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Gray-Wolf

Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

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90L is up, & florence sooner rather than later?

but big question marks over a split ridge for a big fish/gap shooter or solid ridge keeping this on a lower lat?

heightening interest in the caribbean sea areas also?

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Yep, it's all coming alive! Models seem to show that Florence will be a fish storm, but not so much the others.

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Next upd highly likely to give official TS status (but already a TD?), surface level circulation, 35kn gusts, CDO more defined etc. strongest winds 35mph in SE sector,

WV looks to be popping on latest runs, COC 70-90 south of Praia (CV isle) but light to mod easterly shear is fringing the southern area at 200-150hPa?

been a while since anything this far east raised interest with favourable conditions ahead throughout?

 

 

td6.jpg

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Gom still looking strong, latest ec has a quickly spun up hurricane at the expect 3-5th range. 

Also it has the new td 6 travelling much further west. 

C77A99A1-3CDB-435F-B2E4-C3CA3497A507.png

1BEA28D6-BC2A-4CFA-899C-3A0D5B453CE5.png

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Nhc have upped the feature to 80% chance. Visual shows some turning but it’s struggling to close of the West to east movement to close off the system. This should pick up as it approaches Florida before it enters the gom. 

 

 

Also we we have a lot of convection leaving Africa as an open wave. 

7A53AA05-8A4F-4FED-B315-D45CAE506F5B.png

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Re Florence it seems the Bermuda / azores high is forecast to intensify. If so then instead of turning NW, Florence is due to stay more westerly and may be impact East coast US in the future. Certainly one to watch. 

With Florence already at 17 degrees N its v unlikely to effect the Caribbean. 😀

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Yep the feature talked about above is 91l which is different to Florence. 

91l is starting to develop rather quickly. It will pass south Florida before entering the gom. 

We also have Florence which is on its own thread. 

The third feature is the open wave that came off Africa behind Florence. 

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Sorry should have posted this up prior. It shows it far better than I could explain. A busy period coming up. 

3CC42DDD-3F57-4DD4-AB4F-E4EA5EFD52B9.png

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The invest 91 near Florida is. I’ve tracked by nhc as number 7. 

Looking at radar loops from key west it must be very very close to being Gordon. A very nice tight swirl still open in places but as he crosses the gs and enters the gom a very rapid increase is possible if not likely. 

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NHC have upped development of the yellow warning for the system leaving africa to 50%, so a tropical storm or hurricane Helene might well happen over the next 3-6 days. This is on a much more southerly route than Florence in front of it and the chances of it remaining a fish if it does develop are considerably less.

Behind this another system is on the coast of Africa and this might be yet another potential system, but along time before that it needs to be watched.

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92L at 80% in five days moving slow and west. 

Euro has this still around in ten days, GFS culls it.

Stronger it is the more it will feel Florence, it really needs to form but slow burn until Florence makes its turn nne.

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92L now at 90%. Both Euro and GFS have it headed west.

Edited by summer blizzard

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92l meto path. It will be affected by Florence and the ridge that Florence throws up behind her. 

C53A5DC2-7919-41A7-99E6-24616129B032.gif

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12 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

92L now at 90%. Both Euro and GFS have it headed west.

Eight by morning?

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Future T.S. 8 is looking quite angry and organised this morning. As it future number 9 just behind it. 

499582F0-602B-49D1-B16F-DD3D4FCC4E6F.png

69E5EC0A-D990-4268-AF32-63FD389A8D58.png

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Unfortunately 93L is forecast to follow too closely. Gfs has 92L being weakened by northerly shear from 93L before being culled by the islands. Euro has southerly shear from 92L culling 93L while 92L is caught and recurves.

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Very complicated. 92l is likely to be followed very soon surface wind are closed and it looks like a very good cdo. 

2888B50E-01A0-4443-A4D7-3B39B9CEB838.gif

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At what point does an invest become a depression? I'm surprised 92 isn't one yet.

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Circulation may not quite be closed although in open sea the nhc are never in much hurry.

Both GFS and Euro head straight west, GFS all the way into the Bay of Campeche. Given such a long track (Dean, Ivan) it might be a bit large.

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So it needs to be a closed system to become a depression? Pretty sure it was when I looked at the satelitte earlier.

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