atlantic hurricane season Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

[knocker]

Tracks of Atlantic basin TCs (>=35 knots) in 2015. Looking a little spartan in the hurricane department this year!

 

[summer blizzard]

93L now back to 90% and looking solid.

95L at 80% but has a bit of dry air.

[Somerset Squall]

93L now a tropical depression, but forecast to remain just that. I can't even be bothered to make a thread about it!

[summer blizzard]

93L now a tropical depression, but forecast to remain just that. I can't even be bothered to make a thread about it!

 

SHIP's suggests that if it ever makes it to day 5 the shear relaxes. Day's 1-4 should kill it though.

 

SHIPS also still suggests that 95L should be the real story in terms of low shear, warm seas and potentially reaching the 50-80W, 20-40N promised land. If it ever forms.

Edited September 16, 2015 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

TD9 close to death. The shear chart says all.

95L looks brilliant. I'd not be surprised if it was declared this morning.

[summer blizzard]

99L has been declared a 40% invest close to the Yucatan. We get these every year (normally rain makers but relatively weak).

 

[Lauren]

I've taken a look at NOAA and I see there are 2 systems of interest likely to develop ion the West Caribbean. Can any of you more experienced people tell me whether the Riviera Maya is looking to get anything significant in the next 3 weeks as I'm heading out there next Monday. Or is your guess as good as NOAA's?

[summer blizzard]

98L has become TD11. If it makes TS, I'll open a thread.

[summer blizzard]

TD11 looking increasingly thread worthy. Models have the trough approaching the east coast amplifying and are increasingly forecasting it to hit the coast. Euro and UKMO now go to hurricane strength, one of the fodder models had a category 3 into New York.

Main worry wherever it hits will be rain. Because 99L is moving up the inland coast at the same time you have two sources of tropical moisture and a cold front all going to mix somewhere.

[Summer Sun]

Met Office predicts slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/05/12/met-office-predicts-slightly-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/

[The PIT]

The big decider maybe how fast El Nino decays or not. We shall see.

[knocker]

2016 Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Hurricane Season Forecast (Updated On May 14)

http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2016-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/

[Nouska]

Prognosis from the Mexican weather bureau - no text discussion but they see the EPAC more active than the Atlantic.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/tools/DATA/Ciclones%20Tropicales/Proyecci%C3%B3n/2016.pdf

[knocker]

Levi's hurricane outlook

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[summer blizzard]

On 5/13/2016 at 18:06, The PIT said:

The big decider maybe how fast El Nino decays or not. We shall see.

Nino is basically dead now, one would expect peak season at least to be registering a neutral or Nina signal. 

On 5/16/2016 at 09:48, knocker said:

Levi's hurricane outlook

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Very interesting. 

My own thoughts so far are pretty positive with increased forcing in the Tropical Atlantic relative to all years since 2011. In short, an average to above average outlook. 

[radiohead]

[radiohead]

Quote

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 745 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to show signs of organization, and the circulation of the low has become a little better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT this afternoon. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

 

[radiohead]

TD2 will be announced shortly

 

Quote

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two at 5 pm EDT/2100 UTC. This will include a TS Warning for the South Carolina coast.

 

[summer blizzard]

[Gray-Wolf]

So we have Bonnie but it doesn't look like it will develop further than its T.S. status?

[Sainsbo]

Looks like it got a little boost from the gulf stream, but never managed to get above 40kts. Landfall in South Carolina later on today.

A hurricane in January, a land falling tropical system before hurricane season officially starts, I wonder what else this year will bring?

[BornFromTheVoid]

We're hosting a Q&A session (called an AMA) over on reddit.com/r/science with the NOAA meteorologists involved in hurricane predictions, thought some of ye might be interested.

Science AMA Series: Hello Redditors! I’m Dr. Gerry Bell, a meteorologist in the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA’s National Weather Service, I lead teams of scientists at NOAA who predict the Atlantic, eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane seasons every year. Ask Me Anything!

Hello Reddit!

I’m Dr. Gerry Bell, a hurricane climate specialist and research meteorologist with NOAA's National Weather Service at the Climate Prediction Center. My research into the climate factors that control seasonal hurricane activity helped NOAA launch the first seasonal Atlantic hurricane outlook in 1998. Since then, I've been the lead scientist on the team that predicts Atlantic hurricane seasons and lead author of the annual hurricane outlook. I've spent a great deal of my professional career researching, publishing, and lecturing on the science of Atlantic hurricane activity, primarily the factors that fuel or hinder storm development.

Each year, we monitor global climate patterns and use advanced computer models to predict how many named storms will form in the Atlantic, how many will become hurricanes (Category 1-2), and how many will become major hurricanes (Category 3-5). While our team can't predict how many hurricanes will make landfall, the seasonal outlook provides a general idea of whether the season will be slow or active based on climate patterns running in the background and influencing storm development. It also provides everyone in hurricane-prone areas with a great opportunity to get prepared.

On May 27, in fact, we issued our 2016 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. It calls for a near-normal season with a 70-percent likelihood of 10-16 named storms and 4-8 hurricanes, of which 1-4 could be major hurricanes. The announcement is available on NOAA.gov at http://www.noaa.gov/near-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-most-likely-year.

I’ll be here from 1:00 pm EDT to 3:00 pm EDT today answering your questions about our predictions for this year and the science behind how we make those predictions … AMA!

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/4m0jnq/science_ama_series_hello_redditors_im_dr_gerry/

[summer blizzard]

New Invest, 60% chance of development. 

Track looks pretty certain (think Wilma) but we're probably looking at something no better than a moderate TS as it moves into Florida next Tuesday. 

 

[mezzacyclone]

On 3 June 2016 at 23:36, summer blizzard said:New Invest, 60% chance of development. 

Track looks pretty certain (think Wilma) but we're probably looking at something no better than a moderate TS as it moves into Florida next Tuesday. 

 

Interesting early start to the season for a change regardless?

90% formation so its nailed on & it will be great to read the hunter obs later today so early in June  

 

[summer blizzard]

We have TD3.