atlantic hurricane season Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

[summer blizzard]

Now 40KT, 1003mb.

Edited August 24, 2015 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

99L at 70%. Looks like a Fish but the environment is good until day 4.

[summer blizzard]

99L now at 90%.

 

[summer blizzard]

Another wave dropping off Africa has 40%..

 

[summer blizzard]

91L now at 60%.

[summer blizzard]

Now at 70%..

 

 

[geoffw]

imo this storm will be a fish 

[summer blizzard]

Now at 80%. Is indeed expected to FISH.

[summer blizzard]

Its interesting that despite the strong El Nino well developed, this season is ahead of the last.

[summer blizzard]

Bay of Campeche may be worth watching days 5-10.. Euro has repeated runs backing it. Tonights is lovely.

 

[summer blizzard]

Wave off Africa has 50% in 5 days. 

[summer blizzard]

Still at 50%. GFS and GEM seem to like it.

 

[summer blizzard]

Now 60%.

[summer blizzard]

Now at 70%.

[summer blizzard]

Now at 80%.

 

SHIP's looks good through day 4.

[summer blizzard]

Now 90% and a 48 hour cherry.

 

Beauty tonight.

 

 

Edited September 13, 2015 by summer blizzard

[Thunder Snow]

Looks like the Atlantic is starting to wake up

[summer blizzard]

Looks like the Atlantic is starting to wake up

Surprisingly active Cape Verde season considering the strength of El Nino.

[summer blizzard]

Now at 80% within 48 hours. Nhc state it will likely develop today or tomorrow.

[summer blizzard]

93L now at 60%. Looks better today but wired as you can see from the image a few posts above.

95L (the wave behind) now at 70% and looking good.

[knocker]

Below-average TC activity predicted in the Atlantic basin over the next two weeks:

 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts/september_15_2015.pdf â€¦

[MR EXTREMES]

The alantic will have a more active hurricane season this year.

As displacement of the warmer water with cold waters more northwest alantic holding warmer waters near the warmer equator most certainly going to be a stormy autumn.

What with upper air patterns ruffled up with El Niño very different atmospheric pattern similar to 2010

Edited September 15, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[Nouska]

It's strange to see a perfectly formed, bare bones, no convection, tropical cyclone -

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/flash-vis-long.html

[summer blizzard]

It's strange to see a perfectly formed, bare bones, no convection, tropical cyclone -

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/flash-vis-long.html

 

Looks like we do indeed have a closed circulation (you can see the westerlies south of the center) but as you say, little convection. This may be due to dry air but in an environment of apparently near zero shear according to SHIPS. 

 

Looks pretty though and if develops convection over the center can probably be declared with 3 good days ahead of it. 

 

60% chance of development.

 

.....

 

95L (wave behind) is perhaps more interesting with an 80% chance of development and according to SHIPS should be in a low shear environment for the next 5 days. Staying further south than 93L it should be interesting if it gets to 50W above 20N where there's plenty of virgin warm water and still low shear.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Current shear for anybody interested.