Storm & Convective Discussion - 04/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Supacell]

We have some AcCas here too. I wonder if there may be some surprises tonight.

I can't see any model that forecasts thunder this far south but rain is forecast.

[cheese]

Yup, same here.

[William Grimsley]

Lots of instability in the air even down here, wasn't expecting this!

[Dami]

Small pockets of AcCas forming here:

20150710_142223.jpg

I didn't think i was going mad! I haven't got any pics, but i have seen a sky like this twice today, once around noon and it all disappeared, then it came back this afternoon., little towers and the like. If we had any thing forecast for this area i would be quite happy

[William Grimsley]

The sky looking SSW from here. Lots of Ac and a bit of Ac Cas in the mix.

[William Grimsley]

Looking ESE. Lots of Ac and Ac Cas here.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just took some piccies of some interesting clouds(allbeit small) with some little rain shafts,what clouds are these,Altocumulus?

 

 

found it on google

 

Altocumulus castellanus i think

 

 

[toggerob]

Got the same AcCas 'jellyfish' clouds here at the moment aswell

[Mokidugway]

Sky beginning to look unstable no AcCas as yet though ..

[cheese]

We had virga here too. Anyone else?

[Winter Cold]

So is it the line of showers just coming out of Eire that we need to track? Is this the line that should develop into storms hopefully pushing NE? If so they seem to be developing far enough south to track accross most of the north of England!

 

Could it be two Friday nights in a row with a storm????

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looks quite pre-storm here - no mention of anything in any forecasts tho

[Weather-history]

Some sferics appearing in the Celtic Sea

[Polar Maritime]

Here's my sky view just now, Temp 24c. Including a Buzzard..

Edited July 10, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Dami]

We had virga here too. Anyone else?

there has been some those here too.

[William Grimsley]

We had virga here too. Anyone else?

Lots of virga with some showers making the ground. Don't want anything wet to spoil the BBQ, it would have to be electrified.

[William Grimsley]

Mammatus to my north now, it's interesting but doubt anything will happen.

[Mokidugway]

Any Virga around here needs Viagra .....

[Costa Del Fal]

Where on earth is this instability coming from. Storm near Brest now too.

[William Grimsley]

Where on earth is this instability coming from. Storm near Brest now too.

That's what I'm confused about? Not enough CAPE and certainly too high LI values.

 

Actually, yes, where the hell is this coming from? I mean it's not surface based. I've never seen this before...

Edited July 10, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Andy Bown]

The reasons for instability are quite obvious really if you look at the Met Office fax charts, a small trough ahead of a cold front both moving in from the Atlantic allied to hot air drifting up from the South ahead of them.

[Winter Cold]

So it is possible to have trough led storms then and no CAPE or LI is needed sometimes? Im confuzzled.

 

 

GFS 12z just out has nothing, except for a very brief -4 CAPE for 3 hours only tonight in the NE of England:

 

Edited July 10, 2015 by Winter Cold

[William Grimsley]

The reasons for instability are quite obvious really if you look at the Met Office fax charts, a small trough ahead of a cold front both moving in from the Atlantic allied to hot air drifting up from the South ahead of them.

Yeah, but there is no CAPE or LI so how is this possible?

[Costa Del Fal]

The reasons for instability are quite obvious really if you look at the Met Office fax charts, a small trough ahead of a cold front both moving in from the Atlantic allied to hot air drifting up from the South ahead of them.

But there is barely any Cape, high ish LIs. No one has mentioned this today so it could not have been obvious actually.

[Methuselah]

Yeah, but there is no CAPE or LI so how is this possible?

But what if there's no cap?