atlantic hurricane season Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

[summer blizzard]

Both Euro and old GFS develop the wave near the south east US.

[Lauren]

Looks like there's more development coming off the African coast too. Think things are finally firing.

[karyo]

NOAA is now giving a 20% chance of development to the trough east of the Leeward islands. This one is moving westwards

The low east of Florida now has a 70% chance and all models develop it to some extend. It is expected to move northeastwards though, out in the Atlantic.

[Lauren]

Hold on to your butts, here we go!

[summer blizzard]

Not noticed any model development of the wave in the MDR but conditions are generally good.

[summer blizzard]

I spoke too soon, both GFS models and GEM develop 99L and a recent Ascat pass shows a weak but almost closed circulation. This could become a Tropical Depression fairly quickly.

[summer blizzard]

98L now at 70% within 48 hours.

99L upgraded to 40%.

[summer blizzard]

99L upgraded to 60%, finally a proper system to track.

[Lauren]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Development thats exploded over the next 5 days is mad. Season is kicking off with a bang. Potentially look very nasty for Hispaniola.

[Lauren]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

oiL is now tropical depression 5. It is expected to strengthen in the coming days as it tracks west/northwest towards Tahiti.  

Tahiti? Think it might be a bit lost 

[Robbie Garrett]

A fair bit of activity now, huge system moved south of Cape Verde.  80% in next 5 days.

[Robbie Garrett]

 

Looking like a busy few weeks coming up!

[summer blizzard]

12 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

 

Looking like a busy few weeks coming up!

That is indeed a well endowed wave. Not what one expects.

[Had Worse]

The amber track of the next projected system ( if it gets its act together) is concerning as it seems to be far south just like Dorian. 

Could we have a similar situation where Irma and another hurricane covered the same ground in one season.

[karyo]

39 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

The amber track of the next projected system ( if it gets its act together) is concerning as it seems to be far south just like Dorian. 

Could we have a similar situation where Irma and another hurricane covered the same ground in one season.

Both the GFS and ECM slowly develop this system as it approaches the Leeward islands. Then the GFS takes it north and it looks like a fish. At 240 hours on the ECM is hard to see where it would go. 

[karyo]

The NHC has reduced the chances for the tropical wave developing to 40%. However, both the 0z and 6z GFS make it a hurricane after it passes the Leeward islands and continues northwestwards. 

The ECM has a similar track up to 240 hours but the low looks less developed.

[bluearmy]

not sure what name it would have but seems the chances of something approaches the Caribbean and headed nw day 8/9 onwards are increasing 

[feb1991blizzard]

Any chance it could become a significant hurricane and track far North as another one to add to the tally?

[FetchCB]

Potential Tropical Cyclones to be initiated later today for a disturbance over the Bahamas.

Having suffered Dorian the last thing you want to read is 

"This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian".

EC has it as a borderline Cat4 (by central pressure) this time next week of the coast of South Carolina. Its path being very similar to Dorian's

 

[Lauren]

Looking busy at the moment. We currently have Humberto and 4 areas of interest.

[summer blizzard]

97L now at 80%, expected to be a long tracking Fish but may be a threat to Bermuda. These storms tend to do well for strength.

[karyo]

Every tropical storm/ hurricane is roughly following the same track. Initially west/northwest and then north to northeast. This is proving a monotonous season and nothing major seems to enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico. The ECM is showing the same pattern continuing till the end if the month.

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, karyo said:

Every tropical storm/ hurricane is roughly following the same track. Initially west/northwest and then north to northeast. This is proving a monotonous season and nothing major seems to enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico. The ECM is showing the same pattern continuing till the end if the month.

Pretty normal historically. Bermuda High is stronger early season, Azores stronger late season. Stronger Azores vs Bermuda ridging provides more recurves.

October-November tends to see more Gulf activity.

[karyo]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Pretty normal historically. Bermuda High is stronger early season, Azores stronger late season. Stronger Azores vs Bermuda ridging provides more recurves.

October-November tends to see more Gulf activity.

Generally true but you'd expect some exceptions. For example by this time last year we had hurricane Florence which started in the Atlantic but managed to track westwards and reached the US east coast.

Also,  in 2005 hurricane Katrina started in the Atlantic but made it to the Gulf in late August.

[summer blizzard]

99L is at 60% just South East Of Jerry. Proximity means it will follow north.

A wave dropping off Africa is at 90%.