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Storm & Convective Discussion - 04/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes


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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

My new phone has manual settings available, iso, exposure control up to 30 seconds and even saving as a DNG with no processing. It is possible to get some great lightning shots with it, but, only by continuous shooting. If you start doing long exposure shots with lightning, the fixed F1.8 aperture starts to cause a problem.. Far too much light. It's amazing in low light though, it blows a lot of p&s cameras out of the water!

It won't be too long before aperture control will be available on a phone, that day will be exciting! :D

Ps: Anyone got withdrawal symptoms after the last few days?

 

NO definitely not lol

 

edit - estofex level 3 for parts of Germany and evne though they show symbols over UK not even a mention

 

boo or yay depending on your point of view

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

 thunder storms incoming from france should see some in kent any time  soon

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Looks like quite a feature heading from France to Belgium, possibly clipping the extreme SE corner.

As for things further west, showers already heading into Cornwall and SW Wales. As solar heating takes place through the day these could grow into "typical UK" thunderstorms over the West Midlands, NW England and later, Yorkshire & Northumberland.

From an IMBY perspective, after being too far west the other night, i think I'm too far south today with the core of any action to my North.

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Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border

Well, it was an entertaining night! Heres a short sample of it for you all. Taken by me.

 

I love the thunder sound at around 0:28. 

Edited by Rain123
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Issued 2015-07-05 07:31:36

Valid: 05/07/2015 0600z to 06/07/2015 0600z

CONVECTIVE/STORM OUTLOOK - 5TH JULY 2015

Synopsis

Upper low will persist over the mid-N Atlantic to the west of the British Isles during Sunday. A strong SWly jet stream ahead of the upper low transfers east across the UK before veering westerly as a shortwave upper trough moves NE across the UK. This shortwave trough moving NE across western, central and northern areas will be the main driving force for heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday. A cold front across SE England separating warm moist plume over near continent, will bring a low risk of thunder here this morning.

… IRELAND, N IRELAND, SW ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS, N ENGLAND and SCOTLAND …

Shortwave trough moving NE across the above areas will introduce colder aloft atop of diurnally heated moist SWly surface flow, creating steep lapse rated and 400-800 j/kg CAPE. Thunderstorms are already evident in the SW approaches, this large scale ascent moving in from the SW with approaching trough combined with diurnal heating beneath steepening lapse rates will support the development of scattered heavy showers and some thunderstorms further NE across the above areas. Although winds will be unidirectional at different heights when greatest instability occurs, there may be enough wind shear to allow storms to organise into multicell structures capable of producing gusty winds. Although steering wind will be fairly strong, meaning cells will be fast moving, some training of storms over hillier areas appears possible, leading to a localised threat of flooding – particularly higher ground across SW England, Wales and NW England, where have included a marginal risk for threat of excessive rainfall.

… FAR SE OF ENGLAND …

Plume of warm moist air over France will briefly clip SE England on Sunday morning before retreating as cold front on western edge of plume moves east. Rainfall along this frontal boundary affecting the far SE may have some convective elements, with a low risk of embedded thunder across Kent and Sussex, sferics recently noted off the S Kent coast.

post-1052-0-37014800-1436081699_thumb.pn

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Looks like quite a feature heading from France to Belgium, possibly clipping the extreme SE corner.

As for things further west, showers already heading into Cornwall and SW Wales. As solar heating takes place through the day these could grow into "typical UK" thunderstorms over the West Midlands, NW England and later, Yorkshire & Northumberland.

From an IMBY perspective, after being too far west the other night, i think I'm too far south today with the core of any action to my North.

EDIT: Actually, you might be right here...

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

Plenty of strikes showing in kent this morning,and Heavy rain for large portions of the SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset

Strikes showing from the showers down in the south west now. May get a couple rumbles today

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Looks like quite a feature heading from France to Belgium, possibly clipping the extreme SE corner.

As for things further west, showers already heading into Cornwall and SW Wales. As solar heating takes place through the day these could grow into "typical UK" thunderstorms over the West Midlands, NW England and later, Yorkshire & Northumberland.

From an IMBY perspective, after being too far west the other night, i think I'm too far south today with the core of any action to my North.

A few sparks already in Cornwall...don't give up hope! :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

Hoping that those of us who missed out the other night, get a taste today. Won't be anything like as good a show as what you guys got, but typical UK storm will do nicely.

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

At current analysis, due to 850 hPa winds being SSW over Devon, Dorset and Somerset, I think most showers and thunderstorms this morning will travel up through Cornwall and into SW Wales. However, later on 850 hPa winds will veer more SW and later WSW and as this combines with slightly higher CAPE + LI over Dartmoor, this could produce more heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms to develop and move west across especially N Devon and Somerset. Whilst areas to the south of this main risk zone may stay dry, there is still a risk of seeing some heavy showers/thunderstorms later on this afternoon even though the risk may not be so high.

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Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset

Stuff to the south west looks to be getting its act together. What was a thin line of showers or a squall line, is now growing and merging , might have something here which will make up for the lack of plumeage . Not overly electrified at the moment, but suns oit now so could help get things going.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

I think I may need to watch what develops here as this is on the southern flank of the line of showers.

fe20841068305fc2433b582d674a0af8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset

At current analysis, due to 850 hPa winds being SSW over Devon, Dorset and Somerset, I think most showers and thunderstorms this morning will travel up through Cornwall and into SW Wales. However, later on 850 hPa winds will veer more SW and later WSW and as this combines with slightly higher CAPE + LI over Dartmoor, this could produce more heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms to develop and move west across especially N Devon and Somerset. Whilst areas to the south of this main risk zone may stay dry, there is still a risk of seeing some heavy showers/thunderstorms later on this afternoon even though the risk may not be so high.

Only think we're due morning showers here buddy . this lots moving off north west, then we're left with a reasonable day

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Only think we're due morning showers here buddy . this lots moving off north west, then we're left with a reasonable day

Yes, maybe for northern parts of the SW but certainly for southern parts it's more of an early afternoon risk.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

I feel parts of Cornwall (already), Devon, Somerset, S Wales, Bristol region could see some brief thundery showers, with the main focus drifting up toward parts of the W Midlands and N England as the surface trough heads up that way this afternoon. CAPE/Li OK but not great and actually the 3km NMM show the better values more widespread this morning than this afternoon... so another wait and see job.

 

You can pretty much see where the surface troughs are currently - ok only a little activity likely and very hit and miss, but better than nothing for some of us...

post-15172-0-63627200-1436084917_thumb.p

 

1300hrs chart by the MetO:

post-15172-0-82246900-1436085026_thumb.p

 

PS - The storms currently moving through Germany are blitzing the lightning detector!!

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Looks like I may miss out of the action, everything is going to my NW...

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So it really hasn't ranied in month's here apart from the other night and bits and bobs nothing amazing.

I thought that today's rain would give us some nope.

Surrey council or were I love have declared that water is to be used sparingly and the water pressure is beyond a joke.

The grass is brown everywhere near by the fields to.

When are we goona get some rain?!?!

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