Model Output Discussion - 1st August 00z---------->

[mushymanrob]

The models and anomalies, have all moved towards a decent settled spell across most of the uk. If anything the data has upgraded and even the bbc weathermen have said itll warm up.

All indications are pointing more and more to a decent settled summery spell of weather.

 

 

oops.... that jinxed it.

i was hoping the noaa anom charts would shift in favour of the recently predicted azores high ridging over the uk... but they havnt

i expect the ecm 00z due out shortly will drop the azores ridge over us. the anomaly charts dont support anything other then transitory ridges over us. whilst overall not bad, especially in the southeast, theres not much sign... actually theres no sign, of anything settled across the uk for more then a couple of days between systems. no sign of high pressure dominance, azores ridging, or a lasting warm/hot spell some model runs were suggesting.

but average for early august is still pretty nice and there will be a lot of decent weather to be enjoyed and its still looking like a better august then we have had for many years now, albeit not long hot and sunny.

 

(thats within the reliable timeframe, theres still some heat in fi.... always in fi...)

Edited August 5, 2015 by mushymanrob

[ANYWEATHER]

Utterly dire performance from the ecm and gfs . I think we can safely say that FI has come closer than ever before!

[Man With Beard]

ECM 00Z is the hottest op of recent times within D6-D10 period, but relies on a highly volatile cut-off trough to our south - anything between GFS (warm in south, average elsewhere) and ECM possible post D6. So still not quite enough to call a heatwave yet.

[ANYWEATHER]

The GFS continues this morning to show more settled warmer weather for the UK as a whole, With Temps possibly touching 35c by the 20th for part of the South. An interesting period of model watching coming up over the next week reg detail.. 

Please excuse me, I know this is the model output thread ,but don't you think this is totally misleading? Youre on about 15 days away from now, from a model which struggles to get five days ahead correct! Im afraid newbies on here will be totally confused. I get shot down with what I call more realistic model output in a much shorter timeframe. Its a bit like saying the long range model output says its going to be minus 35c here at Christmas.

[phil nw.]

ECM 00Z is the hottest op of recent times within D6-D10 period, but relies on a highly volatile cut-off trough to our south - anything between GFS (warm in south, average elsewhere) and ECM possible post D6. So still not quite enough to call a heatwave yet.

Yes the se quadrant still the favoured area for any real heat that edges north off the continent, particularly towards mid month.

Overall though i think expectations of a widespread event are low currently with many areas seeing quite modest temperatures,although i must add,a heck of a lot better than the last half of July.

A few images from NW Extra showing expected readings in 3 day blocks against the August average for the next 9 days.Taken from the ens.mean.

 

A look at the gfs mean for days 5 and 10 shows plenty of continental heat building as we go forward but apart from any brief shallow features that could waft some of it into the se   it does appear to remain locked in across the channel.

 

With a  trough remaining out to the west and north west this will continue to feed Atlantic air across us much of the time.Still a decent enough pattern with the Azores high at least being able to have some influence extending more Summery weather further north from time to time. 

[Polar Maritime]

Please excuse me, I know this is the model output thread ,but don't you think this is totally misleading? Youre on about 15 days away from now, from a model which struggles to get five days ahead correct! Im afraid newbies on here will be totally confused. I get shot down with what I call more realistic model output in a much shorter timeframe. Its a bit like saying the long range model output says its going to be minus 35c here at Christmas.

Thats a rather dramatic responce to a perfectly resonable post..As i said, The models continue to show warm more settled weather. With 35c showing for the 20th. Absolutly nothing misleading there Anyweather.. Its not a forcast but what the Models are showing. Ending my post with 'The next week will be interesting regarding detail'. So who's misleading...?

Certainly not me. So please think before posting such 'misleading' accusations towards me, Or any other members for that matter in future..

Edited August 5, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY AUG 5TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weakening depression will move NNE to the West of the UK with weakening troughs tracking slowly East across the UK today and tonight, clearing to the NE tomorrow

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with rain at times especially over the North and West. Some lengthy dry and at times warmer conditions across Southern and Eastern Britain perhaps extending North for a time later.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving NE across the South of the UK over the coming days. The flow then realigns more west to east across the North of the UK, still moving further South at times in the first week. the flow is then much further North for a time later but never achieves a position quite far enough to the NW to eliminate some of the UK falling under it's more unsettled accompaniment.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to indicate somewhat better conditions than of late with a finger of High pressure from the Azores anticyclone ridged towards Southern England for a lot of the time from the weekend. Unfortunately it is often a couple of hundred miles too South to eliminate the effect of continuing Atlantic fronts from crossing Northern Britain and these also feed down into the South on occasion with a little rain here too at times. Often quite warm conditions in the South will be interrupted by fresher air as any troughs move through the South at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows a ridge too developing close to Southern Britain with things warming up down here and becoming quite humid and sometimes rather cloudy over the weekend and next week. The North remains more changeable for a time before a better spell develops here too midweek next week as a ridge extends influence across many areas. Thundery low pressure then moves up from the South with thundery showers for a time before the weather settles down again under High pressure later in the period with many places then becoming fine, sunny and warm.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days from now look fairly good with a lot of High pressure close by to the South and SW with 25% of members placing High pressure across the UK so a lot of fine weather for many areas likely in two weeks time with any unsettled conditions likely in the far North.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure ridging across the far South at the weekend from the Azores High bringing warm and humid weather to Southern Britain while the North lie under moist and damp WSW winds. By the end of the 6 day period High pressure has migrated to the East of the UK with a period of slack and light winds for most areas and the small possibility of a thundery shower in the extreme South within the generally warm conditions.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS (to 84hrs) The Fax Charts this morning show weakening fronts moving NE across the UK over the coming days ahead of High pressure building close to Southern Britain by the weekend.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM  GEM this morning does show he build of pressure close to Southern Britain at the weekend delivering a spell of fine and warm if often rather cloudy conditions for a while. Further to the North things remain more changeable and breezy and it isn't long into next week before all areas become rather cooler again with occasional rain at times, still more likely across the north and West than elsewhere especially late in the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the build of pressure too from the SW across the far South of Britain at the weekend leading on to weaken it briefly in the early days of next week to rebuild it further North by Wednesday to extend more settled and warmer conditions to many areas, not just the South by then.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning offers up a similar package of better conditions as a ridge moves across the far South at the weekend with fine, humid and warm conditions for a while though the North at this stage stays breezy, cooler and more changeable. As the ridge pulls away East next week an area of slack pressure gradients develops across the UK with light winds, warm conditions and an increasing chance of showers as we move from the midweek period to the end of the run when cooler air looks like extending back to many areas.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  this morning shows the same pattern as previously for the position we're likely to lie under in 10 days time. Low pressure is shown up to the NW with a trough close to Western Britain with slack winds across the UK. With pressure between it's members averaging under 1015mbs UK wide some rain or showers can be expected, still probably focused most towards the NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Though improvements continue to be shown from most models in the shape of High pressure ridging from the SW the axis looks too far South to affect all areas on much of this morning's output.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 86.0 pts followed by GFS at 83.3 and UKMO at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.4 pts over GFS's 53.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.4 pts to 33.7 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS All models show a High pressure ridge building towards the far South of England during this coming weekend and bringing warm and humid air up across much of Southern Britain at the weekend though wall to wall sunshine is unlikely under often large amounts of cloud. In the North things look much more changeable still as a strong WSW flow delivers a lot of cloudy and damp weather for a time. It's what happens to the High pressure in the South after the start of next week which determines whether the North shares in the better weather or not as too much output for my liking push the High pressure away to the East too quickly which allows lower pressure to reassert some influence across the UK by the mid to end of next week with the inevitable showers scattered about. I still feel the Jet stream remains a factor in this dilemma as although blowing further to the Northwest than it has for some considerable time next week it remains close enough to put pressure on the extent that warm conditions are allowed to push up across other areas of the UK away from the far South and SE. Nevertheless, there is some output that do build a second ridge on a much more Northerly trajectory next week which would include the North becoming fine and warm so all is not lost for you folk in the North. The problem is though that hemispheric synoptics do not seem ideal to hold things in a static positions with regard to High pressure near or over the UK with all output having the desire to pull back some Low pressure and cooler temperatures at some point, most likely from the West and NW. So while I remain optimistic about some improvements, certainly in the South and less so further North I won't be shouting from the rooftops that a prolonged very warm and settled spell is likely across the UK yet as there remains too many 'if's and but's' in the projections but I think most places should see some reasonable weather over the coming week or two without it ever becoming mesmerising. 

 

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Aug 6th 2015

[knocker]

Time for a quick reappraisal in the light of the recent runs. At the risk of stating the obvious the key is, as it has been for much of the summer,  the position of the upper trough. With the current analysis there is a very fine line between good weather over the whole of the UK, a north/south split and even unsettled for all. And, keeping it simple, it's down to the position of the trough.

 

In my very unexpert opinion the models haven't been handling the position of the trough very well apart from NOAA that has stuck pretty rigidly to it's guns. (h/t JH) and it does explain why the METO were not committing themselves to HP building over the weekend. The GEFS in particular has been away with the fairies at times although it's back in line now, but then it should be. The ECM was closer to the mark and then backed off a tad.

 

So where do we go from here. Well they are both back in the fold swinging the Iceland trough east (the reason for the downgrading Sunday) to a position north of Scotland Wednesday which should bring reasonable weather to all but the north I'm afraid. But the ecm is still developing a low pressure area off of Spain ( I mentioned this a couple of days ago) which accounts for slack low pressure areas moving north on the ops run. Worth keeping an eye on this.

 

Thereafter at day ten they go their separate ways again with the GEFS keeping the status quo and the ECM developing the trough to the west south to Spain. So uncertainty abounds.

Charts weather bell

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited August 5, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

Utterly dire performance from the ecm and gfs . I think we can safely say that FI has come closer than ever before!

 

sorry mate, but thats ridiculous.

in what way have the ecm and gfs outputs been 'dire'? theyve matched pretty well what the noaa anomaly charts have suggested for the upper air pattern, true theyve had a few runs that have over amplified the azores ridge, but its still there albeit slightly further to the south. seasoned model watchers know that nothings set in stone and things can change at short notice.

id suggest you view the model performance stats that gibby posts, which prove the gfs and ecm are hardly 'dire'.

so theres no high pressure sat over us.... so what?, we are still in line for a lot of very pleasant summer weather and with a bit of heat thrown in the mix as we are likely to import some heat and humidity temporarily off the continent, the noaa charts allow for this scenario so current op predictions of these mini heatwaves are totally plausible.

ok, those in the northwest as usual wont fare too greatly it must be said, but many of us in england shouldnt fare badly at all with some very pleasant summer weather, hardly the disaster some would have us believe.

[knocker]

As an example of how  finely balanced a particular evolution can be take the scenario that the ECM ops was proposing this morning with a low traveling up from France and in particular the movement of the very warm air. Will the upper trough near Spain verify? Now there's a question

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited August 5, 2015 by knocker

[Bristawl Si]

I thought the models were pointing to a settled warm spell for last couple of days model output, looking ahead to weekend and into next week, even thru to following w/e.

Now it's gone Pete Tong. Reminds of winter model watching when consecutive model runs, over a few days, point to a cold spell...and then at last minute it implodes.

That ole Atlantic influence again!

Edited August 5, 2015 by Bristle boy

[Frosty.]

What's gone Pete tong?

The Gfs 6z shows plenty of warm / very warm and settled weather across most of England and Wales during the next few weeks, especially further south and southeast with high pressure or at least strong ridging being frequent with only short-lived unsettled blips. The really unsettled and cool weather is across the n/nw of the UK where it has been all summer. There has been no downgrade to the met office extended range outlook, it continues to indicate a lot of fine and warm / very warm weather for the southern half of the UK with a chance of hot spells in the south too. If anyone has a right to moan on here, it's all those in the more northern / north western parts of the UK who are still waiting for summer to start and no sign of it!

Edited August 5, 2015 by Frosty.

[Bristawl Si]

Frosty - dont the fax charts for the w/e show a series of fronts crossing the uk on an atlantic flow?

My phone weather app has gone from 23/24c and sunny for next week to 20c and showers everyday.

[Frosty.]

Frosty - dont the fax charts for the w/e show a series of fronts crossing the uk on an atlantic flow?

Hi Bristle boy, yes that's correct, Friday shows a front to the southwest but Saturday looks front free for many and fine under a ridge of high pressure but then Sunday shows fronts pushing rain across northern UK and a weakening warm then cold front pushing southeast across England but probably just a narrow band of cloud by then but fine and warm s/e corner with 23/24c. I imagine a few fronts next Monday too but mostly across the nw. As for most of next week, it looks like a ridge of high pressure will build in with fine and warm weather, at least for most of England and Wales, I still think the south will warm up quite nicely next week and be largely fine with plenty of sunshine.

Edited August 5, 2015 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

Hi Bristle boy, yes that's correct, Friday shows a front to the southwest but Saturday looks front free for many and fine under a ridge of high pressure but then Sunday shows fronts pushing rain across northern UK and a weakening warm then cold front pushing southeast across England but probably just a narrow band of cloud by then but fine and warm s/e corner with 23/24c. I imagine a few fronts next Monday too but mostly across the nw. As for most of next week, it looks like a ridge of high pressure will build in with fine and warm weather, at least for most of England and Wales, I still think the south will warm up quite nicely next week and be largely fine with plenty of sunshine.

 

 

plus... ive noticed the the fax charts over state the frontal systems, id be rather surprised if the current predicted charts for sunday dont change.

the outlook simply isnt bad, unless anything less then two weeks of sunshine and temps above 25c is whats required.

[DR(S)NO]

plus... ive noticed the the fax charts over state the frontal systems, id be rather surprised if the current predicted charts for sunday dont change.

the outlook simply isnt bad, unless anything less then two weeks of sunshine and temps above 25c is whats required.

Hi Mushy.......for those living in the Northern half of the UK...more especially North and west Scotland......I'm afraid that's exactly what's required

And even that would not redeem this non summer.

Anything remotely good in FI remains,for us at least,as far away as ever.

[Frosty.]

plus... ive noticed the fax charts over state the frontal systems, id be rather surprised if the current predicted charts for sunday dont change.

the outlook simply isnt bad, unless anything less then two weeks of sunshine and temps above 25c is whats required.

I agree mushy, the charts for Sunday show fronts sliding SE but very weak features by then with just patchy cloud and the odd shower on them and still some warm sunny spells. The outlook beyond the weekend looks very decent for most of England and Wales with largely fine and warm / very warm spells but for Cumbria / N.Ireland and Scotland it looks cool and unsettled with limited fine / warmer intervals. Edited August 5, 2015 by Frosty.

[Mokidugway]

I agree mushy, the charts for Sunday show fronts sliding SE but very weak features by then with just patchy cloud and the odd shower on them and still some warm sunny spells. The outlook beyond the weekend looks very decent for most of England and Wales with largely fine and warm / very warm spells but for Cumbria / N.Ireland and Scotland it looks cool and unsettled with limited fine / warmer intervals.

tbh frosty cumbria North looks bloody awfull with that dreaded wind !!.

[Frosty.]

tbh frosty cumbria North looks bloody awfull with that dreaded wind !!.

Agreed, really abysmal further north and yet the south / southeast has had a largely good summer and will continue to do so. If I lived in the SE I would be happy as larry with this summer and the MO mentioning a chance of hot spells in the south for the rest of august, the cruelest of nw/se splits is occurring this summer.

[ANYWEATHER]

sorry mate, but thats ridiculous.

in what way have the ecm and gfs outputs been 'dire'? theyve matched pretty well what the noaa anomaly charts have suggested for the upper air pattern, true theyve had a few runs that have over amplified the azores ridge, but its still there albeit slightly further to the south. seasoned model watchers know that nothings set in stone and things can change at short notice.

id suggest you view the model performance stats that gibby posts, which prove the gfs and ecm are hardly 'dire'.

so theres no high pressure sat over us.... so what?, we are still in line for a lot of very pleasant summer weather and with a bit of heat thrown in the mix as we are likely to import some heat and humidity temporarily off the continent, the noaa charts allow for this scenario so current op predictions of these mini heatwaves are totally plausible.

ok, those in the northwest as usual wont fare too greatly it must be said, but many of us in england shouldnt fare badly at all with some very pleasant summer weather, hardly the disaster some would have us believe.

There are people on here getting there hopes up because there was a predicted high pressure scenario a couple of days ago, now that's gone, that to me spells poor performance from the models, even you were getting sucked in by a predicted hot dry spell,

[mushymanrob]

Hi Mushy.......for those living in the Northern half of the UK...more especially North and west Scotland......I'm afraid that's exactly what's required

And even that would not redeem this non summer.

Anything remotely good in FI remains,for us at least,as far away as ever.

 

yeah i can appreciate that, and if the rest of us had the outlook you have then id agree with the doom mongers. but generally most of england look like having fairly pleasant, average (or slightly above) outlook which at last gives some of us a half decent august at last.

[mushymanrob]

There are people on here getting there hopes up because there was a predicted high pressure scenario a couple of days ago, now that's gone, that to me spells poor performance from the models, even you were getting sucked in by a predicted hot dry spell,

 

well its not really gone is it, thats my point, it might not be a big fat anticyclone sitting right on top of us, but pressures still expected to be high in the south, theres little rain off showers or frontal systems, and temps are set to be pleasant.

that doesnt spell of a poor performance model wise as they model what the available data suggests, putting too much weight on fi charts is of course a risk.

so for most of england, away from the north west, it is looking pretty dry, and pretty warm, with the chance of something hot albeit transitory. thats not bad, and certainly not as bad as you were suggesting!

to add, i think that most rain we are likely to get will be off thundery activity from the south, as opposed to atlantic systems/showers

Edited August 5, 2015 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

There are people on here getting there hopes up because there was a predicted high pressure scenario a couple of days ago, now that's gone, that to me spells poor performance from the models, even you were getting sucked in by a predicted hot dry spell,

 

What I'm failing to understand is if the model performance was poor, and that is reasonable statement, how did you get it correct, as you have mentioned ad nauseam, if your posts were based on the models? Do you have a remarkable insight that us mere mortals haven't or, and this is really unthinkable, you took an opposite view just be contrary and struck lucky?

[Man With Beard]

An often forgotten model on here is the UKMO, I imagine because of its little public output. Tonight, it is a cracker. It repeats the ECMs trick of this morning of splitting just enough energy to allow the Azores High to build over the top by next Tuesday. Basically, it says "yes" to the heatwave.

Incidentally, how can anyone say the build of High Pressure is off when it's still 5 days away?!! I remember well being shouted down over the July 1st debacle, many saying "nothing out of the ordinary in the models" despite blatant evidence to the contrary - well I feel the same thing is happening again and to avoid the risk of embarrassment, I'd caution anyone against writing off a widespread heatwave next week just yet, because let me be clear - that is exactly what i believe the UKMO (often a rather miserly model) is saying tonight.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows an unsettled start to next week with outbreaks of rain but for the rest of the week it looks increasingly settled and warm as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in from the southwest across the south, becoming very warm through the 2nd half of next week in the south of the uk, locally hot. The north has some fine weather next week too but much cooler than further south and then becoming unsettled and windy across the north of britain again by the end of next week. Meanwhile, the ukmo 12z favours a return to very warm / hot conditions as next week goes on further south with a chance of T-Storms later, incidentally, the met office mentioned a risk of Storms for the south in their update today along with a chance of hot spells so anyone who says the outlook is poor for the south of the UK is WRONG!