September 2015 CET forecasts

[Timmytour]

Going for a contrived statistical approach.  On the assumption that August will come in at 16C or just below, that would make it the first time since 1968 that all three summer months came in between 14C and 16C with a May that was below 11C. So I'm going with the same September mean as 1968....13.9C

[seabreeze86]

12.6 for me please

[mulzy]

13.1C please.

[damianslaw]

It looks like a rare colder than average start to September and notably so, this is quite notable as September sees a significant cooling trend, I can't see anything other than a final CET average at best, but a good chance of being below the 81-10 average, indeed good chance below the 61-90 average, those cold SST values to the NW are having a major marked effect on conditions, governing the last 4 months. My guess a chilly 13.2 degrees with some notably cool nights especially early on.

[easy-oasy]

13.6 for me please

[Gael_Force]

Anybody else remember this post on the model thread....

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83477-model-output-discussion-1st-july-onwards-18z/?p=3237227

 

.... there was a certain slant that made me wonder if the MetO were seeing a cool September way back then.

 

13c please.

[Weather-history]

13.7C

[Godber 1]

12.6c for me please.

[coram]

12.8 please

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's how the CET looks according to the 06z GFS.

 

14.2C to the 1st (14.2: -1.2)

13.9C to the 2nd (13.5: -1.9)

13.2C to the 3rd (11.8: -3.5)

12.9C to the 4th (12.2: -2.5)

12.9C to the 5th (12.9: -2.3)

12.6C to the 6th (11.2: -3.9)

12.7C to the 7th (12.9: -2.1)

12.8C to the 8th (13.8: -2.1)

12.9C to the 9th (13.3: -1.4)

 

A distinctly cool start to September looks likely, possibly the coolest first week since 1992 (12.6C) or maybe even 1965 (12.0C).

[Norrance]

13.0C please.

[Summer of 95]

14.8 please

Hoping for a 2011-style end after what looks a horribly cold start.

[Mark Bayley]

12.9c please

[Methuselah]

I think i'll adjust mine down to 13.6, please.

[reef]

Cooler than average.

13.4C

Edited August 31, 2015 by reef

[LincolnSnowstorm]

13.4C as well please

[Polar Maritime]

13.1c ta

[Man With Beard]

14.0C

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll lower my guess a tad to 13.2C. Thanks

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

14.8 C

[AderynCoch]

14.5

[stewfox]

Going lower it down to 13.1c

[March Blizzard]

12.5C, please.

[Great Plum]

13.3c please

[Costa Del Fal]

Think I will lower mine a touch more too. Will go for 13.3c please.