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Gray-Wolf

Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

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Seasonal ACE now above average thanks to the systems over the past six weeks. 

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Hi there,

I'm looking for members of the community who might be interested in talking to me about a TV series we are developing - a documentary series for a major broadcaster. We are looking for storm and extreme weather enthusiasts from the UK who either have chased weather or have a thirst to chase weather - around the world. I have tried to get hold of a moderator to ask for permission/advice to post a message - but can't seem to send messages as a new member. If anyone has any advice; if you or someone you know might be interested - please get in touch!

 

Warm wishes

'Tilly Tempest'

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Tropical storm Oscar?
 
A low-pressure system in the Central Atlantic has a 90 percent chance of developing into a named storm in the next 48 hours.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

Shower activity associated with a low pressure system centered about 1,000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has become more concentrated during the past several hours. 

The low is expected to move generally northward over the next couple of days into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development.

A tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form by early this weekend.  If it develops, it'll be named Oscar and could bring rough surf next week.

Spaghetti models:  Projected paths of active storms

After that time, the system is forecast to turn west well to the north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.

At this time, the disturbance is not considered a threat to Florida. Conditions can change so residents should continue to monitor the system.

More: NOAA: Super Typhoon Yutu strongest storm to ever hit US soil, with winds at 178 mph

More: What's the difference between subtropical and tropical storms?

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: 90 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days: 90 percent.

 

Published 8:43 PM EDT Oct 25, 2018
5eef0829-0d00-4921-a132-d6f0928a1846-tropics_1025_8pm.thumb.png.63716bac20976b5cf6cddace4fcc448a.png

https://eu.tcpalm.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2018/10/25/tropical-storm-forming-atlantic-forecast-path/1759690002/

 

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A tropical wave close to the Leeward islands has a 90% chance to become a tropical depression in the next few days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

If it develops into a tropical storm it will be named Patty.

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23 hours ago, karyo said:

A tropical wave close to the Leeward islands has a 90% chance to become a tropical depression in the next few days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

If it develops into a tropical storm it will be named Patty.

Has 30% for me. 

Can#t see much of a chance for it, you can see the sub-tropical jet racing north east. 

two_atl_2d0.png

Asuming no more formations then our ACE total has finished above average. Behind 2010, 2017 and 2016 this decade but on par with 2011 and 2012. 

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12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Has 30% for me. 

Can#t see much of a chance for it, you can see the sub-tropical jet racing north east. 

two_atl_2d0.png

Asuming no more formations then our ACE total has finished above average. Behind 2010, 2017 and 2016 this decade but on par with 2011 and 2012. 

23 hours ago it was given a 90% chance but today they have downgraded significantly the chances.

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Being ripped apart quickly by the looks of it.

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