Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

I have a question. Forgive me if it's a bit of a stupid one.

So I'm aware that hurricanes can change track fairly easily and increase and decrease with strength quickly too.

But how far in advance can you say that a particular area will be affected by one in some way or another?

I ask because Mr. Lauren and I are heading to Cuba in October at the tail end of hurricane season so would be interested to know considering the hammering it took last year.

Edited by Lauren
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
2 hours ago, Lauren said:

I have a question. Forgive me if it's a bit of a stupid one.

So I'm aware that hurricanes can change track fairly easily and increase and decrease with strength quickly too.

But how far in advance can you say that a particular area will be affected by one in some way or another?

I ask because Mr. Lauren and I are heading to Cuba in October at the tail end of hurricane season so would be interested to know considering the hammering it took last year.

Barely a week, the ensembles even are notably unreliable in the tropics.

From a climo point of view October does favour the Carribean/Gulf but storms are more likely to be headed north (so less of an impact for Cuba than say a Gustav 07 track) and also less likely to be cat 4/5 although Wilma shows that's still possible. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/NTA_ersst.data

This is an interesting index, the North Tropical Atlantic index which essentially tells us how warm the Tropics are. Now looking at this i get the impression that there may be some correlation to hurricane seasons and that both early season values and tendancy are a factor (03 for example came into the season poorly but had a fairly large rise), last year for example came good at the right time. 

This years value looks similar to similar to 2014, 2015, 2012 and 2009 with Q1 seeing fairly cool values (indeed negative in March) and a negative trend. This should not be a shock given that like the years above the spring saw signs of a developing Nino albeit 2014 and 2012 were essentially flops in that regard. 

Will be interesting to watch albeit the last SST's do look pretty negative. 

cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png&key=a46d3f8d0e

I would of course remind you that a less active season does not impact quality. 2014 was the best season for quality in years at that point and 2015 had the magnificent beast that was Joaquin. 

2014 aside i would not be holding out for a hot summer if that data were correct. 

Edited by summer blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Despite the cooler waters, a low pressure system which is currently on the Yucatan peninsula may gradually develop over the next few days as it moves slowly northwards. The forecast track takes it anywhere from west Florida coast to Louisiana. 

I guess the further west the track is the more chance it has to develop due to the warmer SSTs.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Up to 90% now
 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Thunderstorm activity has increased and became better organised according to the latest advisory. 

Let's see if we get Alberto this weekend as the system tracks north over the open water.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2018/05/tropical_depression_gulf.html

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Glorious.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

It's starting to look like the SST anomaly in the hurricane Main Development Region might have an influence on the upcoming Atlantic season. Ryan Maue tweeting:

"Need to investigate upwelling event that has led to dramatic cool water at surface off coast of West Africa ... part of entire Eastern Atlantic over 1°C below last 30-year climatology. Only 20°C actual SST at 10°N latitude is not very tropical."

He followed this with some chart comparisons between the current situation and that of the active 2005 season:

725496531_Ryantweet1ActualSST20052018.thumb.jpg.3b35422e9d56a95ba8f5d2b1a31f640e.jpg328582116_Ryantweet2AnomalySST20052018.thumb.jpg.229814c93ac2cd17fd87290fcbebaf04.jpg

Links to tweets:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001555105387302912
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001557856167059457
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001557873426657280

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

I hope that's true. We're heading to Cuba in October.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

If anyone is interested in entering a seasonal contest, I have one running on this website in the U.S.A. ...

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/...ecast-contest/

(you would need to join the forum to post ... and the deadline is given as late Monday June 4th)

If you just want to make a forecast here I will let you know where it would have finished in the contest at the end of December.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

There's a lot of chatter about adding in a cat6 to the measures for hurricane strength.

The new data on the increases in strongest storms since 1980 appears to be behind this ?

We see a point with the strongest storms that an increase in winds of 10mph brings a 20% increase in damage suffered. So to give a Cat 6 warning would be an 'abandon all hope' call for the worst of the storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
5 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

There's a lot of chatter about adding in a cat6 to the measures for hurricane strength.

The new data on the increases in strongest storms since 1980 appears to be behind this ?

We see a point with the strongest storms that an increase in winds of 10mph brings a 20% increase in damage suffered. So to give a Cat 6 warning would be an 'abandon all hope' call for the worst of the storms.

The reason why we don't have category 6 hurricanes is that all damage from a category 5 has the potential to be catastrophic. Meanwhile a category 6 (say 190mph sustained winds) wouldn't be distinctive in terms of its potential damage from a lower category 5 (165mph). The only reason I think we would need to upgrade is if building technology was capable of developing structures capable of withstanding such forces.

Meanwhile despite the formation of Alberto (which wasn't officially a tropical storm I don't think?) I still think this coming Atlantic hurricane season will be a very quiet one. No La Nina and well below average SSTs in the tropical Atlantic will supress thunderstorm development when unstable airmasses leave Africa,.

anomnight.5.31.2018.gif

As it stands I'd forecast an ACE value in between 50 and 90 which would put 2018 below average.

Though anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic may quickly change I'll put up another prediction in mid-July

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Hi QS1989!

My understanding for not needing to alter the cat's is the same as yours with only 'storm fatigue' making sense of any such change? . Maybe to stop the folk ignoring the danger of the cat 5's due to their  previous " not as bad as forecast" experiences?

If they know they face a total wipeout, no if's, no but's, from the approaching storm then it will reduce numbers of folk refusing to evacuate.

Sadly no help for places like the Caribbean Islands where folk cannot easily evacuate and rely on shelters that may fail ( as we saw in the Pacific with Haiyan?).

If we are seeing more top end storms, and 'more rapid development than forecast' storms, then maybe the lagards will get the message from watching other folks experience with these monsters without any need for additions to the Cat's?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I will give an actual prediction at some point however it's worth saying that we still have a -QBO, still have periodic trade surges in the Pacific and still have warmer than average SST's north of the Tropics.

We may well see a season that actually has good numbers but lacks quality as we get lots of hybrids or systems forming further north than normal. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Tropical Storm Bud is expected to intensify into a Hurricane in the next 24 hours.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?cone#contents

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

2018%20Hurricane%20numbers%20-%20FINAL%2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
8 hours ago, Lauren said:

Tropical Storm Bud is expected to intensify into a Hurricane in the next 24 hours.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?cone#contents

Aaaannnnd Hurricane. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Out of interest is there anywhere to compare what a seasons prediction was vs what it actually was? You can see on Wikipedia for each season individually but is there somewhere this is all collated?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Pacific US coast seems to have a conveyor belt pumping them out recently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Waiting for the June data before forecasting official numbers but based on April-May i get the following years..

2012
2010
2004
2002
2001
1994
1990
1982

Which in turn lend themselves to..

13 to 19 4 to 9 2 to 4

 

Just some early thoughts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...