Autumn 2015

[IanR]

Autumn looks like starting settled and sunny before turning very stormy come November, yup winter 2015-2016 is already over  It is looking like a mild, stormy winter, if this guy is on the ball.     http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

interesting, although its the outcome that I would want

[Summer Sun]

Autumn looks like starting settled and sunny before turning very stormy come November, yup winter 2015-2016 is already over  It is looking like a mild, stormy winter, if this guy is on the ball.     http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

 

Simon Keeling's thoughts for September and October

 

*September*

 

Higher than normal pressure is expected to be the dominant weather pattern through September. Indications are that this will tend to be situated to the east of the country. Conditions are expected to be drier than normal, probably more so later in the month. Temperatures are also likely to be above normal for the time of year, although not by much. Later on in the month we expect the risk of air frosts to increase and it may be that periods of rain affect Scotland and Ireland from time to time.

*October*

 

A reversal in conditions in October as low pressure deepens and becomes a predominant feature. Strong winds and heavy rain are likely, especially in more central and southern parts of the country where the jet stream will be strongest. Temperatures will be near normal overall. whilst rainfall totals as a month will be close to normal, although tending to be focused in the second half of the month. Probably drier in Scotland, although still rain to come here.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20150717

[Don]

Autumn looks like starting settled and sunny before turning very stormy come November, yup winter 2015-2016 is already over  It is looking like a mild, stormy winter, if this guy is on the ball.     http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

 

Not necessarily, look at Autumn 2009.  November was very mild and very stormy and this continued into the 1st part of December.  The rest is history!

[summer blizzard]

Too early to write off winter.

[reef]

..especially as this thread is for Autumn discussion.

[lassie23]

Simon Keeling's thoughts for September and October

 

*September*

 

Higher than normal pressure is expected to be the dominant weather pattern through September. Indications are that this will tend to be situated to the east of the country. Conditions are expected to be drier than normal, probably more so later in the month. Temperatures are also likely to be above normal for the time of year, although not by much. Later on in the month we expect the risk of air frosts to increase and it may be that periods of rain affect Scotland and Ireland from time to time.

*October*

 

A reversal in conditions in October as low pressure deepens and becomes a predominant feature. Strong winds and heavy rain are likely, especially in more central and southern parts of the country where the jet stream will be strongest. Temperatures will be near normal overall. whilst rainfall totals as a month will be close to normal, although tending to be focused in the second half of the month. Probably drier in Scotland, although still rain to come here.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20150717

Differs somewhat to his autumn outlook video but the general theme is the same, a settled start to autumn, but gradually getting more and more unsettled.

 

Not necessarily, look at Autumn 2009.  November was very mild and very stormy and this continued into the 1st part of December.  The rest is history!

I can't remember autumn 2009,  but that is good to hear.

 

Too early to write off winter.

It is just a guide using weather analogues and anything can happen, although he is advising his private clients to prepare for a possible stormy one.

Edited August 9, 2015 by lassie23

[Summer Sun]

Differs somewhat to his autumn outlook video but the general theme is the same, a settled start to autumn, but gradually getting more and more unsettled.

 

I can't remember autumn 2009,  but that is good to hear.

 

It is just a guide using weather analogues and anything can happen, although he is advising his private clients to prepare for a possible stormy one.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2009/autumn

[lassie23]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2009/autumn

Thanks Summer Sun  Wonder if the sea surface temps will change much by October.

[Dancerwithwings]

Hi all, in looking up catch up TV i came across this  (What's Wrong with Our Weather?) can't believe i missed it

I found it interesting more so the second half, with the UK could be in for more cold winters        (Catch up 03/08 BBC FOUR)

Physicist Dr Helen Czerski and meteorologist John Hammond make sense of Britain's extreme weather and discover that recent extreme winters are connected by the jet stream.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04b763n/horizon-20132014-12-whats-wrong-with-our-weather

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Hi all, in looking up catch up TV i came across this  (What's Wrong with Our Weather?) can't believe i missed it

I found it interesting more so the second half, with the UK could be in for more cold winters        (Catch up 03/08 BBC FOUR)

Physicist Dr Helen Czerski and meteorologist John Hammond make sense of Britain's extreme weather and discover that recent extreme winters are connected by the jet stream.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04b763n/horizon-20132014-12-whats-wrong-with-our-weather

 

Good article that

[DAVID SNOW]

Hi all, in looking up catch up TV i came across this  (What's Wrong with Our Weather?) can't believe i missed it

I found it interesting more so the second half, with the UK could be in for more cold winters        (Catch up 03/08 BBC FOUR)

Physicist Dr Helen Czerski and meteorologist John Hammond make sense of Britain's extreme weather and discover that recent extreme winters are connected by the jet stream.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04b763n/horizon-20132014-12-whats-wrong-with-our-weather

 

Shame solar activity was only mentioned for 3 seconds right at the very end

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seeing as it looks like the Arctic sea ice coverage will be quite small this year, I had a look at composites for Autumns with low sea ice (based on detrended September minimum sea ice extent).

 

Here they are:

 

.......... ..........September.......... .......... .......... ........... October .......... .......... .......... ........... November

  

 

So, a cool, northwesterly type September, followed by a dry, settled October then a wet unsettled November.

 

 

If we look at years that also have declining and low solar activity...

 

.......... ..........September.......... .......... .......... ........... October .......... .......... .......... ........... November

  

 

A similar picture, but a much stronger signal. September looks more settled, but still with tendency for northerly air streams, October looks very settled, possibly leading to frosty nights and mild days, while November looks cool and wet with a strong signal for northern blocking.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Have noticed some leaves are changing colour already. Also when in Scotland a couple of weeks back I noticed some leaves had started changing colour there. It's very few mind but perhaps a sign that Autumn is slowly coming. Actually the leaves on my silver birch tree in my garden are mostly yellow already.

Edited August 13, 2015 by WALSALL SNOW

[Relativistic]

I know Autumn isn't a million miles away now that the house spiders are starting to emerge.

[Bogman]

Don't get me wrong, this part of the country has done well this summer - long gloriously sunny summer days that you remember as a kid, but not excessively hot, just about right, that have stretched on for months, with the odd bonus storm chucked in for good measure.

 

BUT

 

Today has been a taster of what is to come, a reminder that the turn of season is just around the corner, and I for one, will look forward to this cycle.

This mornings mist, driving to work with the lights on, and this afternoons mist and merk, as the afternoon wears on.

 

Love summer, but now had enough.

Here's to being all cosy at home, whilst the wind and rain lashes the windows, and thoughts turn towards frosty mornings and foggy days.

 

Sometimes I think I'm blessed to live in this isle that has seasons.

[Polar Maritime]

Love summer, but now had enough.

Here's to being all cosy at home, whilst the wind and rain lashes the windows, and thoughts turn towards frosty mornings and foggy days.

 

Sometimes I think I'm blessed to live in this isle that has seasons.

 

Yes my sentiments to, I'm looking forward to Autumn now and the slow build up to the 'mad season'..

[cheeky_monkey]

Yes my sentiments to, I'm looking forward to Autumn now and the slow build up to the 'mad season'..

 

Don't get me wrong, this part of the country has done well this summer - long gloriously sunny summer days that you remember as a kid, but not excessively hot, just about right, that have stretched on for months, with the odd bonus storm chucked in for good measure.

 

BUT

 

Today has been a taster of what is to come, a reminder that the turn of season is just around the corner, and I for one, will look forward to this cycle.

This mornings mist, driving to work with the lights on, and this afternoons mist and merk, as the afternoon wears on.

 

Love summer, but now had enough.

Here's to being all cosy at home, whilst the wind and rain lashes the windows, and thoughts turn towards frosty mornings and foggy days.

 

Sometimes I think I'm blessed to live in this isle that has seasons.

The UK has what I would term merging seasons..where there is a slow transition from one season to another..i love Canadian seasons where they crash from one to another in matter of days.

[AderynCoch]

Sometimes I think I'm blessed to live in this isle that has seasons.

What isle is that? Hokkaido?

[Bogman]

I did say sometimes.

[damianslaw]

Looking like a mainly dry autumn according to this:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Which would suit me right down to the ground.

 

 

Much of the rest of the northern hemisphere programmed to be appreciably above average, with only our little island in a sea of slightly below average temps. The cold SST values over NE atlantic don't look like repenting. Polar maritime/returning polar maritime airstream with blocking to the NE perhaps the dominant pattern for the season...

[cheese]

Much of the rest of the northern hemisphere programmed to be appreciably above average, with only our little island in a sea of slightly below average temps. The cold SST values over NE atlantic don't look like repenting. Polar maritime/returning polar maritime airstream with blocking to the NE perhaps the dominant pattern for the season...

We must be looking at different maps - I see the UK as slightly above average.

 

[reef]

We must be looking at different maps - I see the UK as slightly above average.

 

Its pretty much bang on average when you look at it. A mixture of green and magnolia. -0.5C to +0.5C compared to the mean.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Have noticed some leaves are changing colour already. Also when in Scotland a couple of weeks back I noticed some leaves had started changing colour there. It's very few mind but perhaps a sign that Autumn is slowly coming. Actually the leaves on my silver birch tree in my garden are mostly yellow already.

 

Noticed it too this weekend. Seems a bit early??

[Gael_Force]

Much of the rest of the northern hemisphere programmed to be appreciably above average, with only our little island in a sea of slightly below average temps. The cold SST values over NE atlantic don't look like repenting. Polar maritime/returning polar maritime airstream with blocking to the NE perhaps the dominant pattern for the season...

I see the UKMO model is intensifying the cold SST anomaly by winter time. Sea will cool anyway but that's a big anomaly from normal winter condition.

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Not long now until the weather presenters start telling us about frosts in the 'remote glens of Scotland' 

 

Meanwhile, El Nino > http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/fee32445-15c0-4d2c-9423-1a1281c8fd37