Storm & Convective Discussion - 04/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Gordon Webb]

Helen Willets still talking in terms of problomatic localised storms for areas mentioned already here, 'real deluges' rainfall wise. A met office yellow warning will appear tomorrow morning i would think.

 

"localised storms" so locally it's going to get very wet hardly nailing her colours to the mast is it , by tomorrow it'll be scattered thundery showers and if Carol Kirkwood mentions the Dreaded "H" word well in that case your all knackered then

Edited July 15, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Summer Sun]

yep the storms on the 1st and 3rd of July I think were well warned at least 2 days in advance for some due to all the heat humidity that had been building for a few days

 

the warm humid air tomorrow will be arriving in the evening I think as the daytime warmth is subsiding and wont be hanging around either but I am surprised there's no warning about the strength of the wind considering the time of year

 

the wind speed may be typical for october/november but not July

 

GFS 12z looks to have diluted the precipitation a little bit at first glance and cape / LI looks less widespread too and the storm risk reduces quicker too through the evening after 9pm although not dying completely except Eastern england

 

Strongest winds are forecast for the north where as in the south it will be lighter so thats probably why no warnings are out at this stage

 

Maybe warnings will be issued tomorrow once they firm up on the wind gusts

[Azazel]

"localised storms" so locally it's going to get very wet hardly nailing her colours to the mast is it , by tomorrow it'll be scattered thundery showers and if Carol Kirkwood mentions the Dreaded "H" word well in that case your all knackered then

 

 

Does Lucy Verasamy still present the weather?

[Gordon Webb]

Does Lucy Verasamy still present the weather?

 

Yep she's with ITV Weather

[Azazel]

Yep she's with ITV Weather

 

 

I wouldn't mind seeing her "humdingers" or her "warm front" - eh? eh???

 

Seriously though, good luck for everyone tomorrow. I'm at a gig in London so i might see something on the way home:)

[Carl46Wrexham]

I wouldn't mind seeing her "humdingers" or her "warm front" - eh? eh???

 

Seriously though, good luck for everyone tomorrow. I'm at a gig in London so i might see something on the way home:)

You just jinxed it. Those of us who have so far seen nowt are not happy with you! Tin hat on and find a foxhole. We angry NSC members are coming for you. Grrrr.

[Gordon Webb]

Can't be much of note on the horizion as all is quiet on the ESTOFEX front

[Hodgheg]

Just catching up, not getting my hopes up as it stresses me out too much, plus not much can beat last times storms. Fingers crossed for something though, will have the camera ready again. 

[Supacell]

Can't be much of note on the horizion as all is quiet on the ESTOFEX front

Estofex do not normally release a forecast until early am.

[Gordon Webb]

Estofex do not normally release a forecast until early am.

 

ok

[THE MISSFITS]

"localised storms" so locally it's going to get very wet hardly nailing her colours to the mast is it , by tomorrow it'll be scattered thundery showers and if Carol Kirkwood mentions the Dreaded "H" word well in that case your all knackered then

 

It would appear that Carol K is on holiday this week so we may be in business...        Then again I'm petrified of storms so maybe not Oh well "him indoors" will be happy and will record proceedings as he is a sound recordist so will keep you posted from Marlow!

[Harry]

Latest viewings still fairly positive although as ever, divergences rife.

MetO Invent charts coming into range, showing convective precipitation breaking out well north of London - say Birmingham northwards roughly. Doesn't go beyond 2200 yet but this ties in with the latest Beeb run. Not taking this forecast seriously yet as we all know what the Beeb predicted two weeks ago as little as 6 hours before the event...hopelessly wrong. Time will tell.

Euro4 which was equally hopeless two weeks ago very much in line with MetO Beeb projections currently. Again not taking this seriously yet.

NMM 5, the most accurate two weeks ago IMO, keen to break out convective precipitation in an arc from S Wales initially (from around 5-6pm, possibly surface based tapping into available SBCAPE) spreading NEwards with more elevated (likely) convection breaking out across C/S England around 23-00z spreading NE. Eastern most areas (Kent/Sussex/Essex) possibly missing out on this run but wouldn't take locations too literally. The most generous MUCAPE values on offer here, typically 800-1,500 j/kg with LIs typically -4 to -6 (locally to the S Coast the higher end).

GFS much less generous with MUCAPE levels (around 500 j/kg) but much more extensive with precipitation coverage. My interpretation of the GFS is a favouring of more eastern areas for the more intense precip but it is a more crude precipitation chart than NMM.

So in summary, quite a bit of model divergence. Based on projected instability I struggle to agree with UKMO/Euro4, which were comprehensively wrong two weeks ago...that of course is not to say they will be wrong this time round, but I'm favouring currently NMM 5.

Will have a stab at a revised risk chart tomorrow lunch time once the models have had a few more runs.

Estofex do not normally release a forecast until early am.

I'm not sure Estofex have released any forecasts this week...might be holiday season for them.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Estofex got it majorly wrong on the night of the 3rd anyway. A level 2 bust happened in Northern France! I wasn't even in the 50% chance lightning zone either but saw more lightning than many previous years combined! Very unlike them I must say, but just shows the unpredictability of forecasting storms.

[Gordon Webb]

It would appear that Carol K is on holiday this week so we may be in business...        Then again I'm petrified of storms so maybe not Oh well "him indoors" will be happy and will record proceedings as he is a sound recordist so will keep you posted from Marlow!

 

i don't like them either but a financail tip don't buy earplugs as some chemist convinced me to do as they are about as effective of blocking out noise as a tea towel is off preventing a tidal wave

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Very similar synoptics to what we could see tomorrow happened on the 3rd July 1999 too, which was an absolute cracker here and for many Southern parts. The charts are almost identical!

 

3rd July 1999:

 

Tomorrow's potential:

 

 

A little discussion that was google's equivalent to the convective thread took place back then also, which looked quite phenomenal. Link is below.

 

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/uk.sci.weather/UIpaIsxpzPU

Edited July 15, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Harry]

Very similar synoptics to what we could see tomorrow happened on the 3rd July 1999 too, which was an absolute cracker here and for many Southern parts. The charts are almost identical!

 

3rd July 1999:

Rrea00119990703.gif

 

Tomorrow's potential:

h500slp.png

 

 

A little discussion that was google's equivalent to the convective thread took place back then also, which looked quite phenomenal. Link is below.

 

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/uk.sci.weather/UIpaIsxpzPU

Love it...agreed that the Synoptics are very similar indeed. Would love to know the full extent of storms for that set up.

[marshallfarm]

Looking good for my area. Hoping for no hail though as got 400 acres of oilseed rape that will get destroyed if it hail. And I didn't take out hail insurance this year

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Love it...agreed that the Synoptics are very similar indeed. Would love to know the full extent of storms for that set up.

Was 7 at the time, now 23, but damn I wish this site and technology existed back then, and had the knowledge I do now! 

From what I remember, I got woken up, initially too scared to even open my eyes as it sounded that bad. But I remember eventually looking out at it ( as everybody in the house was up and about like OMG!) It was some of the best, clear cut anvil crawlers and CG's I can remember seeing, thinking of it now, quite a bit better than 2 weeks ago. The bloke on that google forum was not wrong about the constant lightning either, I seem to remember the thunder clearing completely, but to the SE and E, it was constant, sky filled with anvil crawlers, CG's, the lot! I recall actually thinking how on earth am I hearing no thunder from this! It was amazing and it has really come back to me how scared and frightened I was 

I know 'Sprites' on here has got some pictures of that storm too. Surely there must be more people on here in Southern regions that remembered this beast?

Edited July 15, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[alexisj9]

Was 8 at the time, now 23, but damn I wish this site and technology existed back then, and had the knowledge I do now! 

From what I remember, I got woken up, initially too scared to even open my eyes as it sounded that bad. But I remember eventually looking out at it ( as everybody in the house was up and about like OMG!) It was some of the best, clear cut anvil crawlers and CG's I can remember seeing, thinking of it now, quite a bit better than 2 weeks ago. The bloke on that google forum was not wrong about the constant lightning either, I seem to remember the thunder clearing completely, but to the SE and E, it was constant, sky filled with anvil crawlers, CG's, the lot! I recall actually thinking how on earth am I hearing no thunder from this! It was amazing and it has really come back to me how scared and frightened I was 

I know 'Sprites' on here has got some pictures of that storm too. Surely there must be more people on here in Southern regions that remembered this beast?

I remember one storm that scared me real bad don't know when it was,  but it was constant lightning and when one bit was getting very close had about 10 strikes almost right over my house in a row, will never forget that. 

[Harry]

1999 was the year that cemented storm phobia to complete fascination for me...what a year all round.

Quick moan about flying ant season which kicked off in style this evening - millions of the buggers EVERYWHERE - landing on your head, clothes, legs...irritating

[Nick L]

I wouldn't mind seeing her "humdingers" or her "warm front" - eh? eh???

 

Seriously though, good luck for everyone tomorrow. I'm at a gig in London so i might see something on the way home:)

 

Met her at work a few weeks back

[Speedway Slider]

Hmmmm, no aeriel ants up here in Leicester yet, little beggars, they have no sense of direction or flying skills whatsoever!!

But will we get any "Thorms" Now what was his name? The weatherman who coined that Thunderstorm short name?? That's your starter for 10pts.....

[Gordon Webb]

Hmmmm, no aeriel ants up here in Leicester yet, little beggars, they have no sense of direction or flying skills whatsoever!!

But will we get any "Thorms" Now what was his name? The weatherman who coined that Thunderstorm short name?? That's your starter for 10pts.....

 

John Coleman

[Captain Shortwave]

No real change from me over the potential. Highest risk seems to be central/southern England into the south east. Highest risk probably from Hampshire up to the Wash/Humber for me, though this could shift east of course. 

I guess a similar initiation to the last storm set up, clear skies until early evening before mid-level cloud builds and explodes into life later into the evening with storms rumbling through the early hours.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Met her at work a few weeks back

Is this what's causing all the current humidity?

;-)