South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 4th July and Onwards...

[mbrothers]

The berries growth is always interesting. Do you consider the berries have proliferated because the season has caused them to do so, i.e. the warmth and the rainfall has generated the growth?

OR

Do you consider that the berries are natures way of generating a strong fruit, with no knowledge of the coming season, in preparation for some severe weather(not quite sure how it knows but still).

 

With respect to the bracken, I'd be more inclined to review the possible new growth as a suggestion of impending opportunities, rather than the colour, as nature death of a plant in autumn promotes the colouring.

 

I go for the first, YET, I am always prepared to listen as to why for the later.

yes I would have thought any fruit was the result of previous weather rather than a prediction on future weather.

[Dorsetbred]

Wouldn't surprise me. Having said that, next door's cat has the thickest winter coat I think I've ever seen on a cat and the holly trees are laden with berries, I'm taking that as proof positive we're in for a repeat of '46/'47 

Do you really believe it will be this bad?

 

"This cold spell continued and by 30 January the Isles of Scilly were under 7 inches or 0.18 metres of snow and the overnight temperature at Writtle, Essex was −20 Â°C or −4 Â°F. Throughout January the highest recorded temperature in England and Wales was 14 Â°C or 57.2 Â°F and the minimum was −21 Â°C or −5.8 Â°F.^"

Edited November 20, 2015 by Dorsetbred

[legritter]

Brrrrr, it's getting chilly out there. Lovely to have a dry day but it's a bit of a shock to the system, that wind cuts straight through you. Gritters out on the way home from work, guess that's winter on the way then.

yes our local road today had new bins of grit put in ,also yard in village had the drivers testing the gritters ,some nice radar showing up showers up north ,but after years of weather watching i would not call this one !but everything synoptic wise is there but its a case of watching and waiting ,i would have thought some lake effect type snow around our coasts and some surprises possible in land if the dice falls right ,cheers .  ps truck loads of cider apples still being transported to thatchers ,about the latest i,v seen them doing this .

[AWD]

Any snow flurries tonight/tomorrow will be confined to high ground only really, lower levels will see rain or snizzle at best.

Whilst this is a potent cold snap for mid November, it still isn't cold enough for low level snow down here, the ground temps will modify the air temp slightly.

Nowhere in the south is going to see anything noteworthy any way.

[Blue max 90]

Sleeting, large flakes of snow mixed in. Dew point 0.5

[ThundersnowDays]

A cool 4.C here now.

Hoping we'll see at least some sleet and the first real frost this weekend , fingers crossed   .

 

[jethro]

I was being flippant earlier when I said about holly berries. I'm a professional gardener, of course I don't believe they portend a harsh winter, the amount of berries is entirely dependant upon weather conditions when they are forming, from flowering through to ripening.

 

That said, there's an awful lot of weather lore about and in the days before modern technology, people were more aware of what went on around them when it came to weather. So many more people were dependant upon working the land, the weather mattered so they noted things down, even if only mentally, and passed that wisdom on. Nowadays we know that large drivers such as the NAO, El Nino etc govern our weather. Those drivers take weeks, often months, sometimes years to change which makes me wonder about the old weather lore. There's got to be a glimmer of truth in it all or it wouldn't have been passed on, not understanding or knowing the truth of it nowadays doesn't mean it doesn't have a kernel of truth in it. So coming back to Holly berries, in times gone by it may have been noted because the weather pattern which led to a heavy crop, more often than not, led to a weather pattern which produced a harsh winter. They may not have known that an El Nino summer here was the reason why there were so many berries, nor that an El Nino winter often leads to late cold and snow, they'd just have noted the results, made the link and used one to predict the other.

[William Grimsley]

Just had some heavy rain/sleet showers here. Temperature: 5.7°C Dew Point: 4.5°C - seems high but somehow I still managed to get melted flakes.

Edited November 20, 2015 by William Grimsley

[festivalking]

David Braine reasonably bullish with snow on the exmoor and bodmin, i would assume dartmoor too just depends where the showers / streamers set up. Can't see it coming to much as the graphics show they will blow through quickly leaving a dry morning.

[gottolovethisweather]

Let it sleet, let it sleet, let it sleet. 

 

"practising reverse psychology here" of course, it will largely be rain or sleet at best for most BUT.... Those exposed to the Northerly and with elevation on their side might well see a dusting by morning. A few surface features in the flow showing up on the media forecasts so the next 36 hours may well bring surprises for some. FWIW I expect my local Wessex downs to have a slight dusting by morning. 

 

Out of interest, I think most of the organised stuff, mainly further East but not exclusively so will come into the overnight period.

Edited November 20, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[William Grimsley]

David Braine reasonably bullish with snow on the exmoor and bodmin, i would assume dartmoor too just depends where the showers / streamers set up. Can't see it coming to much as the graphics show they will blow through quickly leaving a dry morning.

Yeah, I thought that as well, to me it looked more like Dartmoor was going to get more snow than anywhere!

[bellanite]

Ah it's good to be back for another winter season!

Been hiding in the mod output thread for the last few weeks, looks like this winter will be interesting to say the least. No one really knows how el nino will impact our winter. Exciting times!

I hope everyone's dreams come true this year. Nice to see the usual suspects back 😄

Even better the council have finally fixed the lamppost so I can curtain twitch to my hearts content.

Might get lucky and see something wintery falling from the sky tonight that's a bonus already 😂

Current stats

Temp 5.3

Dew point 2.7

Cloudy

[Mark Neal.]

3.4C and tumbling... 

[A.J]

just seen fergie's forecast on Points West FB page......happy with that

[A.J]

Just had some heavy rain/sleet showers here. Temperature: 5.7°C Dew Point: 4.5°C - seems high but somehow I still managed to get melted flakes.

you mean rain

[Methuselah]

Just had some heavy rain/sleet showers here. Temperature: 5.7°C Dew Point: 4.5°C - seems high but somehow I still managed to get melted flakes.

Aye - I've seen quite a few of those, of late, William!  

[dancing daisy]

Did someone say snow?

Ello all.

[AcceptedPlanet]

Hope we do get some white stuff, here on the cotswolds its:

4C, clear 

Dew point 2C

1004.8  hPa

[katemart]

B****y warming up here. Not happy.

[Mark Neal.]

2.5c. Clear spells. Heavy shower to the NE missed here. Dewpoint now 1:8c

[Frosty_wsm]

Just had a very wintry shower pass through, could see sleet /wet snow hitting the windscreen. Poured it down for a few minutes which must have helped drag the air temp down during the shower.

Edited November 20, 2015 by Smartie

[bellanite]

We have sleeeet! Temp has dropped by about 1.5C in the last 30 min and wind has picked up

 

Temp 3.8

DP 0.5

Rain/Sleet

[JamieUK]

Heavy ice shower here in Aylesbury. Very strange as had a couple cracks of thunder and some lightning!

[Ali1977]

Big shower heading for Swindon , maybe we will get wet snow/sleet...

[katemart]

Big shower heading for Swindon , maybe we will get wet snow/sleet...

 

Chappy on #uksnow says 6/10 in SN6, but then ruins it by saying it is sleet! Hopefully it will bring the air temp down for you

 

5.8C here now! DP 2.1C and 77% humidity.