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Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread


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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Ecm is keen on sending this towards Cuba. 

With it being a very likely major hurricane it will without doubt be another hurricane hitting the major news networks. 

IMG_1085.PNG

Mainly because the track is likely to bring Irma very close to the US.

For example, Harvey has made the news headlines for days now but very little is heard about the widespread floods in India, Bangladesh and Nepal that killed over 1200 so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

GFS 06z which is still trickling out creates a potential problem, with a new small GOM system, its not a million miles away from the areas affected by Harvey and will need watching.

gom.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I realised that i never actually made a prediction for this season so looking at the data i would have gone for 12/7/2 and given that we will leave August with 9/4/2 i would have been wrong. 

 

 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

It looks highly certain that Jose will develope now in the moisture and environment left behind by Irma. 

It should become a very small hurricane according to the models with incredibly weak steering. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
1 hour ago, knocker said:

 

It's a strange change if Ryan's right. Ec has been in the sub 910s quite a lot so anything from 900 above is possible. 878 is a bit unrealistic it looks like physics over common sense. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Interestingly as we approach the half way point of the main August-Oct season our ACE is already at average for a full season (or will be in a few days). If the second half can maintain this level of activity (since August 1st we have seen 6 hurricanes, 3 major) then the seasonal ACE may well be around that of 2010 and 2003, seasons declared as hyperactive. 

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London

Hi all, 

Not sure where to post this, mods feel free to move as you see fit.

My son has always been mad keen on his meteorology, especially the severe stuff as you might expect. He's noticed something. It would appear that if the Pacific has a quiet hurricane season, then the Atlantic will have a busy one and vice-versa. He's been back through the last 30 years and with just a couple of exceptions this theory holds true, see the graph attached:

20170910_164452_resized.thumb.jpg.82e5f027441512c1e03d9f9c1666b1ab.jpg

Is he on to something here? Has the correlation already been spotted and studied? It seems to be glaringly obvious I must say.

And what would we conclude? Is there a finite amount of energy available during any given hurricane season? And what implications does this have with regards to the "drivers" (eg. Solar energy, SST's, moisture content)?

He's done a good job researching this and I'm inclined to suggest he looks into it further.

Any thoughts?

Steve M

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Some of the experimental forecasts show the easternmost storm gobble up the westerly one ( fujiwhara effect ) before heading north to interact with the remnants of Jose as he heads our way......

Could that strengthen the Azores high over us giving us a shot at a least an indian summer???

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Posted
  • Location: cambridge - cambridgeshire
  • Location: cambridge - cambridgeshire
5 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Some of the experimental forecasts show the easternmost storm gobble up the westerly one ( fujiwhara effect ) before heading north to interact with the remnants of Jose as he heads our way......

Could that strengthen the Azores high over us giving us a shot at a least an indian summer???

Ensembles don't support an indian summer...but it can all change 

Edited by Martin R
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

97L has been declared TD14 and will probably be upgraded to TS Lee later today. It is forecast to get caught by a trough later this week.

96L is the wave in front and also has an 80% chance of development. This wave looks as though it may be able to sit under a high and is the one the models hit the US/Lesser Antilles with.

.. 

I recall some people asserting that we may struggle to develop proper deep tropic canes in the main development region again for a variety of reasons.. it seems this season has answered that in spectacular fashion. 

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Just like bus's, nothing severe happens for several years and then they all come at once.

Has it happened before that a place has been hit more than once in the same season?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

97L has been declared TD14 and will probably be upgraded to TS Lee later today. It is forecast to get caught by a trough later this week.

96L is the wave in front and also has an 80% chance of development. This wave looks as though it may be able to sit under a high and is the one the models hit the US/Lesser Antilles with.

.. 

I recall some people asserting that we may struggle to develop proper deep tropic canes in the main development region again for a variety of reasons.. it seems this season has answered that in spectacular fashion. 

I take they read the studies on the imbalance we were seeing between tropical Atlantic and Pacific basins? All those record trade wind pulses shoving up that massive warm water bulge that helped feed the proto Nino's prior to the last super? All that record Shear across the upper atmosphere over the Caribbean?

Well PDO/IPO flipped and the Basins seem to be at some kind of Parity allowing us to again see full height storms again trawling the Atlantic?

What we did see , over the pause in activity over the Atlantic basin, were very fast forming Typhoons that made 'super' status over in the Pacific Basin. Is this what we ought to now expect to happen more often in the Atlantic Basin?

Maybe Lee will give us another look at just how fast we can go from TD to 'cane?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

96l is a real problem. It might be lee or Maria depending on td14 personally I would go with lee as I think it will develop quickly. 

Unfortunately 96l could go Irma. The upper high ssts shear moisture and potential path all scream major hurricane hitting the islands and mainland us again. 

I am not going to post models etc yet as it's a little too premature until it at least develops but they are as consistent in its development as they were  with Irma. 

I desperately hope it won't affect many of the same people but think it might. :(

still looking at floater to see evidence of closed west-east circulation it close very close. 

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