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Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

99L is stacked, recon has found a closed low. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Just for season posterity but not worthwhile making individual threads.

bea444e90aa7e00e8be4082fcc60001d.png

Ian and Julia have formed but will not get beyond tropical storm status. Julia, due to be downgraded to a depression later, will be a rainmaker in SE coastal regions and Ian moves north east in the Atlantic. NHC tracks below.

Julia 114122W5_NL_sm.gif   Ian  083612W5_NL_sm.gif

All images courtesy of NHC. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The wave that came off Africa became Lisa so we'll be 12/5/1 assuming Karl becomes a hurricane. 

More interestingly though is the wave behind that system which has now come off Africa and been given a 20% chance of development by the NHC. The Euro does nothing with it tonight nor it's ensembles (it did develop this morning) however the GFS is going absolutely gagga for it and has developed it every run for the past few days.

Around day 5 the wave approaches the Leewards and gets declared..

gfs_midRH_watl_21.png

By day 10 it's a Caribbean cruiser headed for the Yucatan or western Cuba ..

gfs_midRH_watl_41.png

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands
10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

More interestingly though is the wave behind that system which has now come off Africa and been given a 20% chance of development by the NHC. The Euro does nothing with it tonight nor it's ensembles (it did develop this morning) however the GFS is going absolutely gagga for it and has developed it every run for the past few days.

Around day 5 the wave approaches the Leewards and gets declared..

 

Things can change pretty quickly; the ECMWF does develop the wave again in the 00Z run. Though it does so quite a bit later compared to the GFS. It definitely appears that we will be watching a potentially interesting storm in the Caribbean in the 5-10 day range. Things can change quickly, still, but the model support appears quite large.

Day5.jpg

Day10.jpg

ECMWF run 24-09 00Z 5 days out (top) and 10 days out (below).

The 00Z ECMWF runs shows the system just west of the Lesser Antilles as a weak low pressure area, and as a potent hurricane just east of Nicaragua 5 days later. Of course it is just one model calculation. Therefore, one should not believe this to be the real outcome. It only shows that the potential is there for a significant system in the Caribbean in about 5-10 days' time.

Source: Tropicaltidbits

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

97L now at 90%. Sadly for us however it looks as though after brushing South America it will be caught by a trough and come north (impact in Cuba or Haiti) before it goes up the east coast. Likely to become a strong hurricane then but probably won't get anything other than a weak landfall.

You can see the trough here with it's trailing front and below the Euro ensembles. 

gfs_midRH_watl_17.png

aal97_2016092606_eps_track_by_model_late

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Interestingly the 18z almost misses the trough (you can see it quite well on the two frames) and this is only days 4 and 5. 

gfs_midRH_watl_17.png

gfs_midRH_watl_21.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Some signs of impressive spiral banding, and a general accumulation of mass across the central region - looks like  the low level convergence and upper level divergence are starting to work together more efficiently. This disturbance has a huge moisture envelope and by this time may well  (depending on official NHC classification or not) be among the largest tropical depressions in recorded history.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Meanwhile, the models are generally trending toward a further N initialisation point (around 12N rather than 10), which actually has the effect of getting it caught up in a westerly steering flow more effectively, meaning it ends up as far west as Jamaica before a turn to the north kicks in.

GFS is a bit behind on the initilalisation and hence what it does with the system. The 06z will be interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico to Newfoundland seems to be in play as possible landfall locations from what will likely be a powerful hurricane.

240_mslp500_arc.png?cb=506

Here from the ECMWF we can see a strong hurricane (may or may not be major) crossing Cuba en-route to Florida or thereabouts.

 18_288_mslp500arc.png?cb=506 18_300_mslp500arc.png?cb=506

Yet here from the GFS of yesterday evening, we see the storm travelling adjacent to the Eastern Seaboard before performing a left-hook into the coast - much like Hurricane Sandy of 2012.

The overnight run from that model just steams it along that coastline. It and ECM are being very steadfast in their own solutions for the storm.

My hunch is that the storm will travel more west in the Caribbean and be somewhere in the vicinity of Florida in 8-12 days time, and in any case - Geoff (and other interests), I advise watching this space and then the 'Matthew' thread once this system has been named, and of course keeping track of the official National Hurricane Centre warnings via their website at the link below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Stay safe!

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
4 minutes ago, geoffw said:

thanks mate , has orlando ever been evacuated because of a hurricane ?

It seems 'partial' evacuations - of the more vulnerable - are common in the lead-up, followed by county-specific mandatory evacuation commands, for example in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Katrina_in_Florida#Preparations

"Officials issued a mandatory evacuation for portions of Walton, Gulf, Franklin, and Wakulla counties."

 - so it's best to be prepared for that eventuality, while considering that the probability of impact at this time is very low, but with the potential to increase rapidly (or drop to zero) nearer the time depending on what the system does over the next 6-7 days.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

97L_tracks_latest.png

The latest tropical model runs have a very wide spread starting 5-6 days from now. Funnily enough, they all go east or west of Florida rather than toward it.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
11 hours ago, Singularity said:

97L_tracks_latest.png

The latest tropical model runs have a very wide spread starting 5-6 days from now. Funnily enough, they all go east or west of Florida rather than toward it.

Euro slams a category 4 into southern Florida.

GFS ensembles do a Sandy/Irene. 

Euro ensemble mean is west of the operational, headed for the gulf. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Matthew has been officially named as of mid-afternoon our time.

Already the storm is large; tropical storm force winds extend out to 205 miles from the centre - though this is only on the northern sides for now, with the southern side a fair bit less expansive.

Peak sustained winds are stated to be 60 mph, occurring in a band of heavy thunderstorms N of the centre.

Few - if any - storms have been as strong as Matthew upon designation as a tropical cyclone.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Mathew expected to hit Jamaca/Cuba/Haiti/Bahamas as category 4 tomorrow through Tuesday. Strength and track thereafter uncertain.

Latest GFS may have a few Canadians worried though.

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

 

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The met office is watching another possible tropical storm circled on the picture

b9be8376-09d1-4827-bd62-1913fa44853f.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The met office is watching another possible tropical storm circled on the picture

b9be8376-09d1-4827-bd62-1913fa44853f.png

 

Declared Nicole, will basically stall and then be sheared to death by Matthew. 

Still brings us to 14/5/2 for the season.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Nicole has become a category 2 hurricane making us 14/6/2 for the season. Expected to weaken but who knows, it's at 105mph so we can't rule out a major. 

Nicole.jpg.fe33b4f3725d8ce007a275e177589

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