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A super wide view of tropical activity - it's been a long time since we have seen such a potentially busy picture in the Atlantic. Just caught your post there @Singularity I don't need to po

Snapshot courtesy of the Earth Nullschool site; There's Fiona in the top-left, which has started firing persistent deep convection again having survived a region of near 30 knot wind shear.

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Bad news and better news.

 

Bad news is that 94L is down to 10% and probably dead.

 

..

 

Good news is that the GFS is much keener on the wave behind dropping off Africa around day 5. By day 9, both the 6z and 12z have a TS..

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_36.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_36.png

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Just posted this in mod thread if it's of any interest.

 

Much attention has been given to the Atlantic SST anomaly. Well moving south another July mark: SSTs in the tropical Atlc/Carib compared to global tropics were the coolest on record. What with El Nino and this one can understand this years hurricane forecast.

 

post-12275-0-35491000-1439229184_thumb.p

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Incredibly slow and quiet start to the Atlantic season, are we finally going to see an uplift in activity now the sea temperatures are reaching their peak and the sun starts to move southwards again?

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of
the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

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Cherry for day 5, 96L.

Probably a fish but stands a good chance of making hurricane strength, dare I say we might get a major hurricane.

Would be looking towards Bermuda for any hit, will hit the jet in 5-10 days too so look out for model instability.

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Levi's blogs always give a very nice and detailed insight into developments in the tropical Atlantic.

 

Wunderblogger Bob Henson also provides some info about 96L: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3074.

 

Also Steve Gregory has some info about the storm, with some in-depth illustrations: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/comment.html?entrynum=362.

 

The NHC currently has chances upped to 70% per 2 days and 80% per 5 days:

 

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressurelocated several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape VerdeIslands have become better organized over the past 24 hours.Environmental conditions appear conducive for additionaldevelopment, and a tropical depression will likely form within thenext day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

 

And next to 96L, there might be something else to track as well in the Atlantic, this time close to Bermuda:

 

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is likely to form within acouple of hundred miles of Bermuda over the western Atlantic Oceanin a few days.  Environmental conditions could support sometropical or subtropical development of the system by the weekendwhile it moves slowly northward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

 

Concluding, there seems to be enough going on in the Atlantic that might be of interest. The low forming near Bermuda will most likely recurve out of sea, and may also influence the weather near Western Europe. Definitely something to keep an eye on!

 

Sources:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/

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I had assumed the hurricane showing at the end of the GFS runs was invest 96L but it is actually from the second wave after this invest. On the 06Z, 96 dies in the Caribbean - the next pouch* lifts out and presumably fizzles in sand and dry air.

 

What is showing as pouch 24 seems to be the future storm/hurricane and leaves the African coast around the 23rd.

 

current_NRL.png

 

Tropical view from Tropical Tidbits.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2015081806&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=494

 

* Pouch tracking from Montgomery Research group.

 

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2015-atlantic.html

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