Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[Supacell]

No point me chasing tonight, or indeed staying up as I have work at 6am. However, tomorrow I am hoping to be chasing storms if they come to fruition during the late afternoon/evening/night.

[gottolovethisweather]

Not sure how many of you in here have seen this post from Vorticity0123 over in the main MOD thread but a lot of it is of relevance to the discussion at hand in here too, so do take a look. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83676-model-output-discussion-1st-august-00z/?p=3245022

[Rain123]

Looks like the most active area of rain will just clip the west of the UK.

[Chris K]

Looks like the most active area of rain will just clip the west of the UK.

 

Seems to me the split is occurring, although I will wait and see what happens when it reaches our shores. I think the activity over the channel islands will slowly creep into C/S/E England. The W Country forecast earlier mentioned a possible split with us (unfortunately) staying thunder free between 2 clusters of showers. However, tomorrow afternoon further potential storms moving in may be a bit more potent, albeit still hit and miss.

 

With elevated storms, they will generally follow the direction of the winds aloft. These were modeled to be N/NE until around 0000hrs, with it then starting to shift to direct N, slight NW. If activity keeps up I would say the regions say roughly between Swindon-London have the best chances of seeing something. As ever though, it's a nowcast job.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Chris K

[Rustynailer]

I have just been on to Afton Down. I could here the rumbles and see the pink tops of the storms. The sea is flat but wind blown.

Back at home and I can clearly here rumbling from the South now.

The wind has become blustery, here on and off.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Rustynailer

[Southern Storm]

Hi all, I'm on the sea front in Southbourne (bournemouth) I'm seeing the first flashes on the horizon looking directly south, also heard a very faint rumble, the storm must be elevated to be able to see it from here.

Good luck to all tonight.

Hopefully I will have some pictures to share later!

[Evening thunder]

It's surprising how far you can hear thunder at least over the sea, Most places I look say 10-12 miles max but I have definitely heard distant rumbles from much further on several occasions, up to at least 30-40 miles. I even heard something that sounded like very distant thunder earlier though even I think that may be too far. 

 

It seems to me the storms in west Brittany are moving NNW and the storms SE of Jersey are moving NNE.. lol

 

Edit: went outside for a couple mins and saw a bright meteor through the high cloud to the SE, for a split second I almost thought it was lightning.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Luke Best]

It's surprising how far you can hear thunder at least over the sea, Most places I look say 10-12 miles max but I have definitely heard distant rumbles from much further on several occasions, up to at least 30-40 miles. I even heard something that sounded like very distant thunder earlier though even I think that may be too far. 

 

It seems to me the storms in west Brittany are moving NNW and the storms SE of Jersey are moving NNE.. lol

 

Edit: went outside for a couple mins and saw a bright meteor through the high cloud to the SE, for a split second I almost thought it was lightning.

I'm in Bournemouth and have been able to see flashes from my garden for the last 45 mins or so.  Heard a couple of rumbles of thunder too and the lightning was only just north of the Cherbourg penisular.  Funny you should say that as last month I was sure I could hear thunder late one evening from storms in the west London area but as you say, all sources suggest 10-12 miles max.

 

EDIT:  PLUS.....say the most amazing shooting star with a trail that stayed in the sky (like a contrail) for a full 10 seconds!

Edited August 12, 2015 by Luke Best

[Evening thunder]

Quite remarkable, saw a strike on Blitzortung several minutes ago from the cell way south of Bournemouth, calculated the distance from here (around 70 miles!!) and therefore the time until thunder would be heard, went outside and at that time there was indeed a very faint rumble that definitely sounded like distant thunder!

 

Maybe a coincidence but other times I've heard that sound it's been distant thunder. I do live in a quiet area of countryside and may not have noticed if not listening for it.

 

 

I'm in Bournemouth and have been able to see flashes from my garden for the last 45 mins or so.  Heard a couple of rumbles of thunder too and the lightning was only just north of the Cherbourg penisular.  Funny you should say that as last month I was sure I could hear thunder late one evening from storms in the west London area but as you say, all sources suggest 10-12 miles max.

 

EDIT:  PLUS.....say the most amazing shooting star with a trail that stayed in the sky (like a contrail) for a full 10 seconds!

 

Yeah it's odd, I've heard it enough before to know I can hear thunder from at least 30-40 miles in the right conditions.. maybe they mean the characteristic rumbling rather than a distant low faint rumble that many people wouldn't realise was thunder.. it's something that confuses me..

 

Maybe the elevated storms and warm air over the sea creating a low level inversion in this set up helps 'bounce'/deflect soundwaves to further distances.

In fact I have heard inversions deflect sound-waves downwards towards the ground, whereas normal temp profiles deflect them upwards so maybe that explains it to some extent?

 

Maybe I should go outside to watch for meteors more..

Edited August 12, 2015 by Evening thunder

[chionomaniac]

That really is a beast of a multicell system off the coast of Brest

 

 

[stevofunnelcl]

Storms are taking their time, but multiple areas of storms out there

Southern Bay of Biscay has recently exploded with lightning strikes, so that could be another round for some of us, later tomorrow

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I'm in Bournemouth and have been able to see flashes from my garden for the last 45 mins or so. Heard a couple of rumbles of thunder too and the lightning was only just north of the Cherbourg penisular. Funny you should say that as last month I was sure I could hear thunder late one evening from storms in the west London area but as you say, all sources suggest 10-12 miles max.

EDIT: PLUS.....say the most amazing shooting star with a trail that stayed in the sky (like a contrail) for a full 10 seconds!

I dispute those sources at times, especially in these situations with elevated storms. With the sound of thunder travelling across open water for miles, I'd say you could clearly hear the thunder from 20 odd miles at least with a peaceful surrounding.

OMG, it's absolutely exploded over the BoB and W France!!!!!!

Edited August 12, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Daniel*]

Looks like a slow burner to me those 'hammerheads' west of Brest look to be tracking towards Cork, Ireland?

[Southern Storm]

I'm in Bournemouth and have been able to see flashes from my garden for the last 45 mins or so.  Heard a couple of rumbles of thunder too and the lightning was only just north of the Cherbourg penisular.  Funny you should say that as last month I was sure I could hear thunder late one evening from storms in the west London area but as you say, all sources suggest 10-12 miles max.

 

EDIT:  PLUS.....say the most amazing shooting star with a trail that stayed in the sky (like a contrail) for a full 10 seconds!

yes I heard it, but someone on here said it was not thunder, I know thunder when I hear it and it most definitely was!

Anyway I'm still in Southbourne but everything has stopped.

[alexisj9]

I'm sure I can hear some very distant thunder, my daughter too, but there is nothing anywhere near us yet. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Had a great night out in a southern French town Sanary Sur Mer - now retiring to bed and catching up on the development of your storms (yes I'm officially addicted) but actually it's just because wine always keeps me awake - for a bit!

Sounds like the ideal situation to me - watching a storm slowly approach - especially from over a large body of water. Sorry to hear most of you will be seeing action after daybreak (or maybe not) but that kind of makes me feel better :-)

Sorry but it does!! Anyway - wish you all the best with developments. We should be getting something on Friday morning - and have an awesome view from the terrace to the west (where I thing they will come from) - so let's see what happens!

Gotta get ready for a wedding tomorrow but good luck everyone and enjoy the show (as and where possible!)

[Rain123]

The storm south of poole looks to be losing intensity. 

[Wivenswold]

My friend in Battle has just text to say that he can hear rumbles from the Cell south of Brighton. So it's certainly travelling. 

[Evening thunder]

On this page related to the Buncefield oil depot blast which was apparently heard over 200 miles away in Holland.. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4521232.stm there is the quote: 

 

During World War II there were frequent tales of Londoners hearing bombings in France and residents in Dover hearing gun fire from across the Channel.

"It's quite possible as it's not unusual at all to hear things 30 or 40 miles away," says Mr Wilton.

 

 

You also get reports hearing cannons at over 50 miles.

 

Therefore I don't see why you couldn't hear thunder from at least 30-40 miles in the right conditions, especially from positive strikes.

[Thunderbolt_]

I've been busy most of the evening, so I haven't really had a chance to have a look at the models until now. We really aren't doing bad so far, so it could be a very interesting night for you southerners.

 

Good luck!

 

[Fitzwis]

Live report and synoptic analogy from Jersey's SW Coast summed up in one word ... explosive!

Edited August 12, 2015 by Fitzwis

[Chris K]

I've been busy most of the evening, so I haven't really had a chance to have a look at the models until now. We really aren't doing bad so far, so it could be a very interesting night for you southerners.

 

Good luck!

 

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It's that massive empty gap that is annoying me because I know where it's heading...

[Condor Vitesse]

Live report and synoptic analogy from Jersey's SW Coast summed up in one word ... explosive!

Looks like you in a Sweet spot. I remember living in Guernsey and some of the storms were insane 

[dusk]

I'm liking the way some of the cells are tracking.

 

Fingers crossed that The Channel doesn't dilute them before they're feet dry on the South coast

[gottolovethisweather]

Live report and synoptic analogy from Jersey's SW Coast summed up in one word ... explosive!

 

John Hammond just mentioned that the Channel Isles were getting plenty of action too, sounds fascinating for sure, keep the reports coming.