atlantic hurricane season Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

[iand61]

8 hours ago, karyo said:

The 0z ECM also loves Harvey and places him in the gulf of Mexico in 10 days time.

Smart, guess who's off to Cancun on 27th.

never mind at least it will be warm wind and rain, not that October feeling crap we've had here today

[karyo]

3 hours ago, iand61 said:

Smart, guess who's off to Cancun on 27th.

never mind at least it will be warm wind and rain, not that October feeling crap we've had here today

It may turn out fine.

I thought today was a beautiful day! Even had a bit of thunder.

[iand61]

Just now, karyo said:

It may turn out fine.

I thought today was a beautiful day! Even had a bit of thunder.

Last time we were in Mexico we had a hurricane, nothing to severe but an interesting thing to witness.

as for today, decent afternoon and evening here but some torrential showers in the morning.

didn't hear any thunder though

[karyo]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

Last time we were in Mexico we had a hurricane, nothing to severe but an interesting thing to witness.

as for today, decent afternoon and evening here but some torrential showers in the morning.

didn't hear any thunder though

It was the opposite here.

Why did you choose Cancun? I want to visit Popocatepetl and Colima volcano in the future.

[iand61]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

It was the opposite here.

Why did you choose Cancun? I want to visit Popocatepetl and Colima volcano in the future.

Sunshine, all inclusive hotel and two weeks of chillin out.

we've had a couple of busy holidays touring around in the states and fancied a change again.

But i'd gladly climb the odd volcano if I had my way though.

[karyo]

12 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Sunshine, all inclusive hotel and two weeks of chillin out.

we've had a couple of busy holidays touring around in the states and fancied a change again.

But i'd gladly climb the odd volcano if I had my way though.

Fair enough 

[summer blizzard]

Tropical Storm Harvey is still being sheared and getting a bit of dry air so remains at 40mph and indeed the GFS still has it open up into a wave (Euro has it not doing much until just before landfall). Indeed there is evidence from recon that the vortex is not fully stacked (i.e. it is tilted due to shear). 

The good news is.. the GFS is (probably) wrong. All models pretty much show shear dropping and humidity increasing from sometime tonight/tomorrow morning and so assuming it survives today and can stack relatively quickly (it should also slow down) then we could by Sunday afternoon see Harvey strengthen in what looks like a good environment. Indeed the NHC still have Harvey hitting land as a strong TS. 

92L has a similar story but sadly lacks the benefit of being an existing coherent storm. It is being sheared today and tomorrow but afterward encounters a much more positive environment as it heads towards Florida/the south east coast. 

The best thing it has going for it is that it will slow to a crawl and has more time over water (we have also seen that the Bahamas can be pretty fertile). This does mean it may be slow enough to get kicked out to see though. 

Edited August 19, 2017 by summer blizzard

[Badgers01]

On 18/08/2017 at 18:20, iand61 said:

Smart, guess who's off to Cancun on 27th.

never mind at least it will be warm wind and rain, not that October feeling crap we've had here today

Last time I was In Cancun we had hurricane Wilma - truly horrendous !! I hope it stays fine for you ..

[summer blizzard]

Harvey has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. It looks better now than it did 12 hours ago but recon earlier did not find a closed circulation extending down to the surface so the global models may have won. 

It looks to me like there is a center somewhere under the south western bit of the circulation but whether that extends right the way down i can't tell. 

Models say that shear should be headed downward now so hopefully it survives.

[summer blizzard]

Harvey was declared an open wave overnight. Convection was spread in a NE/SW direction and although recon found a well defined wind shift and lower pressure around 14N, it appeared that Harvey had no closed circulation. Kudos to the GFS especially. 

Ironically (though we shall have to see if it remains) Harvey this morning actually looks much better with strong convection over/around a center so it may be that Harvey does pop a new center assuming that the system can retain convection during the day and the NHC note that Harvey could regenerate although speed and dry air may prevent it. 

[summer blizzard]

Harvey now moving over the Yucatan. Both the models and NHC (90% chance) suggest that Harvey will be reborn. 

Both the GFS and Euro ensembles are in like 80% agreement that Harvey will hit Texas in ~90 hours with some ensembles having Harvey recurve earlier (more time over water, hits further down the Gulf Coast) but it's very likely that Texas is the spot.

Both GFS and Euro suggest that Harvey will strengthen rapidly on Thursday and Friday (they appear to close a low level center tomorrow) and they have him in the 950-975mb range at landfall. Needless to say that it's being a while since the Gulf Coast has seen a strengthening cat 2/3 coming at them (not so much an issue for the US as a developed country). The main concern though with a strengthening, slow moving storm are the rainfall totals being forecast for Texas which looks like it will be absolutely drenched. 

..

The obvious note of caution here is that Harvey currently has no closed circulation and that for this to happen he has to close one off tomorrow and start slowly strengthening so that he is primed for Thursday. At any rate, the moisture surge into the Gulf Coast whether it forms or not will warrant severe flood warnings. 

[karyo]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Harvey now moving over the Yucatan. Both the models and NHC (90% chance) suggest that Harvey will be reborn. 

Both the GFS and Euro ensembles are in like 80% agreement that Harvey will hit Texas in ~90 hours with some ensembles having Harvey recurve earlier (more time over water, hits further down the Gulf Coast) but it's very likely that Texas is the spot.

Both GFS and Euro suggest that Harvey will strengthen rapidly on Thursday and Friday (they appear to close a low level center tomorrow) and they have him in the 950-975mb range at landfall. Needless to say that it's being a while since the Gulf Coast has seen a strengthening cat 2/3 coming at them (not so much an issue for the US as a developed country). The main concern though with a strengthening, slow moving storm are the rainfall totals being forecast for Texas which looks like it will be absolutely drenched. 

..

The obvious note of caution here is that Harvey currently has no closed circulation and that for this to happen he has to close one off tomorrow and start slowly strengthening so that he is primed for Thursday. At any rate, the moisture surge into the Gulf Coast whether it forms or not will warrant severe flood warnings. 

At least it is good to see the models taking Harvey to the US and not poor old Mexico.

The 6z shifts the storm slightly further east, still hitting Texas and then very slowly moving east.

[summer blizzard]

NHC now give Harvey 100% chance of development. It should be declared again tomorrow (it's just leaving the Yucatan now).

Models firming up on a few things..

1) Harvey will landfall on Friday night (this keeps getting a tad later)

2) The trough will miss Harvey causing a stall somewhere near the coast (possibly enough to go back out to sea along the Gulf Coast)

3) As a result of 2, central and western Texas are going to see catastrophic rainfall totals (we are talking in excess of a foot). 

[karyo]

The UKMO is the model that develops Harvey the most and has him making landfall further east that the other two models (still in Texas but very close to Louisiana).

The GFS and ECM place the landfall further west but they also don't develop the system anywhere near as much at the point of landfall. However, while the GFS has Harvey slowly dissipating over land, the ECM takes him back into the water where he develops and then makes another landfall this time somewhere in Louisiana. 

[summer blizzard]

With Harvey giving us a nice bump our ace for the season to date is running at 94% making up for some of the fodder storms early on. 

Our next area of interest is 93L in the main development region. NHC have given it an 80% chance of development over the next 5 days. SHIP's suggests it will move at a reasonable speed in a very low shear environment however it will be moving over relatively cool waters in a region of dry air. Since it's a long track system though one imagines the environment will improve once is gets closer to the USA (though it is highly likely to be a FISH).  

[mwm991]

Theres an area of low pressure just west of the Cape Verde Islands I'm keeping an eye on just now. It has a 90% chance of formation within the next few days. It looks like travelling northwest in the direction of Florida, albeit probably still a couple of thousand miles from landfall, but I'd say thats our next area of interest.

[summer blizzard]

Still has some cooler and drier seas/air to deal with but those shear readings are something to behold..

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    31    34    37    44    51    56    61    65    71    76    83
V (KT) LAND       25    28    31    34    37    44    51    56    61    65    71    76    83
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    28    30    31    35    39    42    47    53    60    70    82
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         2     2     2     4     4     8     6     4     4     2     2     4     5

 

Two track splits in the ensembles.. One looks like recurring near Bermuda, the other looks like staying south enough to be west of Florida. 

Both GFS and Euro seem bullish. Euro is 931mb near the Bahamas moving WNW. 

 

[knocker]

The ecm being quite bold with 93L

[knocker]

 

[karyo]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

 

Interesting that she is expected to take a more southerly track. Maybe it won't be a fish after all.

In fact the ECM places her very close to Florida in 10 days time!

Edited August 30, 2017 by karyo

[Sainsbo]

The ECM has been showing a trend over the last few runs, with the ridge to the NE strengthening and stopping it from going back OTS. Worth keeping an eye on for sure, been showing a Major hurricane for about 5 runs now

[Gray-Wolf]

Not only is Irma progged to be a major she looks likely to be quite a monster???

Then we have the problem of Jose? Some uncomfortable runs of some models for those just seeing the back of Harvey? No huge rain cargo but the potential for hurricane force winds strfing the areas Harvey so hammered.

Not quite 05' but conditions edging up to being a favourable as back then , a thing not seen in over a decade!!!

[knocker]

 

[Cleeve Hill]

The Antigua view on Irma is that this will be a hurricane by Friday. It already looks an impressive storm over a wide area. 

IT looks like it will track West  with a touch of north about it and then steer very much west, as the Azores high drifts south west keeping the storm from re curving. 

It is forecast to be 170 mile north east of Antigua Wednesday but that's such a long way off to be taken too literally. 

It's going to be a n interesting watch and I sense this will be a major hurricane with the U.S very much in line. 

Hopefully it will stay clear of our region and where we write property and marine insurance. 

[knocker]