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Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes


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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Just seen the beaut Carol Kirkwood's forecast, must say it was nearly as beautiful as herself :p !

Anyway! Looking good pretty much from SW, Central Southern England Northwards and Eastwards from there. With the most juice in the SE, I'm not ruling out a real corker perhaps affecting Kent into Essex and East Anglia.

Oh dear, you've made the fatal mistake of watching Carol K's forecast with the 'H' word....that's you and William not getting a storm then...lol
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I thought Carol Kirkwood's forecast's were always the nail in the coffin for this type of weather or hasn't she mention the dreaded H word yet ?

 

she mentioned it the other day, at wimbledon, tuesday think it was, for north UK

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Permission to scream....YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYY!!!!!  :yahoo: 

 

Lol.....

 

Not counting my chickens OBVIOUSLY....getting the feeling, both from the latest precip forecast being churned out by UKMO, but also NMM, that my patch may be a breeding ground for some awesomeness north and northeast of London.

 

Haha! the Met Office charts are certainly looking more promising than the BBC for the SE, one can hope they are close to the mark. I have seen them be pretty accurate before.. but on the other hand also pretty wide of the mark.

I'm hopeful for something relatively near my location but I have the same feeling about the best further north/NE, I may head that way tonight to get a better chance. 

I am certainly not in favour of this update, but the Met Office are pretty inaccurate when it comes to storms so I shall see if the storms do decide to turn against me and go to the North, West and East of my region.

 

Ahh that would be typical, I'm pretty used to such occurrences lol. However as you say I wouldn't worry too much based on the detail of any charts like these.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

Well the precip forecast on the met office looks promising for my area. Looking forward to this evening even if it is a bit of a headache, will get the beers in later and hope for a good show.

Edited by John Hodgson
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Posted
  • Location: Church Gresley (nr swadlincote)
  • Location: Church Gresley (nr swadlincote)

squib kev damp squib ;)

But surely squids are damp too 😠its been a long week and I'm storm starved.
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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

BBC are still going with storms to the west of IOW heading northwards, my highly inaccurate weather app on iPod has gone as high as 90% chance for storms tonight. :O

 

Sky going with the BBC too

Edited by tomp456
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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: calm and cold (im brontophobic)
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

It's gunna be like the apocalypse here tonight, I base that on the scientific analysis of the forecasters dodging my location and everyone in the West getting excited and gagging for a monster storm and I'm sitting here begging the Lord to let it dodge me. That means it's coming for me on the South East coast, probably at 9pm when I have to walk home from work, and with my luck, u guys can take that as gospel haha!

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Posted
  • Location: 6 miles west of Manchester 50m asl
  • Location: 6 miles west of Manchester 50m asl

My vid of the Manchester storm on Wads.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Have you got any idea how enormously complex trying to predict? first of all is the atmosphere at any particular time in any particular place, able to produce a thunderstorm let alone will it be slight or severe. Think how often a rainfall forecast of only 12 hours away can be wrong in timing and placing as well as intensity. Think about how difficult it is to get will it rain or snow correct. In my view the forecasts from UK Met over the past 2-3 days of intense heat, humidity and storms have been pretty good but that is just my opinion. All I ask is that you do think hard about how hugely complex it is trying to predict what the atmosphere will do a few hours ahead let alone further out. A fascinating 'ology' though.

 

To be fair, JH - I think Surrey may have commenting tongue in cheek...he hasn't struck me as much of a Met basher. But everything you say is absolutely true...its the butterfly effect in a nutshell really - if a maggot farts in Kent this morning, could be the cause of the drop of an EF2 tornado on Dudley this evening :D

 

I think generally people do not fully appreciate or think about the complexities of the weather and why it will always be almost possible to predict. For example...

 

Area of the UK is approximately 93,800 sq, metres - approx 50,000 ft of atmosphere above...that equates to a volume of air of (rounded) 1.4 BILLION cubic metres. So, just to measure and chart the air, in place, at one point in time, we would need enough instruments to accurately measure 1.4 billion cubic metres of air. Factoring in the fact that air moves, temperature and humidity changes depending on whether the sun is out or not over any given inch of land/sea, which in turn affects temperature, which in turn affects pressure...one starts to (hopefully) manage to contemplate the complexity some what. All of that is meaningless without human interpretation (i.e telling computers what they should make of all that billions and billions of square feet of data) which is, as we know, flawed as we don't understand the weather fully.

 

Hopefully that helps expand your point JH :D

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

It's gunna be like the apocalypse here tonight, I base that on the scientific analysis of the forecasters dodging my location and everyone in the West getting excited and gagging for a monster storm and I'm sitting here begging the Lord to let it dodge me. That means it's coming for me on the South East coast, probably at 9pm when I have to walk home from work, and with my luck, u guys can take that as gospel haha!

Let's hope so!  :D hehe

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

I hate to dread later if nothing happens can you imagine this place  :rofl:

 

it would make Syria look like a picnic

To be fair, JH - I think Surrey may have commenting tongue in cheek...he hasn't struck me as much of a Met basher. But everything you say is absolutely true...its the butterfly effect in a nutshell really - if a maggot farts in Kent this morning, could be the cause of the drop of an EF2 tornado on Dudley this evening :D

 

I think generally people do not fully appreciate or think about the complexities of the weather and why it will always be almost possible to predict. For example...

 

Area of the UK is approximately 93,800 sq, metres - approx 50,000 ft of atmosphere above...that equates to a volume of air of (rounded) 1.4 BILLION cubic metres. So, just to measure and chart the air, in place, at one point in time, we would need enough instruments to accurately measure 1.4 billion cubic metres of air. Factoring in the fact that air moves, temperature and humidity changes depending on whether the sun is out or not over any given inch of land/sea, which in turn affects temperature, which in turn affects pressure...one starts to (hopefully) manage to contemplate the complexity some what. All of that is meaningless without human interpretation (i.e telling computers what they should make of all that billions and billions of square feet of data) which is, as we know, flawed as we don't understand the weather fully.

 

Hopefully that helps expand your point JH :D

 

after reading that I'm off to lie down

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Posted
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk

what i don't understand why would storms break out in area's that have lower cape and instability? if BBC forecast is to be correct.

 

Surely the main area's would CS England and the SE. Good to see that i'm under the level 1 for severe on Estofex and they have been pretty much spot on.

 

hopefully it's like storms in the 90's hot day, then severe storms by evening.

Edited by thunderhead 2005
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

onwards and upwards as they say......Bring on the storms! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Please remember also the BBC Will be using out of date data sets when these recorded bulletins go out, so the ones in the last hour were probably using 18z data from last night, unfortuntaley the weather is not upto date in this country never will be and so a forecast is usually as worthless with things changing by the second, dont hang on every forecast you see as its probably out of date already

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

morning all, well here is to a day of radar watching, reading peoples views on where the most likely areas for storms are, which i hope will include here, lol, although met office forecast is for just rain here, i might get the camera ready for later in the hope though, stay safe everyone

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

@ supacell

Are you rating the chances for our area? The last bbc forecast that I watched last night, seemed to me to be a bit of a damp squid for us with most of the heavier stuff out to the west across the welsh borders, Shrewsbury area tracking north, with just rain over us and not alot of anything really further east.

 

I do rate our area tonight to see something. My concern is whether it will be big intense thunderstorms or just an area of thundery rain. There is plenty of elevated instability, deep layer shear and most models this morning do show our area under some heavy precipitation. Watch this mornings forecast, a nice yellow blob across our region :)

 

Of course taking the blobs literally is rather futile, but it is looking good.

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

what i don't understand why would storms break out in area's that have lower cape and instability? if BBC forecast is to be correct.

 

Surely the main area's would CS England and the SE. Good to see that i'm under the level 1 for severe on Estofex and they have been pretty much spot on.

 

hopefully it's like storms in the 90's hot day, then severe storms by evening.

More of a cap in place across the SE, with stronger CIN. With the trough moving through, I would still expect eroding of the cap that they're saying will possibly inhibit storms breaking out.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

doesn't look like much happening until the overnight period for most and for much of england and wales it will gone by the time most are up in the morning

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

More of a cap in place across the SE, with stronger CIN. With the trough moving through, I would still expect eroding of the cap that they're saying will possibly inhibit storms breaking out.

I hate CIN, it's been doing my head in for days now. Still if it doesn't brake the cap here at least I had a couple of distant rumbles yesterday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Tony Gilbert on UKWW saying cloud tops of up to 40,000ft and cooling to -63c!!! That is going to produce some serious lightning!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I think that for us in the SE, the plume has been too perfect, with all the action floating around the periphery?

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Just a quickie for newbies etc who are trying to find a handle on how this set-up is setting up

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/29496-guide-to-uk-thunderstorms-setups/

 

Just read down to the Spanish Plume section on there that Nick put together, charts tonight are close to the Loaded Gun scenario with DTA (differential thermal advection) fuelling the storms tonight, which means the Channel WONT KILL them off  :D

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Posted
  • Location: Redcar, Cleveland
  • Location: Redcar, Cleveland

Hoping for an interesting day today, even if I get nothing directly I'll enjoy monitoring how anything developes elsewhere.

 

I'm relucantly hoping for it to have buggered off tomorrow morning though because we need to travel on the railway. I know the general view is that travel need not be necessary when things get nasty, but it's my mother's 80th tomorrow, they don't come around again!

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