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Gray-Wolf

Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

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Having looked at the other models, I think the ECM is overdoing Nate's strength.

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2 hours ago, karyo said:

Having looked at the other models, I think the ECM is overdoing Nate's strength.

I'd remind you that within 5 days the verification of the Euro over the other models is so much higher that its not even a contest. Indeed with a lot of tropical systems the past two seasons the Euro has verified as well as the consensus models. 

 

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Interesting location for a possible invest, this one...

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-07 at 16.02.28.png59d8ed7b5394f_ScreenShot2017-10-07at16_06_10.thumb.png.3e52f86d871055b1df7b42692f04d111.png

 

Quote
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nate, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 700 miles
southwest of the Azores.  This system is beginning to acquire
subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or
subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts
toward the southwest.  Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to
become hostile for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

Edited by crimsone
added visible and forecast discussion from NHC

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On ‎05‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 00:57, summer blizzard said:

I'd remind you that within 5 days the verification of the Euro over the other models is so much higher that its not even a contest. Indeed with a lot of tropical systems the past two seasons the Euro has verified as well as the consensus models. 

 

Wait a minute summer, that was the comment for the 12z ECM run that had Nate as a cat 3 hurricane. It dropped the idea by the next morning and didn't pick it up again so I wouldn't say it verified well on this occasion.

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17 minutes ago, karyo said:

Wait a minute summer, that was the comment for the 12z ECM run that had Nate as a cat 3 hurricane. It dropped the idea by the next morning and didn't pick it up again so I wouldn't say it verified well on this occasion.

Yeah it caved to GFS on track thursday morning albeit it was better with intensity.

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17 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Yeah it caved to GFS on track thursday morning albeit it was better with intensity.

GFS had a nondescript flabby low aside from track wobble ECM has had a superior grip of Nate IMO.

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Goes to show even the experts are not infallible Hurricanes have a mind of their own Nate’s forward speed was too great oh dear sound like Boris Johnson.. 

The things people will do?

 

Edited by Daniel*

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21 hours ago, crimsone said:

91L is still trying very hard to become fully tropical. 

Loop (will change in a few hours, obs....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/html5-vis-short.html

Image, just after the Terminator passes over...
59da1925e847f_ScreenShot2017-10-08at13_24_26.thumb.png.2e674df16ce7b1886024be823215a5e2.png59da1925391be_ScreenShot2017-10-08at13_24_44.thumb.png.bb98155077ef3b7f4331922e63a2b9e5.png59da18804eeec_ScreenShot2017-10-08at13_19_48.thumb.png.3e0f60d26e3ce6121eee57e372cca965.png

Its now officially a Tropical Depression.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/090833.shtml

Predicted it will become a Tropical Storm, but they are expecting it to not move much. Which is good as its far too close to Europe, and its projected movement is towards Europe.

Edited by cowdog

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9 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Its now officially a Tropical Depression.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/090833.shtml

Predicted it will become a Tropical Storm, but they are expecting it to not move much. Which is good as its far too close to Europe, and its projected movement is towards Europe.

The ECM has this system tracking between Madeira and the Canaries. Could be an interesting holiday for some.

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40 minutes ago, karyo said:

The ECM has this system tracking between Madeira and the Canaries. Could be an interesting holiday for some.

It has formed, quite literally, smack bang in the middle of the North Atlantic!. Quite unusual! (map of 31N 40W)

59db589a21f89_ScreenShot2017-10-09at12_05_58.thumb.png.96c94e8aa0e3976f37fe4d39d815630c.png

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The disturbance is now invest 92L, 50% chance of development within 5 days, and 20% within 48h

Currently just NE of Puerto Rico.

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2017 is about to pass 1995 and 2004 for ACE total to become the second most active season in satellite records (the NOAA have published ACE figures for seasons before which now make 1933 the most active season on record). 

 

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Here's the full video of the NASA simulation posted to the Ophelia thread. The whole season's storms in the form of aerosols.

 

Full-screen it, it's beautiful.

Edited by alr1970
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Whoopsie! posten on #gita's thread but it should be here!!!

Well the first forecast for the 2018 season is out.

Colorado state Uni is going for 14 storms,7 hurricanes and 3 majors.

I think we'll see more majors that this due to the 'new' way we see them rapidly spin up?

5 majors and 8 hurricanes is more like it for me?

With a neutral ENSO and low solar I think we'll see a long season.

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On 4/7/2018 at 19:40, Gray-Wolf said:

Whoopsie! posten on #gita's thread but it should be here!!!

Well the first forecast for the 2018 season is out.

Colorado state Uni is going for 14 storms,7 hurricanes and 3 majors.

I think we'll see more majors that this due to the 'new' way we see them rapidly spin up?

5 majors and 8 hurricanes is more like it for me?

With a neutral ENSO and low solar I think we'll see a long season.

Seems to have been quite active this season... wouldn't be surprised to see a season on the quiet side coming up.

That said, if we don't see many hurricanes, I expect to see at least one of the majors being pretty darned major. That heat has to go somewhere!

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I think we're back into the 'Naturals' that we dropped out of back in 05' ( since 2014 ) but we are warmer ( have more energy in the system now) than back in the early noughties?

We saw the changes over the Pacific cyclones/typhoons through the Atlantic 'quiet period' with storms growing faster and staying strong longer and we saw this transfer into the Atlantic basin last year with storms 'bombing' and maintaining major status for longer?

I have my own thinking on just what drove the high shear environment over the Caribbean and why we saw so much Saharan dust over the quiet period but, to my thinking, those 'forcings' do not exist today.

As such I am expecting an 'Average' season but it will be overlain by these new qualities of faster development and deepening and then maintaining major status for longer?

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In ENSO terms the Aug-Oct period will probably average cold-neutral with the QBO headed westerly.

So i'll go for an above average season but not on the scale of last year.

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On 4/7/2018 at 19:40, Gray-Wolf said:

................."

I think we'll see more majors that this due to the 'new' way we see them rapidly spin up?

5 majors and 8 hurricanes is more like it for me?

With a neutral ENSO and low solar I think we'll see a long season.

Hi GW - are you (or anyone else) able to expand on the low solar bit of the comment please? :) 

I'm aware of the arguments of how  sun spot cycle may impact on the NH winter weather/climate but was not aware of any links to tropical storm cycles.

Edited by swebby

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I just have a notion that in a warming world the impacts that we know low solar to produce over NH winter in the north Atlantic has a parting shot over the Arctic Basin in early melt season. Such events can then lead to a big melt momentum being built up which will then impact the surface melt and bottom melt periods of the season bringing us potential open water Arctic ( and the temp implication for that season this would bring)

We also have seen 'heat domes' of damaging proportions over inner continental areas during low solar( combined with AGW forcings) like the 2010 russia drought?)

This propensity to HP must show impact on the lower Latitudes and so influence to 'seeds' of hurricane formation and the environment they then grow in?

As for this season? Well we appear to be rapidly losing the 'dirty' pollution from China so the downwind dimming of the Pacific is ending and the Atlantic/Pacific basins are again finding Parity  and not the imbalance we saw post 05' with crazy upper level shear over the Caribbean as the Atlantic tried to restore balance with the Pacific and the tweaked Trades that were overturning any warming across that region of the Pacific and burying it in deeper waters.

With Atlantic Hurricanes not not so molested by the upper atmosphere ( and excessive Saharan dust which was also part of the issue post 05') so they can grow full size without their tops being ripped off, coupled with this evolution to faster deepening storms that stay major for longer, means that we must lay over theses new developments onto the forecast we recoeve ( well for me it does ). Storm numbers may remain the same but if storms are forming up faster then more of those stgorms , than in our past, will make it into 'Canes and more of those 'canes will make majors.

I'm ready to be proven wrong but we will see what we will see. I do not think USA will get off scot free but I'd also worry about 'recurves' and the med/NW Europe chances of taking a big hit?

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Interesting comments. I'll follow this thread over the next 6 months and hoping those Majors avoid the Caribbean Islands. The Economic loss for these small island threatens so many businesses and people. St Maarten, Anguilla, BVI, Dominica are still struggling to cope. Puerto Rico is worse but I dont know what the latest is there. 

We are a leading property insurer, based in Antigua and a quiet year would suit everyone or if there are going to happen lets see them keep south i.e Barbados, St Lucia. 

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