Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

38.7°C

European Heatwave

Recommended Posts

Ive heard Europe is heading towards a severe heatwave this summer similar to 2003.  Can anyone confirm if its true or not.   thanks 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure where you are reading this, but IMO there's a good chance that something similar could occur, after all, the start of July has already been one of the warmest on record across Europe, and there's no real sign of it abating either, so something like a 2003 is certainly possible, hopefully Europe is better prepared than it was in '03 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is certainly the best chance we've had since 2006 of getting a prolonged heatwave due to severe heat on the continent. How much of that heat comes to us is solely dependent on the pressure system and whether we escape a Atlantic encroach. 

 

When talking about a possible heatwave I would rather refer to 2006 than 2003. Although 2003 obviously recorded the highest UK temperature, it wasn't anywhere close in terms of longevity and stability as July 2006 was. 

 

To record the temperature we did last Wednesday is quite freak due to virtually no prior warming, and the prospect of us getting a similar plume in August is frankly mouthwatering, 40c would definitely be broken. I would dare say we would have been close to 45c if that plume had come a month later with a little warming from July beforehand. 

 

I would say that this month will certainly see further warm weather, with short plumes occasionally bringing hot weather, but I would be dubious to say we are likely to get a 2006/1976 repeat. The pressure system doesn't seem the same as it was then and any highs aren't strong enough in my opinion. 

 

Let's hope we do see another 2006 though, and as aforementioned, it's are best chance since that year. Just need the Azores high and winds to play ball. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

you guys forgot already the 2 very hot summers that just past the previous 2 years?

 

also I am really interested in why people want 40C temperatures? it just makes everything miserable, death risk, sweat etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

you guys forgot already the 2 very hot summers that just past the previous 2 years?

 

also I am really interested in why people want 40C temperatures? it just makes everything miserable, death risk, sweat etc.

 

They did both feature a good July but hardly akin to July 2006. 2013 was close though.

 

And 2013 and 14 respectively had fairly poor June's and dire Augusts. July 06 was the last truly great heatwave.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Heatwave
Criteria: At least five consecutive days with temperatures at least 5°C above average.

London


2015

London started July 2015 with a mini-heatwave. The temperatures would not qualify as a heatwave, although a record was met on one day. It is far too early to predict a main heatwave at some point this summer.

 

Mini-Heatwave
The average within the following time period is: 22°C

 

Jun/29: 26°C

Jun/30: 30°C

Jul/01: 37°C ®

Jul/02: 26°C

Jul/03: 27°C

Jul/04: 27°C

 

2006
London actually had a less severe heatwave to begin July 2006. The main heatwave was technically 14 days long - with only one day not qualifying as heatwave standard, but still 3°C above average.
 

Pre-Heatwave

The average within the following time period is: 22°C

 

Jun/29: 25°C

Jun/30: 28°C

Jul/01: 29°C

Jul/02: 31°C

Jul/03: 30°C

Jul/04: 30°C (H)

Jul/05: 23°C

 

Main Heatwave

The average within the following time period is: 23°C

 

Jul/15: 25°C
Jul/16: 30°C
Jul/17: 31°C
Jul/18: 32°C
Jul/19: 35°C
Jul/20: 30°C (H)
Jul/21: 31°C (H)
Jul/22: 29°C (H)

Jul/23: 26°C
Jul/24: 29°C
Jul/25: 32°C
Jul/26: 32°C
Jul/27: 28°C
Jul/28: 28°C (H)

Jul/29: 26°C
Jul/30: 25°C

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

you guys forgot already the 2 very hot summers that just past the previous 2 years?

 

also I am really interested in why people want 40C temperatures? it just makes everything miserable, death risk, sweat etc.

 

Heatwaves are infact bad weather, yet people get excited when ones forecast, they think "wow sun, barbecues & ice cream". They don't realise the unbearable humidity that comes with them.  

 

I would love to see 40C reached here, if im not going to prepare for it when its forecast then thats my own fault nobody elses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed, some of them were actually technically droughts but the media and loads of people were calling it "pleasant".

 

Countries that have that type of weather for long periods of time have big problems, in america its common for people to have fitted air conditioning and africa with its vast deserts isnt so nice either.

 

Friend of mine manages a large farm in america, and in the summer they have lots of livestock been killed by the heat, when the temps stay at over 90F for weeks on end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

you guys forgot already the 2 very hot summers that just past the previous 2 years?

 

also I am really interested in why people want 40C temperatures? it just makes everything miserable, death risk, sweat etc.

We have not had 2 very hot summers; we had a couple of hot weeks in July both years. The rest of each summer was pretty crap, cloudy and chilly.

I'd like to see a 40C reached in the UK purely for an interest in extremes, I doubt I'd really enjoy it lol, though I'd MUCH prefer it to cloudy and 17C, for sure. Same goes for extreme cold, which is far more damaging and deadly IMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Germany has a new temperature record, 40,3c

 

And boy did we feel it! Quite a weekend of heat that was, never felt anything like it. Gladly this city is surrounded in lakes so perfect for cooling off!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have not had 2 very hot summers; we had a couple of hot weeks in July both years. The rest of each summer was pretty crap, cloudy and chilly.

I'd like to see a 40C reached in the UK purely for an interest in extremes, I doubt I'd really enjoy it lol, though I'd MUCH prefer it to cloudy and 17C, for sure. Same goes for extreme cold, which is far more damaging and deadly IMHO.

 

I'd say extreme cold and heat are about as deadly as each other. But at least with severe cold, in this country you can escape into a heated home or wrap up well. Whereas with extreme heat, very few people have air conditioning so can't escape it.

 

The August 2003 heatwave saw tens of thousands of deaths across Europe. I'm not sure how cold spells compare but I'd be surprised if it was that high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is certainly the best chance we've had since 2006 of getting a prolonged heatwave due to severe heat on the continent. How much of that heat comes to us is solely dependent on the pressure system and whether we escape a Atlantic encroach. 

 

When talking about a possible heatwave I would rather refer to 2006 than 2003. Although 2003 obviously recorded the highest UK temperature, it wasn't anywhere close in terms of longevity and stability as July 2006 was. 

 

To record the temperature we did last Wednesday is quite freak due to virtually no prior warming, and the prospect of us getting a similar plume in August is frankly mouthwatering, 40c would definitely be broken. I would dare say we would have been close to 45c if that plume had come a month later with a little warming from July beforehand. 

 

I would say that this month will certainly see further warm weather, with short plumes occasionally bringing hot weather, but I would be dubious to say we are likely to get a 2006/1976 repeat. The pressure system doesn't seem the same as it was then and any highs aren't strong enough in my opinion. 

 

Let's hope we do see another 2006 though, and as aforementioned, it's are best chance since that year. Just need the Azores high and winds to play ball.

45c lol. Now that would take some doing! Would be like a 1/200,000 chance of it occurring I'd say though.

Sea temps would need to be high enough, uppers would need to be 20c plus for a few days at least and wind direction would need to be slack and continuously S/SE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Considering that France hasn't even managed 45c before, I'd put the chance of us seeing that as virtually nil.

 

Even 40c would be a big ask.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I arrive just in time to wave farewell to the heat in Switzerland, 26C at 4000ft and 20C at 8000ft when I arrive tomorrow afternoon. Walking at 8000ft the next day, cloudy rain at times and 10C at best!

Be like the Peak District only steeper!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

45c lol. Now that would take some doing! Would be like a 1/200,000 chance of it occurring I'd say though.

Sea temps would need to be high enough, uppers would need to be 20c plus for a few days at least and wind direction would need to be slack and continuously S/SE.

 

 

 you'd think after the freezing cold June and that constant NW'ly one would never have known in just a few days time we'd be taking a swipe at the record 38.5C. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Considering that France hasn't even managed 45c before, I'd put the chance of us seeing that as virtually nil.

Even 40c would be a big ask.

Yeah, 45C is extremely warm, even in the hottest places on earth. I'd say such a temperature in the UK is actually impossible, considering continental Germany on a similar latitude to us has only scraped past 40C.

45C is about the average summer high in Furnace Creek, California - the place that recorded the official world record high temperature and is probably the warmest place on earth for summer maxima.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furnace_Creek,_California

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, 45C is extremely warm, even in the hottest places on earth. I'd say such a temperature in the UK is actually impossible, considering continental Germany on a similar latitude to us has only scraped past 40C.

45C is about the average summer high in Furnace Creek, California - the place that recorded the official world record high temperature and is probably the warmest place on earth for summer maxima.

 

Agreed. Even accounting for a warming climate I'd say it will never be reached.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Beleive me you do not want temperatures of 40c, let alone 45c. Even with aircon everywhere you can't do much. In the summer everyone here leaves or hibernates

I'm hoping for "normal" temperatures next week when I go to France. Maybe even some rain...mmmmmmmm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, 45C is extremely warm, even in the hottest places on earth. I'd say such a temperature in the UK is actually impossible, considering continental Germany on a similar latitude to us has only scraped past 40C.

45C is about the average summer high in Furnace Creek, California - the place that recorded the official world record high temperature and is probably the warmest place on earth for summer maxima.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furnace_Creek,_California

ive stayed there and yes it's unbelievably hot !!!.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...