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Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

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Nicole has become a category 2 hurricane and is headed for Bermuda.

Also if we take average ACE as being 90 then we are very likely going to be 130% of average by the time Nicole dies. 2011 had 126 (14 behind currently) and 2012 had 133 (21 behind currently) so it's likely that we'll end up similar to those seasons. If we can squeeze out another hurricane or two that can last for a week and get to 140 then we'd have 150% of average and have the most active season since 2010. 

 

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3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Nicole has become a category 2 hurricane and is headed for Bermuda.

Also if we take average ACE as being 90 then we are very likely going to be 130% of average by the time Nicole dies. 2011 had 126 (14 behind currently) and 2012 had 133 (21 behind currently) so it's likely that we'll end up similar to those seasons. If we can squeeze out another hurricane or two that can last for a week and get to 140 then we'd have 150% of average and have the most active season since 2010. 

 

SB...

Not an expert, but I do enjoy following your posts.

For us less experienced could you explain the ACE system for us?

If its long and torrtuous, then tell me to Search myself.!!!

I will understand.

MIA

  .

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6 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

SB...

Not an expert, but I do enjoy following your posts.

For us less experienced could you explain the ACE system for us?

If its long and torrtuous, then tell me to Search myself.!!!

I will understand.

MIA

  .

I shan't bore you with the math (mainly because i don't bother calculating myself) but essentially ACE is defined as accumulated cyclone energy and i suppose gives a season more credit for having lived or very strong systems since in simple terms it's a measure of duration and strength. Ivan for example was not the strongest hurricane ever to live but it tops the list in the satellite era because of how strong it stayed and how long it lasted (Matthew ranks 8th).

ACE divided by storm total is probably the best measure of quality in a season that you can get. 1961 for example only had 9 systems which you'd look at and think was a poor season however 7 of those became major hurricanes including Carla which formed in the south Caribbean (a rare place to form and now known in hurricane circles as 'the carla cradle' and went on to become a 175mph hurricane.

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We're hosting another hurricane related AMA (Q&A) over on reddit.com/r/science.

-----------------------------------------

Science AMA Series: Hi Reddit, I'm Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. I'm here to talk about the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season specifically as well as any other hurricane/typhoon related questions you have. Ask me anything!

I am Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. I worked for over 15 years with the late Dr. Bill Gray, a renowned scientist who conducted groundbreaking studies in hurricane genesis, structure and intensity change as well as pioneering Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction. While our Tropical Meteorology Project is best known among the general public for the seasonal hurricane predictions, I conduct research on a variety of hurricane-related topics including shorter-term prediction as well as potential future changes in tropical cyclone activity driven both by natural variability as well as anthropogenic causes. I maintain a very active presence on social media through my Twitter feed (@philklotzbach) where I provide frequent updates on current global tropical cyclone activity and compare them with historical statistics. I also maintain global real-time hurricane statistics. In cooperation with the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, I helped create arepository of all publicly-available seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin from various government agencies, universities and private forecasting companies.

Currently, I am working on a variety of research projects, including the generation of an updated global tropical cyclone climatology as well as a paper on the life and legacy of Dr. Gray. I am also closely monitoring the potential shift away from the active Atlantic hurricane era that we have been in since 1995. I was lead author on a paper last year that raised the question that we might be moving out of the active era for Atlantic hurricanes.

I look forward to chatting with you about all things hurricane!

I’ll be back at noon EST (9 am PST, 5 pm UTC) to answer your questions, ask me anything!

------------------------------------------

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/579v6t/science_ama_series_hi_reddit_im_phil_klotzbach_a/

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Living and working for a leading insurer based in Antigua for the next 3 years. Only a few weeks to go before it's all eyes west Africa coast for those first tropical waves. It's all the talk in the office, plus earthquakes!  

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Want to enter a 2017 tropical season forecast contest?

I have been running these on American Weather Forum for several years.

To enter, you would need to join that forum and then follow the link below

Entries are welcome into early June without penalty.

This is where to go if you're interested ...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/

Thanks. 

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First decent tropical wave of the season now offshore from west africa. From NHC

 ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa yesterday extends from 13N20W to 04N20W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is embedded in a deep moisture surge and inverted 700 mb trough. An area of numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 15W and 25W.

 

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One can never trust the CFS but this is a beautiful forecast..

DCIRVpbXYAA7KUG.jpg

Lower than average shear in the main development region. 

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Well we have 'bret' and '3' to focus on! Storm 3 will probably get a name diring their afternoon as convection intensifies again? Looking very wet for some of the Southern States?

As for Bret? I think he might have rough weather ahead?

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94L at 70% for development within 5 days. A fish but it's great to see the main development region so active this early in the season, it bodes very well down the line.

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Nothing came of 94L not even and rainy weekend, here in Antigua. In fact cloudless skies this afternoon and 34c !!  94L might however reappear later this week around the Bahamas. 

Onto the next one. 

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It took a while but first named Atlantic storm is on the map, TS Don. ESE of Barbados, its way south and likely to stay south with the track being West. This storm developed very quickly. Some strengthening expect but unlikely to become a Hurricance.

it is fairly common for named storms to take stay south in the early part of the season, so nothing unusual there. 

We have stopped writing new property insurance busieness in Grenada, st Lucia, Barbados and St. Vincent until storm passes.

The talk on Twitter now (Philip Klotzbach) is that the season shows more signs of active usual activity. 

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It seems that Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic is keeping things quiet.

Does anybody know why the dust has this effect?

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8 hours ago, karyo said:

It seems that Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic is keeping things quiet.

Does anybody know why the dust has this effect?

Very simply, tropical convection needs a moist atmosphere at height to get the hurricane building towers to develop and thus form a stable core. The dry Saharan air aloft inhibits this ability and it also cause disruptive shear.

There is a very strong CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave) due in the Atlantic next week - that should moisten out the upper layers and may lead to some development for later in August.

Impacts of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on Environmental Conditions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00305.1

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Thanks Nouska for the explanation. I understand the dry air bit but I was wondering if the dust was inhibiting convection too.

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Saharan Dust: How Does it Impact Atlantic Storms?

Share|
 

The Saharan Air Layer, or known more commonly as Saharan Dust, is a layer of tiny aerosols like sand, dirt, and dust that occasionally push from east to west across the tropical Atlantic Ocean during hurricane season. These aerosols originate over the very hot and dry deserts of Africa, like the Saharan Desert, and sometimes get picked up by African Easterly Waves which push westward from Africa into the Atlantic Ocean.

The Saharan Air Layer is a well-mixed dry pocket of air that usually resides between 5,000 and 15,000 feet above sea level. Since one of the key ingredients for tropical cyclone development is a deep feed of moisture, Saharan Dust often acts to inhibit tropical development. Research suggests that there are three primary reasons Saharan Dust has a negative impact on tropical development:

1) A surge in the mid-level African Easterly Jet increases the vertical wind shear. 2) The inclusion, or drawing in, of dry air into a tropical system 3) An enhanced trade wind inversion which acts to stabilizes the atmosphere. A stable atmosphere will make it more difficult for deep convection to develop.

Once a pocket of Saharan Dust begins moving westward over the Atlantic Ocean, it is relatively easy to track by using certain infrared satellite products. The algorithm in some infrared products is sensitive to dry, dusty air and, therefore, can track when pockets of this kind of air move from place to place.

Many factors go into forecasting the track and strength of a tropical system. Knowing whether or not a tropical cyclone will have Saharan Dust in its vicinity is one factor that can determine the cyclone's intensity.

 

Info credit to Accuweather here https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-glossary/saharan-dust-how-does-it-devel-1/14307927

and a more head-twanging in depth article about it here http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1309104215303123

All very interesting and something I was unaware of until you asked the question, so thanks for making me go look :good:

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he is very hopeful, however, neither system is likely to progress to hurricane status as the ongoing conditions are not favourable.

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So, the Atlantic now has our attention down here in the tropics. Its all eyes towards Africa. 

This latest wave seems to have some legs in it so we will be watching that closely over the next few days. 

For us in the Insurance industry this will be the topic of conversation over the next week or so.

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