Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[Spikecollie]

 

 

  confused why there is cape sitting over France with little PPN ...

The ingredients other than CAPE must be missing...

[Methuselah]

The ingredients other than CAPE must be missing...

Like a complete lack of instability, sc?

[chapmanslade]

There are thundery showers predicted for Brittany - it is to the south of the low which will run up the Channel

[Stormyking]

Dont suppose any of this rain could have a thundry element?

 

 

 

 

 

  confused why there is cape sitting over France with little PPN ...

Sometimes rain and storms doesn't have to be where the strongest cape and lifted is, that is also surface based, so there may be some little disturbances further up into the mid level,.

 

 

Looking at this there is a little boost of Mid Level cape in the channel and just touching the South Coast of the UK, there may also be other little features that could turn parts of this rain quite Thundery, im about 50-60% Confident there could be the odd flash and bang in parts of this rain, as it does look more and more convective as each run comes out. Ive kept an eye on this all week lol.

 

Little things like this, the Surface winds across the South and South East Is North Easterly

 

Yet the Mid Level winds are coming from The South to South East andyou can see a convergence zone of some sort coming in from the West

Hope some of this helps somewhat matey and to others, in actual im willing to go as far 65% confidence for some thunder potential embedded

Edited July 23, 2015 by Stormyking

[Supacell]

The best of the thundery weather associated with this low looks to be across the north of France and in the southern Channel. However the 12z GFS does bring the risk of some thunderstorms into the far SW of Cornwall early tomorrow and then Kent by late afternoon/evening. If the low pressure system moves slightly north than this then it would bring a risk across more of the south. However, for most it looks like dynamic rainfall. This can  be seen clearly on the two charts below for tomorrow evening - left is precipitation both dynamic and convective, right is just convective:

 

  

 

Storm risk for the SE

 

 

I would imagine a 100 mile shift north would bring the risk 100 miles north, but a 10 mile shift south would remove the risk for the UK entirely.

 

The NMM has a very similar scenario although also brings more of southern and eastern England into the mix too by late evening. This is MLCAPE, showing the risk of some elevated instability.

 

 

My current take on things is for there to be some thunderstorm activity in the Channel which will certainly affect the Channel Islands. There may be some thunder across areas such as Lands End and the Isles of Scilly early on and then a higher risk across areas to the SE of London later on. The risk of severe thunderstorms is unlikely as most would be elevated but outside of just convective severe weather there is a broad risk of heavy rain and strong winds which could (likely) to cause problem across the entire southern portion of England, especially the SE.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

^^ thank you lads appreciate it.

I post something and get world class answer's

[Biggin]

Lol okay buddy.. 

 

 

 

Those tickling you yet? 

 

Falling on soild ground down here in the south east.. The thunderstorms we had the other night dropped 20mm in total over 3-4 hours.. The stream near me burst it's banks for a while, you could see the water line on the walls around it down the path that runs along side it

Looking good

Edited July 23, 2015 by Biggin

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This time two years ago it was about to go BANG!

[Spikecollie]

Carol Kirkwood has just mentioned embedded thunder for you folks down south...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Carol Kirkwood has just mentioned embedded thunder for you folks down south...

 

So I did get it right yesterday along with the others who mentioned it 

[Supacell]

This time two years ago it was about to go BANG!

I think you are a day late mate, it was the early hours of the 23rd two years ago :-)

[William Grimsley]

Absoloutely chucking it down here now with some very big drops, still no thunder though!

[alexisj9]

I think you are a day late mate, it was the early hours of the 23rd two years ago :-)

The evening of the night I moved, yep was a good storm here, even took the power off 6 times.

Edited July 24, 2015 by alexisj9

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Absoloutely chucking it down here now with some very big drops, still no thunder though!

 

 

Not far of lol Embedded is the word! 

[William Grimsley]

light.jpg

 

Not far of lol Embedded is the word! 

Defenitely embedded, just too far north again!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I think you are a day late mate, it was the early hours of the 23rd two years ago :-)

Indeed you're right! 

It seemed extra special that one too as it was a resumption of night storms what seemed to be on pause for years! 

[William Grimsley]

Some small and intense thunderstorms in the English Channel now, unfortunately not going towards me. They looking like tracking towards central southern England. That thunderstorm in the western English Channel might approach me later...

[vladthemert]

heavy rainfall now near aylsham  norwich accord to rain today 

[sparky1972]

been steady rain for a little while now, metoffice have us down for another 12 hours of heavy rain, not sure it will be as bad as that but a bit of thunder would be nice.

[Lauren]

I noticed they have said thunder is likely as the winds pick up (presumably because of he pressure drop), but why just say thunder? Surely it T & L?

[Sprites]

I noticed they have said thunder is likely as the winds pick up (presumably because of he pressure drop), but why just say thunder? Surely it T & L

If you ware a blindfold and have no windows, its just thunder.

I noticed they have said thunder is likely as the winds pick up (presumably because of he pressure drop), but why just say thunder? Surely it T & L?

Global warming?

[Spikecollie]

Some nice little storms now in northern France and the Channel Islands...

[Nick F]

Sferics over West Kent / East Sussex border around Wadhurst recently and a lot more lightning activity over the western E. Channel and Channel Islands atm

A lot of strong convective activity this afternoon over the Channel and northern France where the warm moist air drawn up from SW France and Spain interacts with upper shortwave and cold front moving NE with the low. This activity could clip SE England next few hours.

Actually brightening up and rain easing here.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Nick F

[Homerr]

Didn't see anything on the lightning maps but could have sworn we had some thunder here in Portland. It's been absolutely throwing it down for hours now so wouldn't have been too surprised for it to have been thunder...

[alexisj9]

Didn't see anything on the lightning maps but could have sworn we had some thunder here in Portland. It's been absolutely throwing it down for hours now so wouldn't have been too surprised for it to have been thunder...

Think I heard something here too, again nothing on lightning map, very distant.

 

Think it's that stuff just leaving France, is it possible to hear that from here?

Edited July 24, 2015 by alexisj9