South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 4th July and Onwards...

[ARTDEMOLE]

heavy downpour at times. Then blue sky with rainbow. Then a downpour again. S. Westerly winds 31km.h. Pressure 999.3hpa. Temperature 14.0c.  Broken cloud now....  

[John88B]

Hi all, back for another winter of fun and games! The wind has really picked up here over the last hour. Very strong gusts here now.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Just brought all garden ornaments into shed and taken down TWO bird feeding stations. Already rocking in the wind.... Gusting well.

[John Badrick]

No mention of any wintery ppn even on the moors from david braine tonight when discussing the weekend. I wonder if he is waiting for more info before "worrying" the local population......

Are you expecting any action regarding snow with you over the weekend fk? Wondering if it'll be worth a trip to Princetown on Sunday? Will keep an eye on the Dartcam with interest!

Edited November 17, 2015 by John Badrick

[Andy Pepler]

not posted in a while but i had to report this ..

 

about 40 mins ago while walking in to my local town center a real heavy downpour happend .. i have never seen rain so hard and in such amounts before .it was that heavy it was setting car alarms off and it was sheeting off the roofs in what it looked like one solid sheet .. looked at the nwradar and i was under a purple spot :O .. epic was not the word ..

[ThundersnowDays]

The winds really picking up now

The sustained wind is only a moderate breeze here (F4)

but the gusts are up to High wind (F7)

and as I speak a very strong gust just hit which was actually a little bit frightening

[Polar Bear]

Squall line just passed through Newbury with intense ppn for about 5 mins. Good job I tidied my garden this morn! Looking forward to seeing the gales later.

[Frosty_wsm]

Stormy as hell out there right now, anything in the garden that ain't bolted down is frequently on the move!!

[Nights King]

Doesn't seem too bad here just grey and wet day.

 

Roll on winter or should I say the weekend... 

[chris55]

Timed my dog walk up the common for around 3 ish today and woohaaaaa that wind was something special. Its not often we get winds that you struggle to walk against here in Stroud, but on the common with nothing but the Severn Vale for 60 miles before the land rises, it was epic!!! Could lean back into the wind totally and not fall over. Love it!!!!! And the Roar was intense!

[A.J]

50+mph gusts blasting through here at the mo, and the mean wind's getting stronger by the minute

[ThundersnowDays]

Winds getting real here now

The classing whistling sounds above my head and one bush looks like its about to blow away.

The roaring is constant and the gusts are much stronger than earlier.

 

However the wind isn't strong enough to move me and no blackouts yet so if those happened it'd be the perfect storm.

Edited November 17, 2015 by ThundersnowDays

[SilverWolf]

Nice and wild in Stroud right now. Burner flue playing a tune. Good to blow the cobwebs away before the wind chill on Saturday! Just seen on the Model output thread..maybe even a bit white on the hills here. Interesting only a week or so ago Fergie commented that no models were showing any cold before end December at that time.

[knocker]

Around 50mph gusts here. I don't think it's going to get as high as the forecast was indicating.

[festivalking]

Are you expecting any action regarding snow with you over the weekend fk? Wondering if it'll be worth a trip to Princetown on Sunday? Will keep an eye on the Dartcam with interest!

nothing definite yet...but talk of a channel low based on latest models which could prove fruitful when it comes to snow on the moor. Mind you last time it was progged it all went south.... literally, channel islands buried the moors flooded with tears from snow lovers.

Bottom line is to early to tell. Chuffing cold whatever happens up here.

[khodds]

Interesting spell of weather - finally - the wind is rattling the cat flap at the moment, but nothing exceptional here, think we are that little bit too far south to bear the brunt of it.

Looking forward to the weekend now, off to dig out the gloves and scarf

[AWD]

Looking forward to the weekend now, off to dig out the gloves and scarf

Don't forget the snow shovel.

[gottolovethisweather]

A 46mph gust a few moments ago here in my relatively sheltered valley. 54mph being the highest the Davis has registered until now, all records since 2008.

[khodds]

Don't forget the snow shovel.

Don't say that! I bought one two years ago and I'm yet to use it! Haha!

[Rich_Clements]

Wind has now dropped, thankfully

[Wynn D Woo]

Still getting strong gusts of wind, had hoped it would have eased off a lot more by now.

[gottolovethisweather]

Obviously subject to much change with regards to the specifics but those wanting wintry potential should look no further than tonight's GFS 18z offerings. From Friday night into late Sunday there is potential for a fair few centimetres/inches of snow particularly at elevation, should the anticipated disturbances in the flow come about as forecast. The best places in which to position yourself are those exposed to the Northerly winds and I must say currently Wales is undoubtedly the place to head within touching distance of our part of the world. The SW moors and perhaps those Mendip hills coming in a close second. 

 

This is intended as the briefest of analyses based upon one run in isolation so NOT my idea of an accurate prediction for impending weather patterns, especially when it comes to snow. A heads up is all it is for now and I will await more input from others and give it another 48 hours before attempting a sounder judgement on whether those hills are to turn white for the first time in many a month within this region. Frosts though, are a certainty given clear skies and that biting wind-chill is another. 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

A bit windy tonight but nothing too severe.

 

I keep watching the model thread and getting excited by the possible channel low back edge snow but I doubt it will come to anything.

 

Gtlw would you say that possible channel low is our regions best chance of seeing something? showers are very few and far between away from Dartmoor and ex moor exposed to northerly? Also it would take a heavy shower to settle on the wet warm ground I fear.

Edited November 17, 2015 by Nights King

[khodds]

It's very interesting output atm but I'm not going to get excited as its still too far out to do so. Would be lovely if it did come off though

[gottolovethisweather]

A bit windy tonight but nothing too severe.

 

I keep watching the model thread and getting excited by the possible channel low back edge snow but I doubt it will come to anything.

 

Gtlw would you say that possible channel low is our regions best chance of seeing something? showers are very few and far between away from Dartmoor and ex moor exposed to northerly? Also it would take a heavy shower to settle on the wet warm ground I fear.

 

A brief period of back-edge snow is possible come Friday evening but with so many factors at play, unable to consider this scenario until within 24 hours I'd suggest, so later Thursday before we get much idea on that. Showery bursts and disturbances in the flow are the better bet right now and location, location, location will be the key detail again  to concentrate on, I imagine. With an individual's knowledge of one's own patch either promoting or downgrading these chances given the wind direction, ranging NW through to NE during the crucial period, it will differ greatly based upon that. The warm ground would never stand a chance against the polar air in stopping a build of snow if (a big IF) should the conditions be ripe for it. 

 

I hope that answers your questions Mulls and as for you and anyone else in here, I bid you nighty night.

It's very interesting output atm but I'm not going to get excited as its still too far out to do so. Would be lovely if it did come off though

 

A wise woman you are.