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Autumn 2015

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Well we are about halfway through the meteorological summer and autumn is closing in. Last autumn had one of the driest Septembers on record and the warmest Halloween on record.

What will autumn 2015 bring? A sunny autumn? I wouldn't mind a dry and sunny autumn with some late season plumes and some night time thunderstorms.

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Cold clear nights,frosty,misty and some fog. Can't beat a good cold Autumn.

 

But it will probably end up being wet, mild and windy as usual.

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Hopefully September 1919, Late Oct 2008 and Nov 2010, an early belting would go down just lovely.

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What I would like:

September - Cool and wet

October - Warm and dry

November - Close to average with a brief early taste of Winter.

Reality:

September - An extension of Summer being much warmer and drier than average.

October - Average to above average temperatures and wetter than normal.

November - Mild and damp

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What I think..

El Nino gives a small bias to warmer than average. Atlantic SST's strongly suggest a strong thermal gradient once the polar vortex forms and strengthens.

I suspect therefore that November will be warm and wet and stormy. August-October I'd imagine will be westerly but without the polar vortex, probably relatively dry and close to average.

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What I hope..

September - Don't care as much but I have a bias to cool and wet.

October - 2012 or 2007, cool and wet.

November - 2005 or 2010. Cold and dry and snowy.

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Cool nights and sunshine are important during September and October to get the best Autumn colours.

 

Last Autumn was a vile, disgusting disaster and it is hard to imagine how this years could be any worse but you never can tell these days.

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Hopefully September 1919, Late Oct 2008 and Nov 2010, an early belting would go down just lovely.

 

James Madden is already talking about a 'cold and traditional November' confidence for this is 'considerably high'

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Since we had the warmest Halloween on Record, it has got me thinking about other events that happen in the autumn like Bonfire Night and Remembrance Sunday-i wonder if we will see any of those records fall in the future 

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Anything that extends the summer season into Autumn is welcome by me, whether its abundant sunshine or above average warmth. Cant be doing with the onset of grim cold and wet conditions several months before winter starts properly.

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James Madden is already talking about a 'cold and traditional November' confidence for this is 'considerably high'

Yes! I've seen that...................2016 :laugh:

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September is going to be warm and sunny with temperatures regularly in the mid 20's. We will see out first snow fall in October and there will be blizzardy blizzards in November. But not the 5th, the weather is always the same on the 5th, cool and clear. The wintry October/ November will lead us into the start of the mini ice age with temperatures regulary below -2 at night. You have been warned! :D

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James Madden is already talking about a 'cold and traditional November' confidence for this is 'considerably high'

 

God knows how confidence can be high for something far away, I suspect another winter dominated by the Atlantic and that will continue until we get rid of that PDO ridge that's dogged us for 2 years but confidence cannot be high for something so far away, I think we will get some corkers once that solar activity drops to the levels of the little ice age like its predicted to do, a solar min, -QBO el nino will be tasty towards end of this decade.

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I'm sure when he releases he's super duper forecast the cold anomalies in the North Atlantic will come into play when he's wintry Autumn starts.

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We're in a neutral QBO now trending positive.

 

Yes PJ, I was talking later in the decade mate, guaranteed +QBO this winter.

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Nothing worse than wishing your life away and thinking into the dull miserable season that is autumn. Saying that, September apart from the shorter daylength is usually as good if not better than June and often a dry and warm month.

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Nothing worse than wishing your life away and thinking into the dull miserable season that is autumn. Saying that, September apart from the shorter daylength is usually as good if not better than June and often a dry and warm month.

 

I'm sure you wont be wishing your life away and talk about spring and summer during the winter then?

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I'm sure you wont be wishing your life away and talk about spring and summer during the winter then?

Much more to look forward to in spring and summer thank you very much. I'm not one for being stuck indoors all day thanks enjoying perpetual drizzle and dull skies.

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Nothing worse than wishing your life away and thinking into the dull miserable season that is autumn. Saying that, September apart from the shorter daylength is usually as good if not better than June and often a dry and warm month.

September has become a summer month!!

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Much more to look forward to in spring and summer thank you very much. I'm not one for being stuck indoors all day thanks enjoying perpetual drizzle and dull skies.

October is often a lovely month, temps in the mid-high teens, or low twenties occasionally, with some crisp Autumn sunshine and colourful foliage.

 

November is usually horrible though.

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Yes PJ, I was talking later in the decade mate, guaranteed +QBO this winter.

The thing is we can all find reasons to be positive about different factors leading into autumn , last year for example , we had everything bar low solar energy . We had -QBO , El Niño , - OPI , but last year it really all went wrong . What caused it ? The most obvious been dominant low pressure over northern Russian when thought it would be high pressure , that in turn stopped warm air been pumped up into the polar regions , we had another cold winter in the states ( I no that's debatable but extreme cold flooded central and eastern areas at times ). Which we no gave us another strong jet stream , we had zero blocking to our north because of this .

This year we don't no much at this stage apart from 2 maybe 3 things : strong El Niño all but guaranteed , a cold pool of water in the northern Atlantic , and a +QBO , so we may have an idea , does that increase the likely hood of SSW ? Figures suggest but who knows ? Does strong El Niño mean severe weather more likely ? Maybe but in what ways , we don't no !

Either way I can't wait , lol , going to Turkey mid October good timing keep me away from this addiction I have for a while ! Then get back and nearly November ! Roll on crisp days , cob webs , frosts , wine and log fires !!!

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Much more to look forward to in spring and summer thank you very much. I'm not one for being stuck indoors all day thanks enjoying perpetual drizzle and dull skies.

Some of us enjoy being outside when it's cold/ "dull"/ windy/ drizzly etc.

As for Autumn, I hope the Thames freezes over as soon as we hit the equinox.

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Much more to look forward to in spring and summer thank you very much. I'm not one for being stuck indoors all day thanks enjoying perpetual drizzle and dull skies.

 

Are people doing you any harm by looking forward to Autumn?

 

If you don't want to discuss or think about a season which you don't like, don't visit the relevant thread. It's quite simple.

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