Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[Thunderbolt_]

hints maybe of something elevated tomorrow morning across the west country, as a frontal wave pushes through SW to NE in conjunction with some modest mid level instability with some moist warm air in the mix (moderate theta-e values)....In all likely hood, it'll be dynamic as opposed to convective rainfall, but the odd clap of thunder or embedded cell can't be ruled out IMHO

 

I hope so AJ! A bit of morning thunder would be a brilliant way to kick off my 18th birthday.

 

[Stuart]

well tomorrow looking not to bad here there a risk   but you Know my luck I will miss out

[Chris K]

Waiting to see how things pan out this week, with low pressure currently modeled to move up from the South as we head into mid-week on-wards, bringing increasingly warmer, humid air with it.

 

How far East/West this gets shunted will change who has the best chances of seeing some thundery activity. Once again it looks borderline but SE corner looks best bet at the moment. Also depends on whether the warm front shown on the latest fax charts just creates a cloudy mess.

[legritter]

Well certainly a mixed bag of weather this week coming .

tomorrow s west england along with central parts seeing some thundery outbreaks .

then later this week southern counties and especially wales and west country look like good areas to be ,but then the action seems to move further east but  depending on how much cooler air is kept separared to the west depends on whether eastern counties become the more favoured areas again .

we could do with two or more pushes so that we all get a good crash bang wollop ,And night time prefered please Mother nature cheers .

[Panayiotis]

My interest first lies in tonight's potential as a cold front sweeps in from the SW moving NE...EURO4 and GFS shows this perfectly:

Some disagreements with the HIRLAM AND NMM (both not showing much in the way of PPN), however the MetO seem to agree...

[Rain123]

Estofex are only saying the far west are in for a chance tonight.

[A.J]

Estofex are only saying the far west are in for a chance tonight.

bare in mind, that forecast is nearly 20 hours old....worth taking with a pinch of salt

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

They reckoning midnight for storms here... Nice big booming night ones!

Got a room with a view over the pool area and coincidentally a great view of the sky too :-)

Will be ready to catch some lightning tonight if all goes to plan - also looks like we're in for storm fun on Tuesday, Thursday and possibly Friday as well!

Gotta love the French climate... ;-)

[William Grimsley]

I'm back! It looks like a very wet and potentially thundery night for us south westerners tonight, it's quite surprising that there aren't more posts. I shall have to wait and see what happens.

Edited August 9, 2015 by William Grimsley

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

They reckoning midnight for storms here... Nice big booming night ones!

Got a room with a view over the pool area and coincidentally a great view of the sky too :-)

Will be ready to catch some lightning tonight if all goes to plan - also looks like we're in for storm fun on Tuesday, Thursday and possibly Friday as well!

Gotta love the French climate... ;-)

Different beast the old French humiditè! My ideal climate by a mile.

Back in the UK and seems like I've timed it well for possible storms tomorrow and further into the week.

[Raidan]

It's a very low risk William hence not a lot of posts,I am keeping one eye on things but not expecting anything to be honest.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Heavy rain Yeah.. Thunderstorms? Mmmmmm risk 20% max! Embedded crap as ever.. Like to be proved wrong though

Edited August 9, 2015 by Surrey

[William Grimsley]

I'm not suggesting any thunderstorms, just hopefully some thunder embedded in the rain band. The euro4 and BBC/Met Office charts take the heaviest precipitation over my area so we'll have to see!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Nothing here yet - and by the looks of it a bust for the UK too :-(

Still, netweather suggesting 70+ percent chance of a storm for us in the next two hours, so not giving up hope just yet!

Might not be a big one but a good starter for the week... Camera ready!

Edited August 9, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Nick F]

CONVECTIVE / STORM OUTLOOK MONDAY 10TH AUGUST

 

 

Valid: 10/08/2015 00z to 11/08/2015 00z

 

Synopsis

A broad cyclonic southwesterly flow covers NW Europe on Monday, with a southwesterly jet stream crossing the UK. A waving cold front lies SW to NE from Devon to roughly The Wash at noon, before the front moves east to clear Kent around midnight. Further west, shortwave upper trough and occlusion moves east across Ireland and then northern UK during the afternoon.

 

... IRELAND, N. IRELAND, SCOTLAND ...

 

Sharpening shortwave upper trough, visible on WV imagery over the Atlantic west of Ireland Sunday evening, will cross the above areas during Monday ... steepening lapse rates and creating forcing for ascent which will support heavy showers or thunderstorms. 40-50 knts of deep-layer shear and strong SWly upper flow will promote storm organisation with a risk of hail, gusty winds and intense downpours leading to localised flooding. There is a small chance of funnel clouds or even brief weak tornadoes forming in stronger storm updrafts, particularly as surface winds back ahead of approaching shortwave increasing low-level shear.

 

... WALES, S ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, N and E ENGLAND ...

 

Further south, a warm and humid airmass characterised by theta-w values of 16C will become increasingly unstable as dry air incursion associated with the SWly jet over-runs this moisture-rich airmass combined with forcing for ascent increasing with falling heights and lift along waving frontal zone. So embedded convection is likely in the rainfall spreading NE along the frontal zone with a risk of torrential downpours accompanied by isolated thunder across the above areas. Localised flooding will be the main threat along the frontal zone. Risk of thunder will initially be across SW England/Wales in the morning, before transferring towards N and E England in the afternoon.

[dusk]

Absolutely nothing on the radar at the mo.......

[Chris K]

Absolutely nothing on the radar at the mo.......

Going by the met office, there isn't meant to be until 4-5am for the SW approaches...moving NE through the morning. Most likely that heavy rainfall will be the talking point and not t&l.

[Mesoscale]

Good evening everyone, the BBC still going for storms tonight in the Southwest, here is hoping that at least someone gets a storm tonight! 

[Rain123]

Something appears to be coming off the coast of cornwall.No lightning at the mo.

Edited August 10, 2015 by Rain123

[1976]

Yes, at Hayle in tent (nr lands end) absolutely chucking in down and loud thunder / lightning. Scary stuff esp when in tent !!!

[William Grimsley]

Well, no thunderstorms here last night but that's some pretty heavy rain coming in. I'm about to drive in that to work shortly. It might just miss me but we'll see about that one. Still only thunder present about 1 hour ago, nothing recent.

Edited August 10, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Raidan]

Hoping I get to work before that rain arrives don't want to spend my first day back after a two week break soaked.Only a few sferics detected from a few hours ago nothing new since.meto still thinks a chance of t&l here and in the week will shall see.

[Speedway Slider]

That looks like Beast of a rain storm in Cornwall (on rain alarm) anyway.. No sferics, but that could mean any present could be C to C or IC?

Yes?

[Bolt from the Blue]

Sferics showing up just south of Swansea

[liamcymro]

Typical that storm is further west from Cardiff - so we're missing out here. Some torrential rain this morning down in the Bay, still raining pretty hard. Feeling mild and muggy.