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Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Seasonal ACE now above average thanks to the systems over the past six weeks. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Hi there,

I'm looking for members of the community who might be interested in talking to me about a TV series we are developing - a documentary series for a major broadcaster. We are looking for storm and extreme weather enthusiasts from the UK who either have chased weather or have a thirst to chase weather - around the world. I have tried to get hold of a moderator to ask for permission/advice to post a message - but can't seem to send messages as a new member. If anyone has any advice; if you or someone you know might be interested - please get in touch!

 

Warm wishes

'Tilly Tempest'

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Tropical storm Oscar?
 
A low-pressure system in the Central Atlantic has a 90 percent chance of developing into a named storm in the next 48 hours.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

Shower activity associated with a low pressure system centered about 1,000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has become more concentrated during the past several hours. 

The low is expected to move generally northward over the next couple of days into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development.

A tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form by early this weekend.  If it develops, it'll be named Oscar and could bring rough surf next week.

Spaghetti models:  Projected paths of active storms

After that time, the system is forecast to turn west well to the north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.

At this time, the disturbance is not considered a threat to Florida. Conditions can change so residents should continue to monitor the system.

More: NOAA: Super Typhoon Yutu strongest storm to ever hit US soil, with winds at 178 mph

More: What's the difference between subtropical and tropical storms?

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: 90 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days: 90 percent.

 

Published 8:43 PM EDT Oct 25, 2018
5eef0829-0d00-4921-a132-d6f0928a1846-tropics_1025_8pm.thumb.png.63716bac20976b5cf6cddace4fcc448a.png

https://eu.tcpalm.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2018/10/25/tropical-storm-forming-atlantic-forecast-path/1759690002/

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
23 hours ago, karyo said:

A tropical wave close to the Leeward islands has a 90% chance to become a tropical depression in the next few days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

If it develops into a tropical storm it will be named Patty.

Has 30% for me. 

Can#t see much of a chance for it, you can see the sub-tropical jet racing north east. 

two_atl_2d0.png

Asuming no more formations then our ACE total has finished above average. Behind 2010, 2017 and 2016 this decade but on par with 2011 and 2012. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Has 30% for me. 

Can#t see much of a chance for it, you can see the sub-tropical jet racing north east. 

two_atl_2d0.png

Asuming no more formations then our ACE total has finished above average. Behind 2010, 2017 and 2016 this decade but on par with 2011 and 2012. 

23 hours ago it was given a 90% chance but today they have downgraded significantly the chances.

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Being ripped apart quickly by the looks of it.

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  • 2 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/02/07/hurricanes-are-strengthening-faster-atlantic-climate-change-is-big-reason-why-scientists-say/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ade68e9cfd66&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1

Very interesting Esp. the potential for 'fooling folk' into staying put only for the storm to spin up into a monster over a 24 hr period removing any chance of evacuating?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I think that's always been a risk Gray-Wolf. I've seen plenty of small storms spin up in the gulf and if they had only had 12-24hrs they would have been majors, instead they come ashore as 1/2s...still a problem but not the most severe.

In theory it seems sound, warmer waters should mean more potential energy. But a lot depends on how other factors play out,

for example does shear also increase as a consequence?

Does more dry air come From Africa in particular, or does increased moisture from the ITCZ actually start to reduce the size of the drought zone?

Does a warmer surface also lead to a warmer stratosphere over the tropics, or does it not impact the stratosphere and indeed does cause an increase in lapse rates...but does that also cause more in the ay of upper lows to form due to that contrast.

Those are just a few questions that need to be thought about..

BUT in theory, warmer waters leads to a greater potential risk when thing do come right. WPAC shows that nicely.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm sure someone posted a link to a paper looking at moisture flooding into the lower strat across the USA as storms punch through the tropopause and into the strat?

I seem to recall the Boscastle storm was also a very tall storm ( took piccies of the cloud tops, unknowingly, from west yorks!).

As I understand things the atmosphere is 'fatter' around the equator and quite shallow at the poles? How would this 'mixing out' of the lower strat impact our weathers ( even if just restricted to the U.S.)?

Is it as simple as allowing bigger storms to form and so lead to bigger P.D.'s from cloud top to surface or will the extension of the equators atmospheric height alter the actual structure of the atmosphere ( heading for a PETM type of 'equitable climate' ) for the planet?

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Including these two, 88 names have been retired from the Atlantic basin list since 1953, when storms began to be named. The 2005 hurricane season has the most retired names – five – for one season. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/hurricane-committee-retires-names-florence-and-michael

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

First disturbance of the year has appeared. Nothing predicted to come of it but suggests things are waking up.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Hurricane Michael has been declared a 160mph category 5 at landfall. 

Not a shock really given the observed damage in and around Mexico Beach. Basically flattened.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

And we have our first named storm of the season. Welcome, Andrea!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
1 hour ago, Lauren said:

And we have our first named storm of the season. Welcome, Andrea!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

#ANdrea near to Bermuda but forecast to weaken as it passes to the south.  Subtropical https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9102-tropical-cyclones---plain-sub-post-or-extra-a-guide-to-low-pressure-naming-with-ernesto 

2105andrea.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Hurricane Central released its seasonal hurricane outlook. It goes for a slightly more active than average season. 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/2019-hurricane-outlook-released

Earlier forecasts i have seen were talking for a lower than average season and one of the reasons was the el nino but i guess this is now likely to be less of a factor.

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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
21 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Pretty silent at the moment thus far.

Last June was also very quiet and then things became very lively for the end of summer and early autumn. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
10 hours ago, karyo said:

Last June was also very quiet and then things became very lively for the end of summer and early autumn. 

Yes the Atlantic is often dead at this time of year. It often picks up during August.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Tropical Storm Alvin has formed in the eastern Pacific.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Potentially interesting development coming out of mainland USA....

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The ECM and the Icon develop the Golf of Mexico while the gfs and ukmo are not interested. 

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Definitely interesting there is such conflict only a relatively short time before the event. I kept a tab last year for accuracy and Euro was significantly more accurate than GFS. I think it's my preferred model know. Think it's quite good for early spotting too with the representation of circulation.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

As we are now transitioning to enso neutral conditions (goodbye el nino), it will be interesting to see if this hurricane season starts to pick up speed.

The SSTs in key parts of the tropical Atlantic are below average though.

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Theres a depression off the coast of Florida and a potential system evolving in the gulf. Action seems to have accelarated. 

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