.6C, while maxima look like being around the mid 15s, so a drop to about 13.1C looks likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

13.1C to the 4th (13.1: -1.6)
13.0C to the 5th (12.7: -2.5)
13.0C to the 6th (12.8: -2.3)
13.0C to the 7th (13.3: -1.7)
13.0C to the 8th (12.9: -2.1)
12.9C to the 9th (12.4: -2.3)
13.1C to the 10th (14.2: -0.5)
13.4C to the 11th (16.9: +2.1)
13.7C to the 12th (17.3: +2.8]
 
Looks like remaining cool in the reliable time frame, before a sharp warm after the 10th. Probably a top 5 coolest first week in the last 50 years.
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

 

The minimum today is 9.6C, while maxima look like being around the mid 15s, so a drop to about 13.1C looks likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

13.1C to the 4th (13.1: -1.6)
13.0C to the 5th (12.7: -2.5)
13.0C to the 6th (12.8: -2.3)
13.0C to the 7th (13.3: -1.7)
13.0C to the 8th (12.9: -2.1)
12.9C to the 9th (12.4: -2.3)
13.1C to the 10th (14.2: -0.5)
13.4C to the 11th (16.9: +2.1)
13.7C to the 12th (17.3: +2.8]
 
Looks like remaining cool in the reliable time frame, before a sharp warm after the 10th. Probably a top 5 coolest first week in the last 50 years.

 

Compared to what was originally expected by most people methinks this "cold spell" has turned out to be a damp squib with the first 6 days CET failing to average below 13C.  So 1992 remains the last time this happened.  It also seems there is yet another September Indian Summer on the way.  Certainly not what I want in the autumn.

Edited by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(
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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

Compared to what was originally expected by most people methinks this "cold spell" has turned to be a damp squib with the first 6 days CET failing to average below 13C.  So 1992 remains the last time this happened.  It also seems there is yet another September Indian Summer on the way.  Certainly not what I want in the autumn.

 

Hmmm,  a 'true' Indian Summer, if it happens is an October onwards affair, early Autumn warmth just doesn't count. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

13.1c to the 5th

 

1.6c below the 61 to 90 average

 

2.1c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 6.7C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 18s, so a drop back to 13.0C looks likely on tomorrow's update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

 

13.1C to the 7th (13.8: -1.2)
13.0C to the 8th (12.3: -2.7)
13.1C to the 9th (13.7: -1.0)
13.4C to the 10th (16.3: +1.6)
13.7C to the 11th (16.3: +1.5)
13.9C to the 12th (16.2: +1.8]
14.0C to the 13th (15.3: +1.4)
14.0C to the 14th (14.0: +0.3)
14.0C to the 15th (14.0: +0.4)
 
Despite the warm up forecast, we should remain comfortably below the 81-10 average by both the 10th (-1.6C) and 15th (-0.7C)
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today of 8.1C, while maxima look like reaching close to 20C, so an increase to 13.0C is likely on tomorrow's update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

12.9C to the 8th (12.2: -2.8]
13.0C to the 9th (13.7: -1.0)
13.4C to the 10th (16.6: +1.9)
13.7C to the 11th (16.7: +1.8]
13.9C to the 12th (16.2: +1.8]
14.1C to the 13th (16.2: +2.3)
14.1C to the 14th (15.2: +1.5)
14.1C to the 15th (14.0: +0.4)
14.0C to the 16th (12.3: -1.4)
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A notably cool start to September then, but suspect we have reached the low point now, unusual to say this on the 7th, but who knows we could see a marked downward fall back to similar levels after the upcoming predicted warmer period.. I think it will be a major struggle to record anything other than an average month at best.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

looks like 3 days of solid rises to come after today, medium term looks to be of a tropical maritime nature so we may have seen the low point for the month, although not possible to rule out a sharpish fall near the month end as the potential for lower daily outcomes increases

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