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Gray-Wolf

Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

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It looks like there is a good chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico over the coming days. Low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is going to gradually develop as it moved north and then northeast. Not expected to become a hurricane but the Gulf has been so dead this season that even a tropical storm would be noteworthy.

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On 28/09/2019 at 10:52, summer blizzard said:

Atlantic ACE should hit 100 tomorrow. Above normal season.

Mainly thanks to Lorenzo I imagine.

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70% chance of tropical storm development in the Gulf. The ECM seems to flirt with hurricane strength in 48 hours while the GFS doesn't develop it that much. Either way, north Florida the most likely landfall site.

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Feels like the season in the Atlantic has fallen flat for the moment. What prospects for a late surge?

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Nothing is showing in the models which takes us into November. 

Although the Atlantic has seen a fair bit of activity earlier in the season, the Gulf and the Caribbean have been mostly dead despite the high SSTs.

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A tropical storm is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico. However, a cold front is catching up with the system and it is expected to make it post tropical by tonight (local time).

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