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Gray-Wolf

Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

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And 93L becomes Eight. 92L will become Nine. Out of order.

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Very inconvenient of them. 

Visual sat of Florence, 92l and eight all in a row left to right. 

C90D870A-E07B-4446-8ABC-3DEC231FE0B6.png

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That really puts into perspective how much of a beast Eight is.

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Has the advantage of 92L removing dry air.

Track however is in 92L's favour in the long run.

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43 minutes ago, karyo said:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

Interesting that TD9 is expected to become a hurricane as it moves west towards the Leeward islands. However, the models seem to dissipate as it enters the Caribbean sea.

Are you looking at the 5 day track which always disappears at further timescales, it is forecast to be a 100mph hurricane by then....

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1 minute ago, matty40s said:

Are you looking at the 5 day track which always disappears at further timescales, it is forecast to be a 100mph hurricane by then....

No, I am looking at the GFS and ECM charts. 

Yesterday's 12z GFS was taking TD9 to the GOM after the Caribbean and making it a major hurricane there. But today's track is straight westerly.

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Td 9 is getting there, boarderline ts and night gets its name either this evening or tomorrow morning. 

91D0B53A-6291-4837-A986-60E7A2FB904E.png

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I've been watching these things since about 2004/2005.... not so long in the grand scheme, but after some 14 years I feel confident in saying...

... you don't see a graphical outlook like this every day!

1510363016_ScreenShot2018-09-12at12_08_05.thumb.png.87b08f897793083360cefa760809b10b.png

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8 hours ago, crimsone said:

I've been watching these things since about 2004/2005.... not so long in the grand scheme, but after some 14 years I feel confident in saying...

... you don't see a graphical outlook like this every day!

1510363016_ScreenShot2018-09-12at12_08_05.thumb.png.87b08f897793083360cefa760809b10b.png

Yes, this is quite a view!

Mind you, looking the outlook after the weekend, it looks like the Atlantic will become very quiet again.

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two_atl_2d0.png

To my untrained eye, I cant see a 3. Numbers 1 & 2 are there but the bulletin has a 3 as well.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a trough of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico have decreased since yesterday and the Air Force reconnaissance plane scheduled to investigate the system for today will likely be cancelled. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still form Thursday or Friday before the system reaches the western Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and gale-force winds. This system could gradually acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days while it meanders over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean, and before it becomes absorbed by a larger trough of low pressure. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Forecaster Avila

 

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System may develop near the Azores in around 5 days. Keep note as this will influence our own weather, forecast to drift west in no mans land.

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

System may develop near the Azores in around 5 days. Keep note as this will influence our own weather, forecast to drift west in no mans land.

(Disturbance 2, 5 day amber) Could develop as TS late next week?

dist 4 (rolling off w africa) is really low 5-10 lat but nothing much showing on mod development yet worthy of monitoring?

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91L is now a Cherry in the Caribbean. 

Both Euro and GFS forecasting an erratic movement north with impact as a system on the Gulf Coast. Yucatan and western Cuba also at risk but probably more rain related (western Cuba especially is basically going to see tropical moisture driven straight up). 

Euro makes it to TS/Hurricane strength. 

GFS makes it to 964mb.

gfs_midRH_watl_18.png

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