Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Nick123]

I am trying to access the MetO website and it keeps coming up as a download....anyone else have this problem?

 

Yes. When I was trying to access it earlier my computer wanted to run security scans and it wouldn't let me in...

 

[Harry]

 

I am trying to access the MetO website and it keeps coming up as a download....anyone else have this problem?

 

Yes. When I was trying to access it earlier my computer wanted to run security scans and it wouldn't let me in...

 

 

 

Not just me then...that's good to know  

 

It works fine on my iPad but it has obviously offended my laptop!

[Nick123]

Not just me then...that's good to know

 

It works fine on my iPad but it has obviously offended my laptop!

yeah worked on my iPhone fine also... I restarted my laptop and it was fine.. weird

[NO LONGER POSTING]

MET OFFICE WEBSITE IS BUGGED!!!

[Dami]

MET OFFICE WEBSITE IS BUGGED!!!

Yes i know, it says i might get a storm in the next few days.

 

(sorry)

[Paul Sherman]

I am not an expert but it does look like an area from Eastern Wales across to Lincs could get a stronger thunderstorm if any cloud breaks appear and the crud in the channel spins away towards Benelux, obviously if cloud spill north through the bulk of the Uk and stops insolation then probably game over, very low end risk but always a chance of something a little bit more pokey late afternoon and evening in a very slim sausage shaped area bounded by Shrops, Worcs in the west and Lincs to Northants in the East.

 

Nice cold rain for the gardens down here with maybe a cloud fart or two

 

All going as planned from latest Meto Warnings 

 

Although the rain in the South barely wetted the pavements.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yes i know, it says i might get a storm in the next few days.

 

(sorry)

 

Eveytime I click onto it, im getting files downloading onto the computer.. 

 

All good things come to those that wait 

Edited July 2, 2015 by Surrey

[Nick123]

Eveytime I click onto it, im getting files downloading onto the computer.. 

 

All good things come to those that wait 

restart your computer, it should work then

[Chris K]

Not confident regarding tomorow's prospects from an IMBY perspective. The problem is winds aloft are modelled to flow in a NE direction. This will mean any elevated storms that make it across the channel will most likely track on a more N/NE path again. Main core of instability remains predominantly in the SE quarter, so areas further West likely to get a glancing blow at best with any precipitation less likely to be thundery in nature.

 

It is like the hot spell never happened here in Bristol today. Fresher and grey skies weeing down on us, with a typical glancing plume chance to come tomorrow

 

Won't hold my breath but we'll see... I think some C/S and SE areas should be positive at least and of course with a new warning out by the MetO...potential for some of the NE again tonight!

Edited July 2, 2015 by Chris K

[Dami]

Eveytime I click onto it, im getting files downloading onto the computer.. 

 

All good things come to those that wait 

Not noticed that, but it can't be good. I know they had a maintenance a little way back. I'd be careful with that file download. 

[Mapantz]

MetO site working ok on my laptop.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Sun is beginning to break through now. Let's hope it can kick something off.

[Harry]

Not confident regarding tomorow's prospects from an IMBY perspective. The problem is winds aloft are modelled to flow in a NE direction. This will mean any elevated storms that make it across the channel will most likely track on a more N/NE path again. Main core of instability remains predominantly in the SE quarter, so areas further West likely to get a glancing blow at best with any precipitation less likely to be thundery in nature.

 

It is like the hot spell never happened here in Bristol today. Fresher and grey skies weeing down on us, with a typical glancing plume chance to come tomorrow

 

Won't hold my breath but we'll see... I think some C/S and SE areas should be positive at least and of course with a new warning out by the MetO...potential for some of the NE again tonight!

Channel won't be a problem - it's how far the unstable air migrates from the continent that will be key. MetO have a fat trough wedged behind the warm front tomorrow night, so chances are developments could be over our shores as well as potentially imported

[Summer Sun]

Warnings out for the next 3 days

 

Issued at: 1226 on Thu 2 Jul 2015

Valid from: 1400 on Thu 2 Jul 2015

Valid to: 2100 on Thu 2 Jul 2015

 

A band of heavy rain and thunderstorms is expected to move northeastwards this afternoon and evening. This may produce locally very intense rainfall rates over a brief period of time, with hail, lightning and gusty winds additional hazards. The public should be aware of the potential for some very localised significant disruption due to a combination of these elements.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An active cold front moving northeastwards will become unstable as it encounters warm, moist air ahead of it. This is likely to lead to some heavy rain and thunderstorms, perhaps forming a narrow band which moves northeastwards across NE Wales, the north Midlands and northern England this afternoon and evening, clearing northeast England towards dusk. Whilst not lasting for very long in any given place, rainfall is likely to be briefly very intense with hail, locally combining with lightning and gusty winds to lead to disruption, especially where this coincides with this evening's busy travel period.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1435791600&regionName=uk

 

Issued at: 1014 on Thu 2 Jul 2015

Valid from: 1900 on Fri 3 Jul 2015

Valid to: 1200 on Sat 4 Jul 2015

 

Isolated heavy, and possibly severe, thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday evening across parts of England and Wales. These are likely to become more frequent later and spread northwards towards southern Scotland. Some torrential downpours are possible leading to localised surface water flooding, with large hail and frequent lightning also possible hazards. The public should be aware that there is a chance of some very localised significant disruption

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

On Friday evening another hot and increasingly humid airmass is expected to spread into the south from the Continent. This airmass looks conducive to the development of isolated thunderstorms during the evening across England and Wales which could become more frequent later in the night as they spread northwards towards Scotland. With large amounts of energy again available in this atmosphere storms could be severe, with torrential downpours and large hail. 30 mm of rain is possible in less than an hour, with as much as 50 mm possible in 3 hours very locally. Large uncertainty remains regarding areas most at risk from storms, and many areas will miss these altogether, staying largely dry. However, where they do develop, disruption is possible.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1435878000&regionName=uk

[pip22]

The Thunderstorm of the coast of the Netherlands is huge!!!

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

[Arnie Pie]

Still & muggy in Birmingham with the temp rising.....priming nicely for the arrival of the "apocalyptic" squall line later on

[Daniel*]

Not even a Kent clipper the only things it's clipping away is my patience.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Not even a Kent clipper the only things it's clipping away is my patience.

image.jpg

Said last night it would be a Kent clipper at best!

Maybe if I put my mortgage on it in future, we would see it batter the UK!!

Edited July 2, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Chris K]

Channel won't be a problem - it's how far the unstable air migrates from the continent that will be key. MetO have a fat trough wedged behind the warm front tomorrow night, so chances are developments could be over our shores as well as potentially imported

 

No sorry I didn't mean the channel would kill them off - moreso that the best amounts of instability are (currently) focused more for the SE quarter with storms more likely to head on a more NE'erly path if they are elevated in nature.

 

Met Office seem to want to send them on a more northerly path though before the shunt NE, unless the warning is more focused on the amount of precipitation likely. Knife edge as always.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Chris K

[UKSupercell]

Eveytime I click onto it, im getting files downloading onto the computer.. 

 

All good things come to those that wait 

 

Is this something metoffice-related? I was on their website the other week and went to a blog link or something and it was asking me to save a file. Bit odd. 

As for today: I predicted this one right. I said last night that we would get sweet FA in central southern England and that Kent would see all the action. 

Tomorrow looks more promising, I guess. 

[Wet'n'Dry]

That's odd, I'm hearing lightning strikes on my MW radio but nothing on radar?

I know my radio only has a reception range of ~20 miles so what's going on down in Kent I wonder?

[Nick123]

Said last night it would be a Kent clipper at best!

Maybe if I put my mortgage on it in future, we would see it batter the UK!!

Nice one, I saw your post last night and thought (hoped) you would be wrong, as I thought it was headed straight for MBY, but you called it dead right *thumbs up*

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en

 

Most active storm in the world? Well that's easy.. It's sitting of the coast of Kent.. Where else would it be? LMFAO

[Harry]

Mass divergence between different NMM models now for tomorrow....both 06z runs but with immensely different outcomes...the Beeb favouring the western option on their latest online forecast...

 

And just to rub salt in the wound, sun out here and temperature and humidity rocketing after this mornings rain drops.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Harry

[Evening thunder]

Not even a Kent clipper the only things it's clipping away is my patience.

image.jpg

 

I guess at least most of those across the channel are also frustrated about the storms mainly being at sea..

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en

 

Most active storm in the world? Well that's easy.. It's sitting of the coast of Kent.. Where else would it be? LMFAO

 

Haha of course, although the global view can be a tad misleading as it only really has good coverage for Europe and the USA, there's probably a load of lightning in the tropics

Edited July 2, 2015 by Evening thunder