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Storm & Convective Discussion - 04/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

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Met office has the thunder symbols over Wales, the south west and parts of the West Midlands tomorrow. They will be Nothing on last night though. They might organise into a line for s time though?

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Tomorrow may be of some interest for some Western areas who did not join in the fun last night. A showery surface trough is modeled to swing in from the SW/W, providing a possibility of some thundery showers in areas with low-moderate surface CAPE during the afternoon. A more sunshine and showers setup, so certainly a more a hit and miss affair (supposedly last night was meant to be "isolated" :laugh: ). Although if it keeps going as it heads NE could be a good shout for parts of NW/N/NE England towards tea time.

 

A grain of sand compared to last night, but should provide some nice towering cumulus/cumulonimbus clouds at least and fingers crossed the odd flash and rumble along with them. If we can't have the big storms I guess we can stare at some clouds instead right?  :p  :clap:  :rolleyes:

 

post-15172-0-23346300-1436015563_thumb.j

post-15172-0-36266400-1436015584_thumb.j

Nice blob of precip modelled to clip the SE too...perhaps thundery if the conditions are conducive?

post-15172-0-04035800-1436015603_thumb.p

post-15172-0-04924500-1436015614_thumb.p

post-15172-0-05804300-1436015628_thumb.p

post-15172-0-14042100-1436015640_thumb.p

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Lightning animation map: http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php?bo_page=archive&bo_hour_range=7&bo_oldmap=6&bo_oldani=1&bo_map=6&bo_year=2015&bo_month=7&bo_day=3&bo_hour_from=21&bo_hour_range=10&bo_animation=now#bo_arch_strikes_maps_form

 

Difference between last night's storms and Wednesday's storms is that last night's affected millions of people. Wednesday's supercells, while amazing, trundled through some very sparsely populated areas of the country. I mean, how often do you see a line of storms 200 miles long moving through the UK?

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I bet for whoever snapped this bolt in Tring, they needed a change of underwear after. Stunning (from BBC gallery).

post-3790-0-64405000-1436018665_thumb.jp

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I bet for whoever snapped this bolt in Tring, they needed a change of underwear after. Stunning (from BBC gallery).

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

 

Haha he's my boss!

 

He said the shockwave knocked his GoPro tripod over, and he felt the heat from the strike.

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Haha he's my boss!

 

He said the shockwave knocked his GoPro tripod over, and he felt the heat from the strike.

lol, he nearly wasn't :0...!!

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Severe Weather Europe Just released a forecast for tomorrow. Maybe something for the SE corner?


post-15172-0-48416200-1436022545_thumb.p


 


*** A widespread severe weather outbreak appears likely across parts of central Europe on Sunday, July 5th. A very dangerous weather scenario is shaping up for parts of Benelux and across the north-central Germany with numerous severe storms expected to form by mid afternoon and spread NE-wards in the evening/early night hours. Tornadoes, large to very large hail and destructive winds could occur. ***


A broad upper ridge sits across the south-central Europe while a large upper low/trough is located across E Atlantic and the British Isles. On Sunday late morning, a robust short-wave trough with well-defined DCVA and sharp surface cold front will push across the English Channel into Benelux region, providing widespread ascent for severe storms. Another trough/low remains over NW Russia, pushing a cold front towards south. A weakening upper low remains stationary over the Black Sea.


A HIGH risk has been issued for parts of eastern Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and N-NW Germany with threat for destructive winds, torrential rainfall, large to very large hail and tornadoes.


A MDT risk has been issued for areas surrounding the HIGH risk including NE France, N-CNTRL Germany, SE UK, Benelux, extreme NW Poland, SW Sweden and S Denmark with threat for damaging severe winds, large to very large hail, torrential rainfall and some tornado threat.


Latest model guidance confirming a very dangerous setup with strong to extreme instability (SBCAPE locally in excess of 4-5000 J/kg) combined with moderately strong directional shear in place. Once the ascent associated with trough axis spreads across Benelux region, conditions should support rapid development of severe storms across the western half of the HIGH risk area, spreading E-NE towards the evening. Enhanced LL shear and helicity should support discrete supercells in the first hours of convective activity, capable of producing tornadoes, destructive hail and severe winds. Somehow higher dewpoint spread could be a limiting factor for tornado threat. Later on, storms are expected to merge into one of more severe clusters, posing threat for destructive winds and occasional large hail while moving NE. Activity should continue well into the night hours when it finally weakens towards the morning hours.


A SLGT risk has been issued for western Russia with threat for severe winds, heavy rainfall and marginally large hail along the southwards moving cold front.


A SLGT risk has been for the Alpine region and central France where some organized storms should pose threat for excessive torrential rainfall, large hail and severe winds.


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Severe Weather Europe Just released a forecast for tomorrow. Maybe something for the SE corner?

attachicon.gif11698821_1698566653699762_4272770802372399216_o.png

*** A widespread severe weather outbreak appears likely across parts of central Europe on Sunday, July 5th. A very dangerous weather scenario is shaping up for parts of Benelux and across the north-central Germany with numerous severe storms expected to form by mid afternoon and spread NE-wards in the evening/early night hours. Tornadoes, large to very large hail and destructive winds could occur. ***

A broad upper ridge sits across the south-central Europe while a large upper low/trough is located across E Atlantic and the British Isles. On Sunday late morning, a robust short-wave trough with well-defined DCVA and sharp surface cold front will push across the English Channel into Benelux region, providing widespread ascent for severe storms. Another trough/low remains over NW Russia, pushing a cold front towards south. A weakening upper low remains stationary over the Black Sea.

A HIGH risk has been issued for parts of eastern Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and N-NW Germany with threat for destructive winds, torrential rainfall, large to very large hail and tornadoes.

A MDT risk has been issued for areas surrounding the HIGH risk including NE France, N-CNTRL Germany, SE UK, Benelux, extreme NW Poland, SW Sweden and S Denmark with threat for damaging severe winds, large to very large hail, torrential rainfall and some tornado threat.

Latest model guidance confirming a very dangerous setup with strong to extreme instability (SBCAPE locally in excess of 4-5000 J/kg) combined with moderately strong directional shear in place. Once the ascent associated with trough axis spreads across Benelux region, conditions should support rapid development of severe storms across the western half of the HIGH risk area, spreading E-NE towards the evening. Enhanced LL shear and helicity should support discrete supercells in the first hours of convective activity, capable of producing tornadoes, destructive hail and severe winds. Somehow higher dewpoint spread could be a limiting factor for tornado threat. Later on, storms are expected to merge into one of more severe clusters, posing threat for destructive winds and occasional large hail while moving NE. Activity should continue well into the night hours when it finally weakens towards the morning hours.

A SLGT risk has been issued for western Russia with threat for severe winds, heavy rainfall and marginally large hail along the southwards moving cold front.

A SLGT risk has been for the Alpine region and central France where some organized storms should pose threat for excessive torrential rainfall, large hail and severe winds.

Blimey, could be the first Estofex Lvl 3 of the year. Struggle to see the SE is under any risk, let alone an MDT. I stand (hopefully) to be corrected.

FAX chart indicates we could be swiped by a warm front, with GFS and NMM suggesting the slightest tongue of instability creeping into the far SE (MUCAPE only).

Both GFS and NMM pointing to a significant precipitation outbreak anywhere east of London and Norwich say. I struggle to see how electrification would be sustained from France, even if both models suggest rapid intensification over the SE.

Definitely not getting my hopes up - if anything slightly irritated that what was initially meant yo be a nice day may now be raining. IMO, nothing more than say a 15% lightning area over perhaps Far E Kent and maybe the Sussex coast.

Just seen MetO forecasting thundery rain in Sussex and Kent in the morning. Maybe an isolated rumble, nothing more IMO - though will shamelessly keep fingers crossed for more than that :D

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Haha he's my boss!

 

He said the shockwave knocked his GoPro tripod over, and he felt the heat from the strike.

Tell him from me that I appreciate the awesome pic! Wicked catch

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ukprec.png

 

ukcapeli.png

 

ukstormrisk.png

 

 

Tomorrow afternoon....

 

The situation tomorrow actually has the potential to put down more water than the storms last night in the areas that receive them as they'll be fairly slow moving and I'm guessing more precipitation will reach ground level. Obviously lightning activity will be less prolific....

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UK Weather Scientific's forecast for tomorrow:

 

post-15172-0-18754900-1436027936_thumb.p

 

ENHANCED RISK of THUNDERSTORMS for Sun 5th July from 10:00 until 22:00: ENGLAND, SCOTLAND & WALES. STORMS LOW CAPE, HIGH SHEAR & GENERALLY WELL ORGANISED. MAIN RISKS LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, LOCALISED HAIL & GUSTY WINDS. VERY LOW RISK 2% OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

Air aloft cools on Sunday and under day-time heating lapse rates will steepen and heavy showers and thunderstorms will break out. Upper forcing from a strong jet profile will enhance wind shear and some of storms will become well organised multi-cell. CAPE is generally low limiting the risk of more severe aspects to convection, nevertheless isolated incidences of marginally severe thunderstorms is a possibility, especially across the Midlands/Lincs and across into North East England.

As is the nature with storms many places will remain dry and not experience storms.

Also during Sunday a plume will become engaged across the near continent moving up from France into the Benelux. The Western periphery of this plume is expected to bring excessive rainfall to many parts of East Anglia, The London area, Sussex and Kent. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible, with the risk of the very edge of the elevated plume skirting Sussex and Kent bringing more intense lightning possibilities.

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UK Weather Scientific's forecast for tomorrow:

 

attachicon.gif11139352_817925314994038_420114403274300398_n.png

 

ENHANCED RISK of THUNDERSTORMS for Sun 5th July from 10:00 until 22:00: ENGLAND, SCOTLAND & WALES. STORMS LOW CAPE, HIGH SHEAR & GENERALLY WELL ORGANISED. MAIN RISKS LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, LOCALISED HAIL & GUSTY WINDS. VERY LOW RISK 2% OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.Air aloft cools on Sunday and under day-time heating lapse rates will steepen and heavy showers and thunderstorms will break out. Upper forcing from a strong jet profile will enhance wind shear and some of storms will become well organised multi-cell. CAPE is generally low limiting the risk of more severe aspects to convection, nevertheless isolated incidences of marginally severe thunderstorms is a possibility, especially across the Midlands/Lincs and across into North East England.

As is the nature with storms many places will remain dry and not experience storms.

Also during Sunday a plume will become engaged across the near continent moving up from France into the Benelux. The Western periphery of this plume is expected to bring excessive rainfall to many parts of East Anglia, The London area, Sussex and Kent. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible, with the risk of the very edge of the elevated plume skirting Sussex and Kent bringing more intense lightning possibilities.

Mini plum! Just popped up out the blue! NMM projections for the south look nasty

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I'm building "The Stormcatcher"!

It's a container for my two older iPhones - one mounted landscape and one mounted portrait - which also protects them from rain and allows me to hold it out the window and point at the sweet-spot of storms!

My plan is to have one shooting standard video and the other shooting on slo-mo.

It's also going to have a way to mount it on a surface and adjust the angle to free up my hands for using my SLR cams :-D

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Slap bang between moderate risk and slight risk... we'll see but not getting my hopes up for anything much tomorrow although a couple of rumbles would be cool!

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PWAT values quite high for the SE, indicating some heavy rain, other than that, not a lot!

 

Further West and North looking favourable for those showers to contain some lightning, moderately cold ELT's for hail production.

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Lightning animation map: http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php?bo_page=archive&bo_hour_range=7&bo_oldmap=6&bo_oldani=1&bo_map=6&bo_year=2015&bo_month=7&bo_day=3&bo_hour_from=21&bo_hour_range=10&bo_animation=now#bo_arch_strikes_maps_form

 

Difference between last night's storms and Wednesday's storms is that last night's affected millions of people. Wednesday's supercells, while amazing, trundled through some very sparsely populated areas of the country. I mean, how often do you see a line of storms 200 miles long moving through the UK?

the one on wedenesday also trundled across gtr manchester, with a population into the millions,  wigan, bolton bury trafford etc , the city itself, then went on to pester yorkshire

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Icon model suggests tomorrow's showers could be quite thundery. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=10&map=1&archive=0

Go to the temps sensible link and the yellow areas are supposedly thundery.

My favoured areas for tomorrow are probably around Aberystwyth and probably around Cheshire (and maybe Shropshire too!)

Reasonable chance for much of the west midlands too especially west of Birmingham/Coventry.

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Tomorrow is looking good for some storms in the SW, West and Central

 

SE looks like it has some potential for larger amounts of rain, however potential for thunder looks lower.

 

With lifted of around -2 and cape values around 600-700 range for the west and midlands, There could be some good looking cells popping up just after midday.

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Here are a few screengrabs of one Cg i filmed early this morning,and i have got to tell you that i didn't realise it was that close and struck three times in the same place :shok:

 

post-16960-0-40807600-1436039407_thumb.ppost-16960-0-70530400-1436039424_thumb.ppost-16960-0-76827200-1436039460_thumb.ppost-16960-0-49559100-1436039467_thumb.ppost-16960-0-27656500-1436039489_thumb.ppost-16960-0-22935800-1436039506_thumb.ppost-16960-0-99950900-1436039550_thumb.p

 

uploading the vid now which is 10 mins long so have to wait a couple of hours :D

 

and another Cg but further away

post-16960-0-13803300-1436039599_thumb.p

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Mate is that a bit of it right in front of you on the second image?! :o

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