Autumn 2015

[cheeky_monkey]

Unfortunately I have never witnessed it. Given that the London area saw some I was pretty unlucky.

 

According to this, most notably during the Little Ice Age, October snow in the south was commoner than some might think.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-history;sess=

 

I hope it becomes more common again, the closest I've come to seeing it was a few minutes of falling snow in late October 2012 that rapidly turned to sleet and then rain. The earliest I have seen settling snow (that I remember at least) just scraped its way into Autumn 2010 on the 30th November, which probably sounds ludicrous to some people. I hate being in the south east sometimes.

There was snow in Essex in the first week of November 1980 and again in 1985 I think..and also there was quite a bit around the 20th November 1988 if memory serves me right?

[Relativistic]

There was snow in Essex in the first week of November 1980 and again in 1985 I think..and also there was quite a bit around the 20th November 1988 if memory serves me right?

 

Unfortunately I wasn't around then to experience it.

[Dancerwithwings]

I know we'll probably never experience it again, but settling snow in October again would be cool...

Never say Never http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2370&mode=0&carte=1&run=0

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

That'll do.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Never say Never http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2370&mode=0&carte=1&run=0

 

 

 

Cheeky !!

[cheeky_monkey]

Never say Never http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2370&mode=0&carte=1&run=0

 

 

I predict this could be the coldest chart of the 2015/16 Autumn/winter season

[Bradowl]

There was snow in Essex in the first week of November 1980 and again in 1985 I think..and also there was quite a bit around the 20th November 1988 if memory serves me right?

 

I can remember us around here in South Yorks having settling Snow in early hours of November 1st in I think 1987 or 88, woke up to good covering but had melted by lunch time.

[IanR]

I am expecting a cool autumn after a cool summer,  and a much colder winter than the recent ones,  you know when you just get that feeling that you know you are going to be right  

 

i had a feeling this summer would be a 'meh' one too, but its easy to say that now we are actually having a 'meh' one and for the forseeable

 

after the warm switch was flicked on from july 2013 which lasted all all through 2014, the switched was flicked back to cool setting in 2015,  i think we are going to  see a run of more average and below average from now on, with the odd above,  a bit of a reversal , nothing scientific,  i will leave that to the more enlightend and knowledgeable ,  its just a hinch,   the cooler atlantic may be the reason

[Costa Del Fal]

I seriously think this cool spell could last some years if this is the negative AMO at play. Dreadful news if so.

Edited July 23, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Hocus Pocus]

Just been to the met office seasonal forecasting ensembles and they are offering near to above average temperatures:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

We have to bear in mind cfs v2 have floundered recently and they were way out with June cet as it turned out to be near enough close to normal with the second half being better than the first half. Cfs v2 went for a significantly colder than average June on the other hand.

That would be the form horse but even the long range projections by the Met chop and change quite quickly. My advice take all long range models with a pinch of salt. Edited July 24, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Autumn appears to have started in the South already

[Polar Maritime]

And the North a few weeks back.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

And the North a few weeks back.

 

Northerners deserve it !!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Unless it appears almost undeniable that below average temperatures seem likely it seems the met office always predict average to above average temperatures by default in their long range forcasts, especially months in advance. They could be right of course but it seems that if they're not sure they will always tout average to above and to be honest when average to above seasons have been the form horse for most of the last three decades it probably seems a safer bet on their part so who could blame them, especially as they're obliged to make some prediction and can't simply state uncertainty even if that's what they thought as they must quite often, as they would lose funding if they stated that all the time and as a consequence be unable to advance the tools necessary to improve the science, putting the whole ambition of more accurate long range forecasting behind. Especially with such demand from businesses and the public to know what the weather's going to be like in x amount of time. I doubt they're that confident though of anything at this stage so if like me your hoping for a below average Autumn and hoping even more for a below average Winter there's still plenty of hope with over a month until the start of Autumn and over 4 months until the end of Autumn and start of Winter no matter what they say at this stage.

Note I'm not trying to criticise the met office as such and I don't doubt they're one of the best if not the best weather forecasters in the world. All's I'm saying is we all know long range forecasting is not an exact science so all should be taken with a pinch of salt at this early stage and I guess I'm just trying to convince myself just as much as anyone else when the met office make a seasonal prediction of above average temperatures, not to be despondent more than a month in advance of the 3 month season they're trying to predict. But then again the weather will be what the weather will be and it's simply out of our hands. Only God or the great creative force of the universe, whatever you want to call it knows for certain and whatever he or it has decided should be fine and good with me or anyone else and I'm really being silly to hope for things I have no control over.

Edited July 24, 2015 by WALSALL SNOW

[IanR]

That would be the form horse but even the long range projections by the Met chop and change quite quickly. My advice take all long range models with a pinch of salt.

 the meto seem to have a warm bias and are proved wrong on occasions.  not buying it  , didnt they predict a warm summer? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Something tells me that this cold Atlantic may have quite an effect on autumn. I wonder if the large contrast between the SSTs and the atmosphere would favour a very stormy and potentially very wet autumn?

 

It also wouldn't surprise me if autumn was very windy, because this whole year has already been pretty windy, so a very windy autumn wouldn't seem out of place...

 

Most likely, as high pressure all times of the year near the UK seems very tricky to get

[feb1991blizzard]

Something tells me that this cold Atlantic may have quite an effect on autumn. I wonder if the large contrast between the SSTs and the atmosphere would favour a very stormy and potentially very wet autumn?

 

It also wouldn't surprise me if autumn was very windy, because this whole year has already been pretty windy, so a very windy autumn wouldn't seem out of place...

 

To be honest it wouldn't surprise me if both Autumn and winter were Atlantic dominated again, I still think our best chance of blocking will come towards the turn of the decade with low solar activity, surely we will get a combination of +ENSO, -QBO, minimum solar activity combination at some point, that said it wouldn't surprise me if we get a short late Autumn / Early winter period of blocking this year, its just very unlikely that everything will fall into place regarding very cold air being over the continent being drawn this way, its always a long shot, 1995, 2010, 1993 being examples though. its all about timing.

[NUT]

I've noticed (in the past i've put it down to dry spells during July but can't use that excuse this year) but i've noticed that some leaves are starting to turn red and yellow. Not much but Autumn really not too far away now

[fazer76]

Something tells me that this cold Atlantic may have quite an effect on autumn. I wonder if the large contrast between the SSTs and the atmosphere would favour a very stormy and potentially very wet autumn?

 

It also wouldn't surprise me if autumn was very windy, because this whole year has already been pretty windy, so a very windy autumn wouldn't seem out of place...

Or maybe a warmer more mellow period could even things out, perhaps high pressure dominating? Plenty to talk about and to think we had near on 100F on our shores only a few weeks ago, even if temporarily, latest forecasts paint a very different picture indeed. Anything that far out is purely debatable only with a bit of science thrown in of course. Some guesswork too ;-)

[Stormyking]

I have started to get a bit of an Autumn vibe, but am not ready too lose the warmth for a while yet

 

My thoughts on this Autumn

 

September: I'm going for a warm month, with a couple of plume events, especially first half, towards the 2nd part, I reckon we will see the first Atlantic Autumn Low, before high pressure builds behind, leaving the very end of the Month dry, settled and sunny.

 

October, I am expecting a reasonably dry Month, with high pressure close to us or over us for the first part, Temperatures around the Mid to High teens, 2nd half, remaining fairly dry to start with, then turning somewhat unsettled from the Atlantic, with rain, strong winds and even coastal surface based showers/thunderstorms.

 

November: Starting unsettled with a similar pattern, but settling down some crisp sunny days along with frost nights and mist and fog sort of theme. Right at the end of the month i'm going for the first wintry spell, with sleety snowy stuff for parts of the UK

[Polar Maritime]

Certainly feels like it today.

[sundog]

feels like autumn here today aswell thats for sure. Dull and wet wlth a current temp of 12.3c.

[fazer76]

Going for a mild if not warm start to the season, sudden big switch to more unsettled and at times very cool spell with the first overnight widespread frosts before another very mild spell into early part of November. Stormy conditions at times thereafter.

[hillbilly]

It did hit 15 deg this morning in the sunshine but with a low of 7 deg this morning and currently wet and 13 deg it IS Autumn !!

[fazer76]

Not sure why, get a sneaky feeling some record warmth may be recorded for a brief period of time. You heard it here first.