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Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread


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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Yet another one that will need its own thread it's now td15 and will be maria  very soon. 

If the track looks similar then according to nhc it will be identical to Irma. They also have it quickly reaching hurricane strength. 

Currently its looks very nice imho nice llcc structure and stunning outflow. Already easily a ts imho.

watch out for rapid intensification  

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Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Yet another one that will need its own thread it's now td15 and will be maria  very soon. 

If the track looks similar then according to nhc it will be identical to Irma. They also have it quickly reaching hurricane strength. 

Currently its looks very nice imho nice llcc structure and stunning outflow. Already easily a ts imho.

watch out for rapid intensification  

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Horrendous news for the Caribbean islands. 

Lets hope it turns poleward quickly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Although it's only a td officially. I can't stress how good the presentation is. If a hurricane had this kind of shape I would consider it good. The upper high is clearly providing fantastic outflow ssts already at 29c low shear and lots o moisture. 

Nhc are obviously concerned and have already planned recon for this time tomorrow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Cimss have just confirmed this is a tropical storm Maria nhc will follow shortly.  Dvorak has been initialised at 40kts 

Maria is rapidly getting its act together. Gfs had her going to cat 5 ec to cat 4

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

Oh NO, yet again. This one seems to be forming so quickly that a lot of people in the Caribbean will be unaware. 

I thought this was going to stay south (St Lucia, Grenada, Dominica) but the track now is more towards the Northern Leewards, where it is least welcome. Forecast to be Tropical Storm tomorrow and then a Hurricane Tues AM around Antigua. We can cope with a CAT 1 or 2 but really dont want to see a major hurricane again. 

With a ridge developing across the US mid week I can see this system being steered into US mainland and no out to sea. 

What is unclear with this Hurricane develop into a CAT 3 or above ?

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

A hurricane called Maria, definately not a stage play for the Carribean.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

latest72hrs.gif

The last frames of the above seem to show a very big wave falling off Africa?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

We have now passed the 150 mark for ACE. Our season is officially 'hyperactive'. 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
33 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

Isn't that a wee bit north for formation. Is it droping south or something?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
10 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Isn't that a wee bit north for formation. Is it droping south or something?

 

I think maybe NNW? Then phasing with the jet, although I could be wrong... 

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
6 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Isn't that a wee bit north for formation. Is it droping south or something?

 

In 2005/2006 (I forget which), we had one form around and about the Bay of Biscay.

That was fun.

Edit:
Sorry - I remembered somewhat incorrectly.

It was Hurricane Vince, which eventually made landfall as a TD near Huelva, Spain, one cloudy, rainy October 11th (2005)

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
1 hour ago, Thunder Snow said:

i see lees formed again 

OOh! Lee is currently performing a loop de loop. It'll be interesting to see where the models take it from that far north and east

Screen Shot 2017-09-23 at 00.22.10.png

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, crimsone said:

In 2005/2006 (I forget which), we had one form around and about the Bay of Biscay.

That was fun.

Edit:
Sorry - I remembered somewhat incorrectly.

It was Hurricane Vince, which eventually made landfall as a TD near Huelva, Spain, one cloudy, rainy October 11th (2005)

I think it was last year, a powerful low that was like a huricanr but smaller did form in the bay of biscay, then made land fall in spain and disapated quickly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
10 hours ago, crimsone said:

OOh! Lee is currently performing a loop de loop. It'll be interesting to see where the models take it from that far north and east

Screen Shot 2017-09-23 at 00.22.10.png

NHC discussion http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/230855.shtml indicates that the models are all over the place with Lee.  The large wave that exited Africa on Monday, highlighted by GW below, looks to have caught up with Lee.  Chances of it sinking SE and curving back round towards the Caribbean? 

On 18/09/2017 at 19:58, Gray-Wolf said:

latest72hrs.gif

The last frames of the above seem to show a very big wave falling off Africa?

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Lee is now post-tropical. 

Maria will be extra-tropical tomorrow. 

Neither of the the two current waves look like developing. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Lee is now post-tropical. 

Maria will be extra-tropical tomorrow. 

Neither of the the two current waves look like developing. 

You mean we get a break!?

WooHoo! :D

One tires of too much death and destruction.

To be fair, if anything developed at the moment there's about a million ways it could trip over the wake of one of the most recent two anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Alert, Alert. All eyes on the Carla cradle. 

90L has been declared right down south and the models have only in the last day latched onto development in the very short term. Euro and GFS have cat 1/2 into the Gulf Coast. 

Conditions look absolutely superb for the first 72 hours with 90% humidity, 31C sea temperatures and slow motion. The system gets caught by a front in the Gulf and so will probably weaken upon landfall as it speeds up but fast moving canes don't lose much intensity fast. 

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According to the SHIPS model there is a 37% chance of this being a 50KT Tropical Storm by this time tomorrow. 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

At some point today, 90L became TD16. It's forecast to cross the bump of Honduras and Nicaragua, thread the needle past the Yucatan Peninsula, and landfall on the Florida Peninsula as a hurricane.

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