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European Storm & Convective Discussion


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
8 hours ago, J10 said:

Are these "Medicanes" new or something that has always happen.

Hi Julian. This should help. Severe Weather EU's article about Medicanes.

"Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones are interesting severe weather events, but nothing new and they have been observed in the past. Here is some of what we know about them."  http://www.severe-weather.eu/theory/medicanes-mediterranean-tropical-like-cyclones-what-are-they/

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

This weekend's Medicane is looking to have some severe impacts on Greece and Turkey. Here's some extracts from the update published late Thurs 27th Sept by Severe Weather EU:

  • Rapid cyclogenesis is ongoing just off the Libyan coast this evening, central surface pressure is around 1004 mbar. The cyclone is expected to move due north and intensify over the Ionian sea tomorrow during the day before it turns east towards southern Greece and continues towards the Aegean sea and the western Turkey on Sunday.
     
  • Saturday, 29th Sept 12 UTC – models mostly agree on the potential track of Medicane across the southern Greece, the centre / eye should eventually track between Peloponnese and Crete Island. The Medicane’s eyewall would in this case effect both landmasses pretty hard! Peak wind gusts could reach 120-150 km/h based on high resolution models.
     
  • Sunday, 30th Sept 12 UTC – all models also push Medicane into the Aegean sea and then also into western Turkey. This would bring potentially devastating flash floods there as severe storms with torrential rainfall could produce huge amounts of rainfall across the steep slopes in mountainous terrain of the western Turkey.
     
  • Models are also on track in hinting at a potentially extreme amount of rainfall. Southern Greece will get hit hard, regardless of the track. These are the latest model guidance updates from GFS, ARPEGE and ICON-EU models – 300-500 mm may well be possible in some areas and bring life-threatening flash floods.

Source: Severe Weather EU: http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/update-medicane-forms-over-the-ionian-sea-tonight-expected-to-cross-greece-on-saturday-and-head-to-western-turkey-on-sunday/

IR satellite image Fri Sept 28th with the toe of Italy above (to the north) of the storm and Greece to the right:

625518894_MedicaneIRsatelliteimageFri28Sept.thumb.jpg.1bca7f7656d20a88ddb4bcde6e420dbf.jpg

Animation of maximum wind gusts from GFS Greece Model for Fri 28th - Sun 30th:

tempresult_nbl1.gif

Charts courtesy of http://www.meteociel.fr/

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
On 27/09/2018 at 07:33, Lauren said:

So if the waters are warm enough to make this tropical why would it not be a named Hurricane?

Here's an article from last year's one https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8564-potential-medicane---mediterranean-tropical-like-storm-flooding-gales-and-lightning 

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
3 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Interesting. So at this point what ingredients are we missing for this to not be a legit hurricane?

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Posted
  • Location: M25 Herts/Bucks border And the NW
  • Location: M25 Herts/Bucks border And the NW
1 hour ago, Lauren said:

Interesting. So at this point what ingredients are we missing for this to not be a legit hurricane?

It is not in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific. It has however reached the required min. wind speed of 74mph to gain hurricane status and thus has been upgraded to Medicane (Mediterranean + Hurricane = Medicane). 

Is that what you meant with regard to it not being a 'legit hurricane ' ?

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
2 hours ago, Despicable Weather said:

It is not in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific. It has however reached the required min. wind speed of 74mph to gain hurricane status and thus has been upgraded to Medicane (Mediterranean + Hurricane = Medicane). 

Is that what you meant with regard to it not being a 'legit hurricane ' ?

 

 

 

Well I guess I dont understand why they can't just call it a Hurricane and use the Saffir Simpson scale.

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Posted
  • Location: M25 Herts/Bucks border And the NW
  • Location: M25 Herts/Bucks border And the NW

The Saffir-Simpson scale measures hurricane from a Category 1 up to a Category 5. These ocean formed tropical cyclones require warm SST's of at least 26/27c to reach hurricane status and travel in an East > West direction.

The tropical cyclones that are formed in the Med. with cooler SST's and travel West > East are unlikely (never?) to reach beyond a Category 1, I believe but maybe someone more knowledgeable will correct that.

So to my understanding, these storms are limited in Category strength due to the cooler SST's, so a scale is not really required, plus they travel in a different direction. These reasons make sense in my mind for a hybrid name and where to find them. 

Hope this helps, if only a little ☺

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Speaking to my Greek friends yesterday on Zakynthos, it was a stormy very windy day with all schools closed, all boat travel stopped including ferries to Patras and the airport under watch (but nothing serious reported).

All context of course, but Autumn has clearly arrived early in Zakynthos. Last year when I went the temperature was still up in the mid/high 20s until 23rd October whereas it’s nor expected to get much above 18c for the next week.

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
6 hours ago, Despicable Weather said:

The Saffir-Simpson scale measures hurricane from a Category 1 up to a Category 5. These ocean formed tropical cyclones require warm SST's of at least 26/27c to reach hurricane status and travel in an East > West direction.

The tropical cyclones that are formed in the Med. with cooler SST's and travel West > East are unlikely (never?) to reach beyond a Category 1, I believe but maybe someone more knowledgeable will correct that.

So to my understanding, these storms are limited in Category strength due to the cooler SST's, so a scale is not really required, plus they travel in a different direction. These reasons make sense in my mind for a hybrid name and where to find them. 

Hope this helps, if only a little ☺

But Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes often end up travelling west to east for some of their track. But I get what you're saying, in general they travel East to west. The maximum strength thing makes sense.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Eastbourne East Sussex

Estofex are doing discussions on the medicane. Very much a nhc feel to them. Cone of uncertainty aswell.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Two excellent tweets about the Medicane currently impacting the eastern Med. Below are stills from the tweets, so follow the links to watch in action (sorry - I don't post tweets on Netwx any more as they often don't work properly). The first shows how a Potential Vorticity (VP) streamer on the eastern flank of the High Pressure over Europe causes the Medicane to form. The second is a video clip showing the devastation to small boats in a Sicilian harbour as waves smash over the harbour wall. Images courtesy of Philipe Papin and Severe Weather EU.

62903400_MedicanePVstreamerPhilPapin.thumb.jpg.8abdefcd3c1a49daed0e01f5ec8bc9b5.jpg

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1045827936501125121

1235886911_MedicaneSicilyharbour.thumb.jpg.d04ccc460bff2b02bda6d297b4f4ad73.jpg

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1045796733505155072

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Nice storm in Salerno, Italy.

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/campania/salerno/centro-storico-salerno.html

With sound and booming thunder.

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/campania/napoli/vesuvio.html

Mount Vesuvius getting hit with multiple CGs with sound

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Update: my portable storm shield is in full effect so far - storms all around but nowhere close

9B87B1A1-A1AA-4E75-828F-8D05E70009D0.thumb.png.bddd8129659ad9846255455df11f373e.png

The plus point being it’s warm and sunny with some beautiful big fuffy-topped cumulus straddling the peaks of the mountains around us.

And we have frogs - does that mean thunder ?

 

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

https://livecam-pro.com/en/majorca-son-serra.html

Great site for Majorca. CGs hitting the hills and sea.

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Posted
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl

Some great storms in Majorca at the moment, live webcams here :

https://livecam-pro.com/en/majorca.html

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Watching that monster system flashing away to our NE from our terrace. I think it may even be splitting and a new cell developing and inching toward Alcudia?

Fantastic to watch the flashes on the horizon but there’s mountains between us and the sea, and haven’t heard actual thunder from it for hours now.

On satellite the storm’s top appears to have blown all the way over into Biscay - it’s huge!!!

Fingers crossed there’s still a chance it’ll head closer this way before the night is over...

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Unfortunately the storms which anchored to the east of Mallorca yesterday and overnight caused flash floods and a burst river leading to several fatalities

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45807978

A sobering reminder of the power of some of these large storm systems.

British couple washed away in a taxi along with the driver

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
8 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Unfortunately the storms which anchored to the east of Mallorca yesterday and overnight caused flash floods and a burst river leading to several fatalities

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45807978

A sobering reminder of the power of some of these large storm systems.

British couple washed away in a taxi along with the driver

Whilst looking yesterday at the cam in my post above, I did notice torrents of water spilling onto the beach from the right where the road disappears. I was thinking then, about the conditions being severe.

Looks like power or that cam have gone down since.

Edited by Had Worse
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
21 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Whilst looking yesterday at the cam in my post above, I did notice torrents of water spilling onto the beach from the right where the road disappears. I was thinking then, about the conditions being severe.

Looks like power or that cam have gone down since.

I can imagine - we are to the west and spent the day in Palma. It rained a LOT but looks like it was tame in comparison to what happened the other side of the island.

D95E5179-85C0-48B1-9B03-EBB79CB3BC67.thumb.jpeg.d42760412011ce5a9c52998e1d516f8a.jpeg

Some fascinating clouds about today tho. Perhaps some more severe weather on its way for later.

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
26 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I can imagine - we are to the west and spent the day in Palma. It rained a LOT but looks like it was tame in comparison to what happened the other side of the island.

D95E5179-85C0-48B1-9B03-EBB79CB3BC67.thumb.jpeg.d42760412011ce5a9c52998e1d516f8a.jpeg

Some fascinating clouds about today tho. Perhaps some more severe weather on its way for later.

Storms kicking off near Alcudia

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