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Surrey

Summer lows incoming

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Can't see a thread for this yet thought I would start one as the models begin to throw out some potentiality VERY un seasonal weather... De ju vu?

 

 

airpressure.png

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Autumn is early....sorry its my fault i booked some time off work.

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I think you might be right Cableguy, although there are hints at a pressure rise in August.. Time will tell 

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Definitely looking a bit damp.

 

post-2-0-98377600-1437644460_thumb.png

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Definitely looking a bit damp.

 

attachicon.gifsoggyfriday.png

 

Would only take a VERY slight nudge north of this low and bigger problems for a larger area come into play..

 

Anyone seen the potential storm next week the GFS is picking up on :O

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An interesting low and track; It now has a good fix so tracking it will be relatively easy,, that shown by Met is probably the best guide we have at the moment, see their Fax charts, link below

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

Whether their model or GFS will be the most accurate only time will tell.

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I would love to see what the final total will be for July in my little part of the world. If it's not been persistent rain then it's been really heavy showers at times. Thankfully that low coming up tomorrow won't get near us but still got Sunday's to come

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Roll on the end of next week when I can get out of here, that's what I say! It's about as like summer as it was back in March, and the way things are going it doesn't surprise me that gales and rain are on their way. Damn jet stream...looks like it's hanging in right over the UK for the foreseeable.

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Bring it on! all this stagnant weather has been tiresome.

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Am actually looking forward to a heavy downpour day tomorrow. Allotments and garden needs it. Hope it materialises and we don't just get the cloud and wind with drizzle lol...winds shouldn't be too bad here but East Anglia might cop it worse. Nothing like the Low Countries and N Germany though! They're going to get battered if the GFS/fax charts are right....proper winter charts, shocking for late July.

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The plants and lawn need it, but if it could toddle off for my holiday to Devon next week, that would be fab.

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If the 12z GFS is anywhere near correct then places in the south of England, roughly south of the M4 corridor-just north of London perhaps, could see 150mm of rain in about 12-18 hours.

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If the 12z GFS is anywhere near correct then places in the south of England, roughly south of the M4 corridor-just north of London perhaps, could see 150mm of rain in about 12-18 hours.

potential flooding from rain on hard parched soil a possibility then...

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potential flooding from rain on hard parched soil a possibility then...

 

hence UK Met warnings for those areas. I think their Fax charts are as close as anyone will get 12 hours or more out from T+00. Looking at the 500mb contour chart it is the track you would expect the low to follow with only slight deepening occurring. No marked jet or marked confluence or diffluence in the contour pattern ahead, over and behind the system as of now.

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Estofax 15% lightning line over southern UK..

Models over night no real change although all firm on some very very intense rain running up from the iow through London and up into Norfolk this is key area to the highest totals today I think..

Also they show the ppn spinning back down over the south East as the low exits tomorrow early morning into the north Sea.

What I don't want to happen is the "pivot" be when that extremely heavy rain is forecast :/

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Just looks like a standard wet day on the cards to me.....

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Not sure what's going on here, this rain band is MUCH weaker than forecast. I've only recorded 8.0 mm so far today. Quite a lot lower than previously thought!

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Not sure what's going on here, this rain band is MUCH weaker than forecast. I've only recorded 8.0 mm so far today. Quite a lot lower than previously thought!

 

The south west awas always getting the lower total is the South east that needs watching HENCE the warnings.. 

 

nmm_uk1-1-13-0.png?24-06

 

nmm_uk1-1-15-0.png?24-06

 

nmm_uk1-1-17-0.png?24-06

 

nmm_uk1-1-19-0.png?24-07

 

nmm_uk1-1-21-0.png?24-07

 

nmm_uk1-1-23-0.png?24-07

 

nmm_uk1-1-25-0.png?24-07

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The south west awas always getting the lower total is the South east that needs watching HENCE the warnings.. 

 

nmm_uk1-1-13-0.png?24-06

 

nmm_uk1-1-15-0.png?24-06

 

nmm_uk1-1-17-0.png?24-06

 

nmm_uk1-1-19-0.png?24-07

 

nmm_uk1-1-21-0.png?24-07

 

nmm_uk1-1-23-0.png?24-07

 

nmm_uk1-1-25-0.png?24-07

Really? At first, the charts you showed me had us in the firing line today and now you're showing me totally different charts with most of the rainfall over the SE. Yes, I know the SE is going to be worst hit today, but right now that doesn't look to be the case looking at the radar.

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I know this is quite random but anyone seeing those weird lines in the radar over mid wales on the 8:15 am one.

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Really? At first, the charts you showed me had us in the firing line today and now you're showing me totally different charts with most of the rainfall over the SE. Yes, I know the SE is going to be worst hit today, but right now that doesn't look to be the case looking at the radar.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83620-summer-lows-incoming/?p=3237808

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I saw that chart, but I was highlighting that AT FIRST we were going to be hit by the most rainfall and then LATER ON the SE get the brunt, hence the warnings. What I was also trying to reitorate is the fact that the charts YOU posted were showing the SW to be HIT more than the SE!

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I saw that chart, but I was highlighting that AT FIRST we were going to be hit by the most rainfall and then LATER ON the SE get the brunt, hence the warnings. What I was also trying to reitorate is the fact that the charts YOU posted were showing the SW to be HIT more than the SE!

 

I wouldn't knock it of yet.. You seen the SAT and Radar??

 

Thats some highhhh cloud tops

 

post-12648-0-44401800-1437724103_thumb.j

 

post-12648-0-03070100-1437724108_thumb.p

 

Like to also note that the low is currently deepening as it moves East so will gain "umph" as it does so with North Germany getting the real brunt illustrated here:

 

 

airpressure.png

airpressure.png

airpressure.png

airpressure.png

 

airpressure.png

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Crazy scenes here, a few drops of rain in the air and winds gusting to 7mph....Yes i know its going to rain a bit later but this as usual has been over hyped on forums...

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