atlantic Major Hurricane Danny

[summer blizzard]

Outflow has expanded beautifully on the eastern side.

976mb, 105mph.

Gained size as well which may help if it avoids the shredder (Haiti).

[Somerset Squall]

Danny is now a cat 2 with winds of 90kts. It's certainly doing a good job of shielding itself against the dry air. As a result, Danny is tiny. This does mean, as soon as shear rises, Danny could collapse quite quickly.

[summer blizzard]

First recon plane in.. still strengthening.. 965mb and 111KT FL winds (how do we get the surface estimation?).

[summer blizzard]

Models which don't kill or shred it suggest it could strengthen again towards day 5.

[summer blizzard]

101kt SFMR unflagged, 108kt flight level

 

I make that 116mb​, category 3 (the first in the deep tropics for some time if so).

[Nouska]

First recon plane in.. still strengthening.. 965mb and 111KT FL winds (how do we get the surface estimation?).

 

Rough rule of thumb is a ten percent reduction providing no flags or contamination.

[summer blizzard]

You can shear just to the west via the first moisture plume however you can also see that Danny is dealing with the sorrounding dry air very well (basically created it's own moist environment and has expanded in size somewhat).

 

Eye has become smaller and more ragid which could indicate an eyewall replacement cycle (consistent with it's increasing size - almost like the energy gets spread out instead of tightening).

 

I suspect that it will continue to strengthen overnight (durinal max) and then begin to struggle tomorrow.

 

[summer blizzard]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 211747
TCUAT4

HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.

No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts â€‹

[Nouska]

Brilliant that Danny made it to major status before reaching unfavourable conditions. Maybe being tiny and compact is better able to cope with adversity than the sprawling, multi-vortex, poorly stacked systems we have seen in recent years.

[Methuselah]

Brilliant that Danny made it to major status before reaching unfavourable conditions. Maybe being tiny and compact is better able to cope with adversity than the sprawling, multi-vortex, poorly stacked systems we have seen in recent years.

And it still 'might' have an effect on UK weather?

[summer blizzard]

And it still 'might' have an effect on UK weather?

 

Some models do have it out to sea so potentially however the GFS ensembles have it headed for Florida and it could still hit Shredola (Haiti).

[Nouska]

And it still 'might' have an effect on UK weather?

 

As far as tropical weather goes, I think invest 97L may be more of a player for UK weather.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#97L

[summer blizzard]

Brilliant that Danny made it to major status before reaching unfavourable conditions. Maybe being tiny and compact is better able to cope with adversity than the sprawling, multi-vortex, poorly stacked systems we have seen in recent years.

 

Bigger is definitely better with shear.

 

Because shear stops a storm from producing its own environment it ends up letting in dry air and can cause a negative feedback cycle. Larger storms even if vulnerable to shear have more moisture and are better able to protect the core.

 

Of course we don't actually know what size is enough, for all we know Danny may cough for a bit then be fine.

[Lauren]

As long as one doesn't hit Mexico when I go in October, I don't mind. Having said that it might be quite fun to experience a hurricane as long as you are safe.

[Steve C]

Bigger is definitely better with shear.

 

Because shear stops a storm from producing its own environment it ends up letting in dry air and can cause a negative feedback cycle. Larger storms even if vulnerable to shear have more moisture and are better able to protect the core.

 

Of course we don't actually know what size is enough, for all we know Danny may cough for a bit then be fine.

 

You're overcomplicating, IMO. Think about how the north part of a storm in our hemisphere, has winds moving in a somewhat easterly direction and how it interacts with upper westerlies. Ne'er the twain shall meet...

[Somerset Squall]

Well I wasn't expecting Danny to become a 100kt, cat 3 major hurricane! Impressive little system. Danny has most likely peaked as the small, well defined eye earlier has already become cloud filled. Rising shear will probably be very damaging to Danny in the coming days.

[knocker]

Well I wasn't expecting Danny to become a 100kt, cat 3 major hurricane! Impressive little system. Danny has most likely peaked as the small, well defined eye earlier has already become cloud filled. Rising shear will probably be very damaging to Danny in the coming days.

 

yup, according to Levi through tonight and in the morning.

[summer blizzard]

Tilted vortex although it looks reasonably organized at the upper level.

Track looks north of the islands now.

[knocker]

As expected,is losing it. Recon finding what may only be a tropical storm with 990mb pressure.

[summer blizzard]

Yes, clearly on a tropical storm. Reasonable structure though and it seems to be coping with dry air so ita only shear.

[summer blizzard]

Maintaining at 50mph but expected to hit land and die soon. Looks stacked again but dry air is entering the core.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Winds are now down to 35kts. Weakening to a tropical depression is expected in 24hrs, remnant low in 48hrs, though there is a chance this could occur sooner.

[summer blizzard]

And he's dead. Last advisory.