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Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

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Having looked at the other models, I think the ECM is overdoing Nate's strength.

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2 hours ago, karyo said:

Having looked at the other models, I think the ECM is overdoing Nate's strength.

I'd remind you that within 5 days the verification of the Euro over the other models is so much higher that its not even a contest. Indeed with a lot of tropical systems the past two seasons the Euro has verified as well as the consensus models. 

 

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Posted (edited)

Interesting location for a possible invest, this one...

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-07 at 16.02.28.png59d8ed7b5394f_ScreenShot2017-10-07at16_06_10.thumb.png.3e52f86d871055b1df7b42692f04d111.png

 

Quote
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nate, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 700 miles
southwest of the Azores.  This system is beginning to acquire
subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or
subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts
toward the southwest.  Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to
become hostile for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

Edited by crimsone
added visible and forecast discussion from NHC

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On ‎05‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 00:57, summer blizzard said:

I'd remind you that within 5 days the verification of the Euro over the other models is so much higher that its not even a contest. Indeed with a lot of tropical systems the past two seasons the Euro has verified as well as the consensus models. 

 

Wait a minute summer, that was the comment for the 12z ECM run that had Nate as a cat 3 hurricane. It dropped the idea by the next morning and didn't pick it up again so I wouldn't say it verified well on this occasion.

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17 minutes ago, karyo said:

Wait a minute summer, that was the comment for the 12z ECM run that had Nate as a cat 3 hurricane. It dropped the idea by the next morning and didn't pick it up again so I wouldn't say it verified well on this occasion.

Yeah it caved to GFS on track thursday morning albeit it was better with intensity.

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17 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Yeah it caved to GFS on track thursday morning albeit it was better with intensity.

GFS had a nondescript flabby low aside from track wobble ECM has had a superior grip of Nate IMO.

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Posted (edited)

Goes to show even the experts are not infallible Hurricanes have a mind of their own Nate’s forward speed was too great oh dear sound like Boris Johnson.. 

The things people will do?

 

Edited by Daniel*

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, crimsone said:

91L is still trying very hard to become fully tropical. 

Loop (will change in a few hours, obs....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/html5-vis-short.html

Image, just after the Terminator passes over...
59da1925e847f_ScreenShot2017-10-08at13_24_26.thumb.png.2e674df16ce7b1886024be823215a5e2.png59da1925391be_ScreenShot2017-10-08at13_24_44.thumb.png.bb98155077ef3b7f4331922e63a2b9e5.png59da18804eeec_ScreenShot2017-10-08at13_19_48.thumb.png.3e0f60d26e3ce6121eee57e372cca965.png

Its now officially a Tropical Depression.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/090833.shtml

Predicted it will become a Tropical Storm, but they are expecting it to not move much. Which is good as its far too close to Europe, and its projected movement is towards Europe.

Edited by cowdog

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9 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Its now officially a Tropical Depression.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/090833.shtml

Predicted it will become a Tropical Storm, but they are expecting it to not move much. Which is good as its far too close to Europe, and its projected movement is towards Europe.

The ECM has this system tracking between Madeira and the Canaries. Could be an interesting holiday for some.

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40 minutes ago, karyo said:

The ECM has this system tracking between Madeira and the Canaries. Could be an interesting holiday for some.

It has formed, quite literally, smack bang in the middle of the North Atlantic!. Quite unusual! (map of 31N 40W)

59db589a21f89_ScreenShot2017-10-09at12_05_58.thumb.png.96c94e8aa0e3976f37fe4d39d815630c.png

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A disturbance east of Barbuda may give us the next storm...

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The disturbance is now invest 92L, 50% chance of development within 5 days, and 20% within 48h

Currently just NE of Puerto Rico.

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2017 is about to pass 1995 and 2004 for ACE total to become the second most active season in satellite records (the NOAA have published ACE figures for seasons before which now make 1933 the most active season on record). 

 

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