Autumn 2015

[damianslaw]

The significantly below average SST values over NE atlantic quite likely to produce a strong thermal temp gradient over the atlantic and hence a strong Jetstream - key question will the UK sit on the cold or warm side of the boundary... if current patterns persist then it will be firmly on the cold side.. but you would expect some strong warm and cold sector interaction - potentially stormy then.. Just some initial thoughts based on current state of SST values.

[gsteruk]

Not sure we are pointing towards anything decent this winter, mind you, I predicted a decent winter the last 2, what possessed me to do so in 13-14 god only knows but last year most expert expected a decent one so maybe me going mild this year will do the trick, my forecasting has been absolutely diabolical for a good while now!

 

I totally agree with that but if I start a winter thread then I am doing no harm but it will get taken down straight away by you.

Couldn't agree more,I never understand the reaction to winter threads, instead of not reading them people go ballistic if they appear a day before they personally want them to. As forecasting is such an imprecise science I see no harm in people talking about winter in summer if they want to. It's a cardinal sin though it seems

[gsteruk]

That's because there is a season between now and winter, autumn. It's too early to think about winter.

Yes for some, not for others, where's the harm if people want to?

[Carl46Wrexham]

Leaves on some trees definitely on the turn towards red and yellow. Blackberries and conkers growing...that Autumn vibe gets a little stronger with each passing day.

[Mountain Snow]

These cool, damp dull days are making me think towards autumn. Stating to look forward to some wet, windy weather with leaves being stripped from the trees and the becks flooding the fields. Hopefully summer will return soon and banish these thoughts 'till October!

[Wildswimmer Pete]

I've been discussing 1963 on another thread, pointing out that the abysmal summer '63 proceeded to one of the few "Golden Autumns" in my (long) recollection.  Warm, dry and sunny, so much so that PE was held outdoors on my school's playing grounds in just shorts.  August '63 was the pits, with the last weekend seeing torrential rain and bloody freezing.  On the Monday, the first day back to school, cloudless blue sky that mostly lasted during September.

 

Bear in mind this is personal experience and accordingly subjective, and of course location comes into the equation - in my case: Wirral.

[Scorcher]

This year is behaving just how 1972 behaved weather wise and I can't see any sign of a let up really.

 

Looking at the records though it hasn't been nearly as monotonously cool as 1972, particularly in the south. There also wasn't any heatwave to speak of that year- this year even further north many places have had some notable heat, even if it was brief.

[feb1991blizzard]

Some chart this is for September!!!!

 

[simshady]

Some chart this is for September!!!!

 

 

I'm starting my Christmas wishes early

[snowy weather]

what was the winter of 1972 like?

Edited July 30, 2015 by Thunderbolt_
This is not a winter discussion.

[Weather-history]

what was the winter of 1972 like?

1972-73? Nothing particularly special. Some wintry weather mid Feb 73.

[Methuselah]

What, I wonder, will two massive SST anomalies produce? There's an enormous warm anomaly off the Western US/Canada and the persistent cold anomaly in the North Atlantic...A bendy-Wendy jetstream?

[MP-R]

I think it will produce quite a stormy autumn. The large contrast between the SSTs and the atmosphere could create a large disturbance, leading to some pretty deep Atlantic windstorms developing.

That's my theory.

 

I'm wondering if this will be the case but much further south. If SSTs are as low as they are around our shores, let alone further north, the peak of the temperature gradient could well be more in line with France than the UK, so maybe more in the way of southerly tracking lows as the season wares on.

[Guest]

I hope for a extension of summer into September, but with this year's July im not betting on it. I do hope we get a very cold October-November and a 2010 Winter is on my wishlist.

[AderynCoch]

I always have low expectations of autumn but this year please PLEASE PLEASE can we avoid boring dross like October 2014 and November 2011, not merely for sanity's sake but so that cold pool out in the Atlantic doesn't vanish just in time for winter. It's the very least Mother Nature owes us at the moment.

Edited July 30, 2015 by AderynCoch

[damianslaw]

It is a possibility. Let's just hope that if it does turn out a wet, stormy autumn, it doesn't turn out as bad as autumn 2000.

 

Interesting to note the behaviour of low pressure systems these past three months, so many have spiralled in situ just to our NW and crossed to the NE pulling down NW/N airflows, a similar set up in winter would reinforce the cold SST's and it would be a potent polar maritime fest, snow galore for the NW quarter of the country.. quite likely to produce significant cold air advection over mid atlantic and our shores on occasion, warm air advection over central Europe and scandi blocked by a major strong ridge/high pressure over western Russia.

Edited July 30, 2015 by damianslaw

[March Blizzard]

I always have low expectations of autumn but this year please PLEASE PLEASE can we avoid boring dross like October 2014 and November 2011, not merely for sanity's sake but so that cold pool out in the Atlantic doesn't vanish just in time for winter. It's the very least Mother Nature owes us at the moment.

Interesting to note the behaviour of low pressure systems these past three months, so many have spiralled in situ just to our NW and crossed to the NE pulling down NW/N airflows, a similar set up in winter would reinforce the cold SST's and it would be a potent polar maritime fest, snow galore for the NW quarter of the country.. quite likely to produce significant cold air advection over mid atlantic and our shores on occasion, warm air advection over central Europe and scandi blocked by a major strong ridge/high pressure over western Russia.

For our region in particular that North Atlantic cold anomaly could be a significant player, so I'm keen for it to remain or even grow and intensify as Autmumn drags on and winter arrives.

That snowfall in late January this year from a NW airflow was spectacular while it lasted, as was the Boxing Day 2014 fall. This time round, should the low Atlantic SST's remain, we may be on the right side of marginal far more often. A potential snowy "cold zonality" winter on the way?

A very, very early ramp!

Anyway, knowing our luck, that cold pool will disappear by mid November and/or the Northwesterlies will die off. The one time I'd want some weather off the Atlantic we'll probably get a raging beasterly...

...with that being said, I'd take it!

[Guest]

Looking at long-range forecasts and the solar-minimum, I can safely say that we are probably into a windy, cold and wet Autumn.

[Guest]

With this pathetic May-June-July and probably the same for August, I do damn hope we get some snow in October or November, at least a White Christmas or I damn won't be happy.

Edited July 31, 2015 by Guest

[Skullzrulerz]

Looking at long-range forecasts and the solar-minimum, I can safely say that we are probably into a windy, cold and wet Autumn.

Which long range forecasts did you look at?

[damianslaw]

Looking at long-range forecasts and the solar-minimum, I can safely say that we are probably into a windy, cold and wet Autumn.

 

 

Its a long while since we have experienced a cold wet autumn in the main, many wet mild ones, but not cold wet ones, 1993 last occasion. Indeed we've not had many cold autumns since then neither, cold months such as Nov 2010, cold spells such as late Oct 2008, a number of slightly below average/near average months, most especially 1994, 1996, 1998, 2003, 2012, but no especially cold season overall. September in the last 20 years has often been an extension of summer.. when was the last chilly wet September? 1995?

[Don]

when was the last chilly wet September? 1995?

 

September 1995 wasn't particularly chilly overall with a CET of 13.7C, 0.1C above the 61-90 average.  Perhaps September 1994?  Also, after a warm start, September 2012 was colder than average overall with a CET of 13C.  However, I'm not sure it was particularly wet.

Edited July 31, 2015 by Don

[Weather-history]

September 1995 wasn't particularly chilly overall with a CET of 13.7C, 0.1C above the 61-90 average.  Perhaps September 1994?  Also, after a warm start, September 2012 was colder than average overall with a CET of 13C.  However, I'm not sure it was particularly wet.

September 1994 was on the cool side and fairly wet. It's the last sub 13C September CET.

[Relativistic]

Its a long while since we have experienced a cold wet autumn in the main, many wet mild ones, but not cold wet ones, 1993 last occasion. Indeed we've not had many cold autumns since then neither, cold months such as Nov 2010, cold spells such as late Oct 2008, a number of slightly below average/near average months, most especially 1994, 1996, 1998, 2003, 2012, but no especially cold season overall. September in the last 20 years has often been an extension of summer.. when was the last chilly wet September? 1995?

September 2012 had a -0.6C anomaly against the 61-90 average. I do recall however that its first week was hot and sunny, so it did well to end up with that negative anomaly.

Edited August 1, 2015 by 22nov10blast

[snowy weather]

I have a question which may seem very stupid because I am a novice when it comes to forecasting so go easy

I have read reports that the North Atlantic is five degrees below average for this time of year.

Surely that would mean a very cold autumn and freezing winter? 

Or is this not the case?