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Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Which country has been jinxed this time then?  :laugh:

I think she was talking about the whole of Europe, south of Bordeaux - seems like pretty normal July into August southern European weather to me though! She also referred to the fact that the long standing heatwave in some parts had been causing problems, not by its intensity but by its duration.

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Rain123 Apprentice

Rain123

Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
Posted

Looks like there is quite a heavy area of rain round the Cotswold area. Could that produce a few sparks? 

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snowprincesspboro Apprentice

snowprincesspboro

Posted
  • Location: peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: extremes, snow, thunder, hot heat, ice cold, etc
  • Location: peterborough
Posted (edited)

post-23225-0-79396500-1437420012_thumb.jpost-23225-0-44849700-1437420020_thumb.j

 

pics of sky after the rain had cleared, only 1 long low rumble heard, nice looking sky thou ;)

 

got a couple more nicer ones but phone just died :(

Edited by snowprincesspboro
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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

Just for tomorrow temps rise to mid 20's in the East and becomes increasingly humid, dewpoints to 17C as the day wears on and there seems to be a risk of showers popping up in the afternoon. According to GFS LI is still positive with modest CAPE but DLS is strong so this could aid convection. A warm front sweeps in from the South and then a cold front quickly sweeps in from the west clearing away into the evening. Just seen lapse rates and they are not that steep really however convective precip is forecast by GFS. Storm risk is very low though. Euro4 showing a plume of high Theta - W of between 16-18C in the afternoon over EA and the Southeast (Ah thats probably indicating the warm front then).

 

I do need someone with a bit more experience and knowledge to chip in on this if anyone can lend a hand I will be appreciative.

 

I was feeling a little kind of worried that I was just clutching at straws but gladly something did materialise out of my observations. I knew it wasn't going to be anything big but got a report from Alison Fisher of thunder and torrential rain in Skeggy. She took this pic about 30 mins before it hit.

post-7331-0-29062300-1437424590_thumb.jp

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Snowshine Enthusiast

Snowshine

Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire
Posted

Despite that one decent thunderstorm earlier in the month, it has been very poor storm-wise so far this summer. Perhaps my expectations are too high, but this time last year I had recorded at least four decent thunderstorms (throughout 2014). The average thunder days is supposed to be over ten, only two so far, and July is supposed to be the most thundery month. Instead we get temperatures comparable to New Years Day, low pressure systems directly over us, and limited sunshine. Hopefully August will be suitable for a BBQ.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Despite that one decent thunderstorm earlier in the month, it has been very poor storm-wise so far this summer. Perhaps my expectations are too high, but this time last year I had recorded at least four decent thunderstorms (throughout 2014). The average thunder days is supposed to be over ten, only two so far, and July is supposed to be the most thundery month. Instead we get temperatures comparable to New Years Day, low pressure systems directly over us, and limited sunshine. Hopefully August will be suitable for a BBQ.

Depends on location.

This year for me has been better than 2014 thus far. I largely missed out on thundery activity here in 2014. Whereas this year I've witnessed possibly two storms that would be candidates for the best of the decade. I'd take summer 2015 over the likes of 2007-12 any day of the week!

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Not storm related well... I dunno but anyone seen this for tomorrow....  :help:

 

nmmuk-1-37-0.png?23-07

 

nmmuk-1-42-0.png?23-07

 

 

Different views as always... 

 

15072406_2300.gif

 

15072415_2300.gif

 

Thats some bloody heavy prolonged rain!

I'm not sure how this is :help: it's mainly moderate rain and will only last for a few hours especially away from the far SE corner, nothing to get concerned about. LOL :D

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm not sure how this is :help: it's mainly moderate rain and will only last for a few hours especially away from the far SE corner, nothing to get concerned about. LOL :D

 

Lol okay buddy.. 

 

nmmuk-25-46-0.png?23-0715072412_2300.gif

 

15072415_2300.gif

15072421_2300.gif

 

Those tickling you yet? 

 

Falling on soild ground down here in the south east.. The thunderstorms we had the other night dropped 20mm in total over 3-4 hours.. The stream near me burst it's banks for a while, you could see the water line on the walls around it down the path that runs along side it

Edited by Surrey
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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Lol okay buddy.. 

 

nmmuk-25-46-0.png?23-0715072412_2300.gif

 

15072415_2300.gif

15072421_2300.gif

 

Those tickling you yet? 

 

Falling on soild ground down here in the south east.. The thunderstorms we had the other night dropped 20mm in total over 3-4 hours.. The stream near me burst it's banks for a while, you could see the water line on the walls around it down the path that runs along side it

Now, that is something else! I must have misdjudged the rainfall rates on the previous charts! The ground is pretty dry here aswell, only a few short and sharp periods of rain here over the past few months.

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

Now, that is something else! I must have misdjudged the rainfall rates on the previous charts! The ground is pretty dry here aswell, only a few short and sharp periods of rain here over the past few months.

 

I know... 40-50mm 60-75mm in places.. I didn't even see this little feature till this morning.. This is a little more worrying to for the east coast.. 

 

airpressure.png

airpressure.png

 

Could be some hefty winds on the East coast as this little low zips up the channel and out the other side.. 

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

I know... 40-50mm 60-75mm in places.. I didn't even see this little feature till this morning.. This is a little more worrying to for the east coast.. 

 

airpressure.png

airpressure.png

 

Could be some hefty winds on the East coast as this little low zips up the channel and out the other side.. 

Yep, possibly a North Sea storm surge? LOL :D UKWF only going for 10 - 20 mm widely with up to 40 mm for SE corner, but would like to see more.

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

Yep, possibly a North Sea storm surge? LOL :D UKWF only going for 10 - 20 mm widely with up to 40 mm for SE corner, but would like to see more.

 

20-40mms over the course of one afternoon is a lot of rainfall. Falling onto dry ground in the south, it could easily cause quite a lot of problems.

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

20-40mms over the course of one afternoon is a lot of rainfall. Falling onto dry ground in the south, it could easily cause quite a lot of problems.

 

Yeah, Backs my point earlier... I await tonight's runs perhaps see the MET coming into play soon to.. Check the wind speeds out for the East coast early Saturday... So so not this kind of weather for July. I think this is the right chart.. 

51-289UK.GIF?23-0

 

 

57-289UK.GIF?23-0

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Now that would be quite worrying for me! Wouldn't mind taking a trip to North Norfolk for that though, could be very interesting!

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

On another note. it is two years today since this thunderstorm:

 

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

Yeah, Backs my point earlier... I await tonight's runs perhaps see the MET coming into play soon to.. Check the wind speeds out for the East coast early Saturday... So so not this kind of weather for July. I think this is the right chart.. 

51-289UK.GIF?23-0

 

 

57-289UK.GIF?23-0

Those charts wouldn't look out of place in October! Crikey.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Warnings out for tomorrow and early Saturday

 

Issued at: 1015 on Thu 23 Jul 2015

Valid from: 1200 on Fri 24 Jul 2015

Valid to: 0900 on Sat 25 Jul 2015

 

An area of rain and strong to gale force winds is expected to cross much of southern England before clearing to the east on Saturday morning. There is a low likelihood that the system could be intense enough to bring disruptive wind and rain to some parts. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption particularly for those engaged in outdoor activities.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An area of low pressure is expected to run northeastwards close to southern England clearing on Saturday. Whilst a wet and windy period is expected, particularly in southeast England, there remain large uncertainties in the track and intensity of this low pressure system. More than 20 mm is expected quite widely however, there is a low likelihood that this will be deeper bringing the potential for more than 60 mm of rain in some places as well as gusts of around 50 mph on coasts and 40 mph inland. Were this to occur some disruption, particularly to outdoor activities, would be likely as well as disruption to travel given the large volume of traffic on Friday afternoon. This warning is likely to be updated as further information becomes available.

 

Areas under the warnings

 

Northamptonshire, Lincolnshire

 

Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Suffolk, Southend-on-Sea, Thurrock, Luton, Bedford, Peterborough

 

Wiltshire, Swindon

 

Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire, West Berkshire, Bracknell Forest, Greater London, Hampshire, Reading, Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham, East Sussex, Kent, Medway, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, West Sussex, Brighton and Hove, Isle of Wight, Milton Keynes

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1437692400&regionName=se

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