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Gray-Wolf

Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

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It looks like there is a good chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico over the coming days. Low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is going to gradually develop as it moved north and then northeast. Not expected to become a hurricane but the Gulf has been so dead this season that even a tropical storm would be noteworthy.

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On 28/09/2019 at 10:52, summer blizzard said:

Atlantic ACE should hit 100 tomorrow. Above normal season.

Mainly thanks to Lorenzo I imagine.

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70% chance of tropical storm development in the Gulf. The ECM seems to flirt with hurricane strength in 48 hours while the GFS doesn't develop it that much. Either way, north Florida the most likely landfall site.

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Feels like the season in the Atlantic has fallen flat for the moment. What prospects for a late surge?

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Nothing is showing in the models which takes us into November. 

Although the Atlantic has seen a fair bit of activity earlier in the season, the Gulf and the Caribbean have been mostly dead despite the high SSTs.

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A tropical storm is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico. However, a cold front is catching up with the system and it is expected to make it post tropical by tonight (local time).

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Models in recent days have been forecasting a gyre to form over Central America during early June and an invest moving into the region. Good chance we get storm 3.

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On 27/05/2020 at 14:17, summer blizzard said:

Models in recent days have been forecasting a gyre to form over Central America during early June and an invest moving into the region. Good chance we get storm 3.

Thankfully after June 1st don't want to break that record of 3 storms before official start to the season lol.

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Posted (edited)

TD3 is now here, has got a classic gyre look to it that you see in these EPAC/BoC type systems which throw out multiple systems, this gyre has now produced 2 such systems. IF Td3 goes inland don't be surprised to see it pump out a further storm, the GFS and a few other models have been showing just such formation IF this one does dive inland.

I see no reason why this won't be our 3rd named storm, an d several days in front of the current record holder of 2016.

2 early storms don't tend to mean much statistically, but 3 early storms tends to put the weight towards a more active season, especialy if one of them is from a pure tropical source like TD3 is.

Edited by kold weather
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Tropical Depression 3 is looking very healthy this morning with thunderstorms erupting in the centre of the low. It will probably become a Tropical Storm today. Regardless of wind strength, there is likely to be catastrophic flooding from Veracruz to Campeche and posibly even Merida especially if the ECM is correct. It shows the system touching the coastline and not moving much for 48-72 hours. I guess 20 inches of rainfall is possible in some locations.

After that the storm moves north across the GOM and becomes a hurricane before making landfall somewhere between Louisiana and Texas but of course too early to focus on that.

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Sub-Tropical Depression 4 has formed south of NewFoundland. Fish food and unlikely to strengthen.

There are indications in about 10 days that the Atlantic may become more favourable again.

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The tropics remain dead quiet as Saharan dust continues to affect many areas.

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Posted (edited)

I worked for an Insurance co in Antigua for three years until the end of 2019. I was there for IRMA & MARIA in 2017. As you can imagine Hurricane season was the talk of the office for 5 months, but everyone was only really concerned about the first 3 weeks of September. That is the month for the monster CAT 5++. Tropical Storms or CAT 1 & 2 storms was not a big concern. Sahara Dust always suppressed storms in June & July before the main Cape Verde storms got going.

I do worry about the Caribbean. There is a lot of poverty, a lot of uninsured properties and with COVID the tourist industry has taken a BIG hit. If the Islands were to get hit this year there would be unimaginable hardship. 

Edited by Cleeve Hill
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I think things will ramp up soon, the CCKW which is what MjVentrice has talked about, Eric Webb with a possible strong tropical wave coming out from Africa in 10-14 days time, warmer than normal SSTA'S in the atlantic around 5-15N above equator, these are all pointing to some strong devlopements soon, however probs wont be anything as good of a potential as in september of course. needs a close eye from a weeks time imo

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