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Another system has developed in the East Pacific, this time past 130E.

Not expected to be strong however it curves less which may keep it in warmer waters.

ep201510_5day.gif

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Yes, 10E formed yesterday in the far west of the Eastern Pacific basin, and is set to be yet another tropical cyclone that will move into the Central Pacific basin. The system has become Tropical Storm Hilda, with winds of 50kts.

Hilda is a tiny tropical storm which is responding quickly to the low shear and warm sea temperature environment. The storm has developed a tight inmer core and a small but symmetrical central dense overcast. As shear is set to remain low and waters warm for about another couple days, Hilda has

ample time to become a hurricane. Just how strong is uncertain, systems as small as Hilda are prone to rapid strengthening episodes but are also susceptible to very small changes in the environment. NHC are forecasting a peak of 75kts which is a fair guess.

Beautiful little storm:

post-1820-0-67683100-1438899895_thumb.jp

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Hilda has become a hurricane with winds of 70kts. The hurricane remains tiny in size. Just how strong Hilda will get is still uncertain, as midget systems such as Hilda are even more difficult to predict. NHC are now forecasting a peak of 85kts (cat 2), but Hilda could get stronger than this if shear remains low. Just a slight increase in shear could also halt strengthening of the tiny hurricane. In about 2-3 days, strong shear is expected to affect Hilda as it swings to the north, east of Hawaii. This will cause Hilda to weaken pretty quickly by days 4 and 5.

Latest imagery shows Hilda sporting a well defined eye:

post-1820-0-91497000-1438986522_thumb.jp

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Hilda continues to rapidly intensify, with winds now at 90kts, a cat 2 on the SS scale. It is expected to become a major hurricane soon, before weakening begins in about 36hrs.

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Hilda has become a category 3 major hurricane with winds of 100kts. The eye is small and well defined. Hilda has about another 12hrs to strengthen before shear begins to rise.

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Impressive Hilda is now a cat 4 with winds of 120kts. Further strengthening is possible in the next 12hrs or so.

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Tiny hurricane Hilda has strengthened into a category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHS), the fourth of the 2015 East+Central Pacific hurricane season. The cyclone has quite some characteristics of an annular hurricane, considering the symmetric blob of convection without much banding apparent.

 

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Satellite image of hurricane Hilda as of 21 UTC 08-08. Courtesy: NOAA.

 

Note how small the eye of the cyclone is, it appears as a very small dot. Next to this small eye, the cyclone also has a very small inner core. This inner core is almost too small to grasp for MIMIC imagery from CIMSS!

 

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CIMSS MIMIC imagery of Hilda of 08-08. Courtesy: CIMSS.

 

Sources:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_10E/webManager/mainpage.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pacific_hurricane_season

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10E/10E_floater.html

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Hilda is gradually weakening as the environment deteriorates. Winds are down to 85kts, cat 2. As Hilda continues to weaken in ever increasing shear, it'll veer more westwards towards Hawaii. As SB says however, Hilda should be a very weak system at the point of any impact.

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Hilda is putting up an impressive fight against the shear, but ultimately is weakening. Hilda is still a hurricane, but only just, with winds of 65kts. Hilda retains a decent amount of convection, but the LLC and MLC are decoupling due to the shear. Once this happens, systems weaken pretty rapidly. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Hawaii however, as Hilda is forecast to still be a tropical storm on impact.

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Looks like it will now head south of the big island and eventually be going due west. Its still below 20N so if it keeps headed west or south west it could redevelop so long as it does not die.

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Hilda, until now, has been doing rather well for a storm being blasted by 40kts of shear. Convection has always been close to the LLCC, and rather deep. However, this evening, it has been completely stripped from the LLCC, and has since largely dissipated. Winds are down to 35kts. It appears Hilda may finally be giving in, unless convection makes a return.

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