central pacific Tropical Storm Iune

[Somerset Squall]

The Central Pacific basin has become very active this morning with two tropical depressions forming to join the currently active Tropical Depression Ela.Tropical Depression 02C has formed to the east of Tropical Depression 01C, and is located almost due south of Hawaii. Models are in disagreement on just how much 02C will strengthen, but CPHC are forecasting, quite uncertainly, for 02C to become a hurricane by day 5.

[Somerset Squall]

02C became Tropical Storm Iune yesterday, with winds of 35kts. Since then, Iune has not intensified any further, and currently, the small tropical storm has a very meager amount of convection associated with it. Only very slow strengthening is forecast. Models are still split between strengthening Iune to near hurricane strength or weakening it back to a tropical depression. So the intensity forecast is going to be a tricky one. A strengthening ridge to the north is expected to drive Iune to the west-southwest over the coming few days, followed by a more westerly track as it flattens out.

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has continued to dissipate in association with Iune, and all that is left is a fully exposed LLC. Winds are down to 25kts, making Iune a tropical depression. If convection doesn't return this afternoon however, Iune will be declared a remnant low. Dry air continues to filter in the circulation, making the chances of a convective comeback pretty small.

[Somerset Squall]

CPHC has issued their last advisory on Iune, declaring it a remnant low. This is the last advisory, love the little nod to Genevieve from last year (a storm that struggled very similarly, but went on to become a category 5 super typhoon!)

 

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IUNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022015500 AM HST MON JUL 13 2015 NIGHTTIME CLOUD TOP COOLING HAS ALLOWED SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM IN PLACES WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF IUNE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LLCC. SINCE IUNE HAS REMAINED DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR 18 HOURS...WE HAVE DOWNGRADED THIS SYSTEM TO A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST DISCUSSION FOR IT.THE ONLY SATELLITE CENTER CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS PHFO...WITH A 1.0 BASED ON MODEL EXPECTED T. THE FINAL INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THEREFORE SET AT 25 KT. IUNE HAS SUFFERED FROM AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ENTRAINED THROUGH ITS NORTHWEST...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS ALONG WITH DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THESE EFFECTS HAVE COUNTERED THOSE OF AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...LIKE LOW SHEAR. FOR COMPLETENESS...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SHIPS WANTS TO KEEP IUNE CHUGGING ALONG AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED MAINLY ON FRIENDLY SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. SHIPS ALSO SEES UPPER DIVERGENCE BECOMING MILDLY FAVORABLE AGAIN AFTER 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AT THIS POINT THAT IUNE WILL DISSIPATE SOON...BUT WE ALSO REMEMBER GENEVIEVE FROM LAST YEAR.  IUNE...AS A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST WITHIN LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH DISSIPATION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND WITH THE SHALLOW BETA AND ADVECTION MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT  13/1500Z 14.4N 164.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H  14/0000Z 14.3N 165.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Edited July 13, 2015 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

The remnant low of Iune is still out there drifting westwards. Recently, convection has increased near the low. CPHC only give a 10% chance of re-development into a tropical depression however.