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What’s New in Tropical Cyclone Modeling?

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With each passing year, forecasters have ever-more-accurate numerical guidance on where tropical storms and hurricanes are most likely to track and how strong they’ll get.  Several of the leading models have undergone noteworthy improvements over the past year. Track models have gotten steadily better over the last couple of decades, whereas improvements in forecasting intensity have been much more difficult to come by (see Figures 1 and 2 below), so a great deal of energy has been focused on the latter. Below is a summary of what’s new and cool, based on interviews and email exchanges with the following experts:

--Richard Pasch, Senior Hurricane Specialist, NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC)

--David Richardson, Head of Evaluation, Forecast Department, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

--Julian Heming, Tropical Cyclone Specialist, UK Met Office (UKMET)



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