Gray-Wolf

atlantic hurricane season
Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

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Nicole has become a category 2 hurricane and is headed for Bermuda.

Also if we take average ACE as being 90 then we are very likely going to be 130% of average by the time Nicole dies. 2011 had 126 (14 behind currently) and 2012 had 133 (21 behind currently) so it's likely that we'll end up similar to those seasons. If we can squeeze out another hurricane or two that can last for a week and get to 140 then we'd have 150% of average and have the most active season since 2010. 

 

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3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Nicole has become a category 2 hurricane and is headed for Bermuda.

Also if we take average ACE as being 90 then we are very likely going to be 130% of average by the time Nicole dies. 2011 had 126 (14 behind currently) and 2012 had 133 (21 behind currently) so it's likely that we'll end up similar to those seasons. If we can squeeze out another hurricane or two that can last for a week and get to 140 then we'd have 150% of average and have the most active season since 2010. 

 

SB...

Not an expert, but I do enjoy following your posts.

For us less experienced could you explain the ACE system for us?

If its long and torrtuous, then tell me to Search myself.!!!

I will understand.

MIA

  .

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6 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

SB...

Not an expert, but I do enjoy following your posts.

For us less experienced could you explain the ACE system for us?

If its long and torrtuous, then tell me to Search myself.!!!

I will understand.

MIA

  .

I shan't bore you with the math (mainly because i don't bother calculating myself) but essentially ACE is defined as accumulated cyclone energy and i suppose gives a season more credit for having lived or very strong systems since in simple terms it's a measure of duration and strength. Ivan for example was not the strongest hurricane ever to live but it tops the list in the satellite era because of how strong it stayed and how long it lasted (Matthew ranks 8th).

ACE divided by storm total is probably the best measure of quality in a season that you can get. 1961 for example only had 9 systems which you'd look at and think was a poor season however 7 of those became major hurricanes including Carla which formed in the south Caribbean (a rare place to form and now known in hurricane circles as 'the carla cradle' and went on to become a 175mph hurricane.

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We're hosting another hurricane related AMA (Q&A) over on reddit.com/r/science.

-----------------------------------------

Science AMA Series: Hi Reddit, I'm Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. I'm here to talk about the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season specifically as well as any other hurricane/typhoon related questions you have. Ask me anything!

I am Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. I worked for over 15 years with the late Dr. Bill Gray, a renowned scientist who conducted groundbreaking studies in hurricane genesis, structure and intensity change as well as pioneering Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction. While our Tropical Meteorology Project is best known among the general public for the seasonal hurricane predictions, I conduct research on a variety of hurricane-related topics including shorter-term prediction as well as potential future changes in tropical cyclone activity driven both by natural variability as well as anthropogenic causes. I maintain a very active presence on social media through my Twitter feed (@philklotzbach) where I provide frequent updates on current global tropical cyclone activity and compare them with historical statistics. I also maintain global real-time hurricane statistics. In cooperation with the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, I helped create arepository of all publicly-available seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin from various government agencies, universities and private forecasting companies.

Currently, I am working on a variety of research projects, including the generation of an updated global tropical cyclone climatology as well as a paper on the life and legacy of Dr. Gray. I am also closely monitoring the potential shift away from the active Atlantic hurricane era that we have been in since 1995. I was lead author on a paper last year that raised the question that we might be moving out of the active era for Atlantic hurricanes.

I look forward to chatting with you about all things hurricane!

I’ll be back at noon EST (9 am PST, 5 pm UTC) to answer your questions, ask me anything!

------------------------------------------

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/579v6t/science_ama_series_hi_reddit_im_phil_klotzbach_a/

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Living and working for a leading insurer based in Antigua for the next 3 years. Only a few weeks to go before it's all eyes west Africa coast for those first tropical waves. It's all the talk in the office, plus earthquakes!  

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      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season
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      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82528
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      http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
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