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Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

There is some evidence to suggest that a more hostile main development region tends to allow for more activity taking place in the Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico compared to normal simply because the waves have not developed and curved north. The flip side of course is the shorter season. 

1961 is not a bad example. Eleven storms but three of those were major and landfalled in the Gulf/Carribean.

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

Things are about to change in the tropical Atlantic. The Sahara dust which seems to have been particularly strong this year is not subsiding and the SST’s are now around average (those cooler SST’s are diminishing). 

2 recent August forecasts are now saying an average season (forecasters were talking below average the last couple of months). 

This is not good news for us in the Caribbean 

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

That should have read are now subsiding - oops.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

DkZmBTjV4AEfQBq.jpg:large

Yes, it looks like a window in around ten days time. 

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

The Caribbean will be happy to hear that after last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

two_atl_5d0 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Wave leaving Africa is at 20% in five days. Recent runs have been suggesting more development. Looking at zonal wind anomolies it does look like we have a window for activity in the Atlantic with reduced trades.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

So the Atlantics predicted to finally awaken?

a few models are progging development of the next wave leaving W Africa late weds/early thurs. (but in all honesty a previous one has currently continued and made it out to 37` W with thunderstorms spawning then relenting repeatedly?)

FWIW the new FV3 GFS (experimental, to work alongside the GFS planned for next year) has the next wave exiting as an immediate LLC finishing with a 960mb fish off the east US coast so this will be a good baseline test for it? but it (FV3) receives data later than current GFS so its validity is highly suspect like other lesser models & may well be nothing more than eye candy for what`s been a dull start for the ATL basin.

 

thurs 30th wave off Africa progression.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks
13 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Just about all the models are making a fan-tail of the developments now so lets try and follow to see who nails what? :)

(But I`m sure levi will outperform joe as usual?) :D

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Is there a really easy to understand infographic I can use to explain the difference between a subtropical, tropical and extratropical storm to someone?

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks
6 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Is there a really easy to understand infographic I can use to explain the difference between a subtropical, tropical and extratropical storm to someone?

I dont know what an "infographic" is? but i can offer a simple example that warm cores are tropically derived from high temp waters and thus grow off them while cold core extra-tropicals are maintained through a meeting of warm and cold air masses? Albeit derived from a sub tropical disturbance or not? If thats incorrect or not i dont know? :D

Their must be something in the tutorilas here tho?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

One of the most boring seasons in years might finally be about to deliver. The gom looks like it will provide a very fertile ground come 3-4 sept onwards. Anything entering it might well spin up quickly. 

With the moisture and instability coming across the Atlantic. It seems pretty certain that something will develop. 

Ecm has developed something for the last few runs often from open waves. 

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

Latest TWO just out @2pm (noaa local EDT time) upgrades to a "vigorous" low expected to form Thursday off EAfrica coast with 60% 5day formation prospects,

Invest with closed LLC tomorrow?

Dare it be said the entire basin from W Africa to the TX/Mexico Ecoast is alive and primed?

 

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8 hours ago, mezzacyclone said:

Latest TWO just out @2pm (noaa local EDT time) upgrades to a "vigorous" low expected to form Thursday off EAfrica coast with 60% 5day formation prospects,

Invest with closed LLC tomorrow?

Dare it be said the entire basin from W Africa to the TX/Mexico Ecoast is alive and primed?

 

Interesting feature, GFS/GEFS fairly certain that it will develop. Mid-Atlantic system the ensembles have it possibly affecting the Azores or Canadian Maritimes later on but op runs have had it variously heading our way. Either aiding ridging or stormy weather mid-September, something to watch.

Appropriate moment to link to Alan Brammer's experimental GEFS storm genesis tracker - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/

Edited by Interitus
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16 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Interesting feature, GFS/GEFS fairly certain that it will develop. Mid-Atlantic system the ensembles have it possibly affecting the Azores or Canadian Maritimes later on but op runs have had it variously heading our way. Either aiding ridging or stormy weather mid-September, something to watch.

Appropriate moment to link to Alan Brammer's experimental GEFS storm genesis tracker - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/

And tracking maps - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/tracks/

(In fact explore his site, some good stuff there such as the GFS/ECWMF comparison maps)

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
On 28/08/2018 at 16:51, Lauren said:

Is there a really easy to understand infographic I can use to explain the difference between a subtropical, tropical and extratropical storm to someone?

I wrote this recently but you would have to search for the core diagrams. This was more about the naming https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9102-tropical-cyclones---plain-sub-post-or-extra-a-guide-to-low-pressure-naming-with-ernesto 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Now at 80%. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

I wish I was in the Cabo Verde now. Those islands rarely get any rain so I bet they are looking forward to this developing system.

Other than that it looks like a fish (which is not exciting)  but at least it could change the pattern in the north Atlantic which may prove interesting for us.

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
8 minutes ago, karyo said:

I wish I was in the Cabo Verde now. Those islands rarely get any rain so I bet they are looking forward to this developing system.

Other than that it looks like a fish (which is not exciting)  but at least it could change the pattern in the north Atlantic which may prove interesting for us.

Indeed. I went October 2013 after they'd just had a rare tropical storm and the landscape had come alive. Beautiful.

I think it's fairly clear we will be seeing Tropical Storm Florence at the very least and models are showing other systems popping up over the coming days. Although I hope the Caribbean gets a rest from anything too big after last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Indeed. I went October 2013 after they'd just had a rare tropical storm and the landscape had come alive. Beautiful.

I think it's fairly clear we will be seeing Tropical Storm Florence at the very least and models are showing other systems popping up over the coming days. Although I hope the Caribbean gets a rest from anything too big after last year.

I can imagine! I went in January 2015 and everything was completely dry with hardly any vegetation. They pray for rain there. 

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