Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi yes was out walking dogs lightning and thunder

Thanks Twister2005

[stainesbloke]

Some really beautiful plume-like skies this evening here, looked like storms on the way! Maybe later?

[UKSupercell]

Some really beautiful plume-like skies this evening here, looked like storms on the way! Maybe later?

 

Ditto. Same sort of skies tonight. Floccus, Castellanus or whatever you want to call it. Atmospheric instability, though I don't believe we're in for storms tomorrow? 

[stainesbloke]

Ditto. Same sort of skies tonight. Floccus, Castellanus or whatever you want to call it. Atmospheric instability, though I don't believe we're in for storms tomorrow?

Stunning skies, lovely to see. If that cold front tomorrow wasn't smashing across us at 200mph then we might have a chance but as it stands, France will be the place to be again no doubt.

[Greeny]

Looks like its going to be quite warm and quite muggy for most of England today. The instability as said earlier looks to stay over the continent and sweep away to the east. GFS shows late afternoon a sudden rise to 20C dewpoint in a small area, perhaps over Belgium.

[Gordon Webb]

BBC breakfast suggested something over SE England and into parts of East Anglia overnight for those who are interested , as I'm no expert not sure how much truth there is to it

[Nick F]

A chance of some thundery downpours clipping the far southeast of England later this evening/early hours of Tuesday, UKMO meso and ECMWF suggests east Kent Clipper, HIRLAM a little further west across SE and E Anglia. Seems to be a re-activation of the cold front which moves in later across eastern England. 

 

I'm down in Kent tonight, so would be nice to see a few flashes after a thunder drought since mid-July.

Edited August 3, 2015 by Nick F

[Gordon Webb]

don't think I've seen any thunder since sunday 5th July not that I'm complaining about it

[Nouska]

Looks like an interesting night in prospect for me.

 

 

What does the 'homespun' model make of it?

 

 

Much needed rain missing target....

 

Soundings now available from AROME.  

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/sondage_arome.php

[Tim Bland]

I see on the radar the cold front is reactivating already as it crosses southern areas.  No strikes yet but looks good for the extreme east / South east later

[Carl46Wrexham]

don't think I've seen any thunder since sunday 5th July not that I'm complaining about it

You need to spend some time in somewhere like Lanzarote where I am right now...29c in the shade, constant refreshing breeze, and most important for someone who is fearful of storms, such as yourself, not the faintest chance of thunder.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prehaps the very faintest of chance of a rumble down south later 

[Sprites]

Prehaps the very faintest of chance of a rumble down south later

A lunch of broccoli cheese salad and a fizzy drink should do it.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A lunch of broccoli cheese salad and a fizzy drink should do it.

 

rocket salad would be preferred though 

[Nick F]

CONVECTIVE / STORM OUTLOOK WEDS 5TH AUGUST

 

Valid: 05/08/2015 0600z to 06/08/2015 0600z

 

 

Upper trough to the W and NW of the British Isles will drive a strong cyclonic southwesterly flow across the UK, a short-wave trough moving NE in the SWly upper flow will be accompanied by a surface low which will run NNE across Ireland as an open wave before reaching Scotland by midnight. Associated cold front will push NE across Ireland and western Britain Weds night, before clearing east Thursday morning

 

... IRELAND, N. IRELAND, SW ENGLAND, WALES, NW ENGLAND, SCOTLAND ...

 

Warm air advection consisting of shallow plume of moist boundary layer air (theta-w values of 14C) will spread north across the above areas this afternoon and evening as low moves NNE across Ireland and eventually Scotland.

 

Across Ireland and N Ireland, large scale ascent of this shallow moisture as low and associated frontal triple point moves through combined with surface heating and steep lapse rates will support heavy showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Fairly strong SWly upper flow should allow some organised storms or storm clusters capable of gusty winds and perhaps marginally large hail, Also, shallow moisture and surface heating, with low cloud bases (Lifted Condensation Level of 200-400m) combined with some backing winds at the surface as surface low moves through may allow one or two funnels or even a weak tornado to form with stronger updrafts. However, there remains some question marks over how much surface instability will be realized, given uncertainties over cloud cover, but will issue a marginal risk here despite this.

 

Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and isolated (mainly elevated) storms are likely to spread NE across SW England, Wales, NW England and later Scotland in the warm moist airmass characterised by steepening lapse rates aloft as short wave trough over-runs the warm moist conveyor ahead of the cold front moving in across the west tonight.

 

... ELSEWHERE ...

 

Showers will also spread NE across Midlands along with E and SE England, instability here is forecast by GFS to be rather meager / weak here, however isolated lightning can't be ruled out with heavy showers moving through here, given moist airmass, steepening lapse rates and increased forcing for ascent arriving from the SW.

[Thunderbolt_]

Just had a light convective shower here with some very large raindrops. It's weird because the clouds that produced it just looked like typical fair weather clouds.

[Spikecollie]

We had an amazing couple of hours of thunderstorms while camping in our tent in Sens on Monday evening on the way down to Limousin. The gusty winds got a bit scary at one point but it's a good tent and did it's job. I got to watch some lovely elevated lightning- and no rain until much later. Magic...

Edited August 5, 2015 by Spikecollie

[Thunderbolt_]

I saw this photo in my Twitter feed before, of a plane being struck by lightning at Calgary Airport during a thunderstorm yesterday evening:

 

https://twitter.com/CJAY92/status/628728805121601536/photo/1

[Weather-history]

I saw this photo in my Twitter feed before, of a plane being struck by lightning at Calgary Airport during a thunderstorm yesterday evening:

 

https://twitter.com/CJAY92/status/628728805121601536/photo/1

It looks to me the lightning struck behind the plane rather than the plane itself.

[Evening thunder]

I saw this photo in my Twitter feed before, of a plane being struck by lightning at Calgary Airport during a thunderstorm yesterday evening:

 

https://twitter.com/CJAY92/status/628728805121601536/photo/1

 

Surely it must be striking behind the plane as the cloud base where it originates looks way too far away?

 

Edit: beaten to it

Edited August 5, 2015 by Evening thunder

[A.J]

a couple of storms have broken out over the Channel Islands tracking NE towards the south coast

Edited August 5, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[ztam]

looking like its heading towards me on the isle of wight

[poseidon]

a couple of storms have broken out over the Channel Islands tracking NE towards the south coast

Interesting, and from www.convectiveweather.co.uk ........

 

As the ThetaE plume continues to advect northeastwards, potential then shifts to perhaps some elevated convection developing over the English Channel/southern coastal counties of England by the end of the afternoon, this then migrating NEwards through the evening while expanding in coverage, reaching parts of East Anglia by 8-10pm local. Instability is rather meagre, and so lightning activity may be rather sporadic/isolated in nature, but there is certainly some scope for elevated convective showers at the very least. Given low lightning potential, we remain with an ISOL.

[MP-R]

Just drove down the M5 between Avonmouth and Clevedon through sheets of torrential rain. Don't know of any thunder as was in the car but plenty of surface water and silly driving!

[sunnijim]

Storms really fireing now in the channel on a SE England track....the cat has also gone under the bed. You don't need model guidance when the 'whisker network' warns of thunder incoming!