Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[BlueHedgehog074]

Thanks mate. I am thinking I will stay put as would be more gutted if I spent petrol money and drove for hours to the SE to find nothing and Derby got hit than if I stayed at home and missed it further SE. Local Radio talking of torrential rain and large hailstones across here this evening so they don't seem to be going with the "thundery rain" idea, more severe thunderstorms.

Think that's the best thing to do to be honest. You'll probably just find just as you leave to journey further South-East, the best storm of the millennium will be about to slam into Derby (lol).

[DanN]

Now GFS has abandoned me ....noooooooooooo!!!!

 

Modellzentrale's 4KM looks better for the south east, though if you follow that model closely it can get a little excitable with convection at times. Doesn't mean its necessarily wrong this time, but I guess we will find out later!

 

The ManUniCast model would be worth checking when it rolls out.

Edited July 3, 2015 by DanN

[Cableguy]

I guess the only good thing is that the majority of these storms are going to be home grown rather than imported(didnt realise that until last night!!) So could literally pop up anywhere so im trying not to get caught up too much in the map graphics today and will just wait and see.

[William Grimsley]

I have fallen in love with Carol Kirkwood's forecast this morning, thunderstorms going straight for me this evening! If that is correct, we could be having a similar thunderstorm to back in September when most of you remember me saying I had experienced the best thunderstorm ever. Exciting!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Incidentally, Euro4 holding strong with no precip at all across the SE quarter.

I'm trying to cast my mind back to last year - think it was 17th July (the day before El Shelfo across most of the SE) when the BBC forecast and UKMO forecast both ruled out storm risk across the SE (favouring SW and W), then being woken at 1-2 am by my beloved telling me there was thunderstorms.

Think I'll have a gander at those Synoptics later to see if there are any similarities.

17th July was a cracker across Bristol, hopefully we're seeing something widespread across the whole of the south tonight!

[richep]

Looking good for Somerset tonight if it all goes to plan. This happened the other week mind

[kev f]

@ supacell

Are you rating the chances for our area? The last bbc forecast that I watched last night, seemed to me to be a bit of a damp squid for us with most of the heavier stuff out to the west across the welsh borders, Shrewsbury area tracking north, with just rain over us and not alot of anything really further east.

[Harry]

I will say this - in my experience home growns are more exciting than imports (although I hasten to add I have witnessed awe inspiring imports). But you can't beat watching an exploding Cb - makes for stunning photography and videos, as we saw this week

[Evening thunder]

Lastest UKMO precip charts breaks out storms for the London area. The previous one left me feeling I was in an ok position based on that, and would drift north/west a little.. The latest I'd stay put or maybe go NE a little but is decent for here.. hard to tell and of course I probably won't know until storms fire, which may almost be too late. 

 

Previous: 

 

Latest: 

 

Both these charts are fore 1am.

 

The Met Office text forecast for the SE also mentions scattered thunderstorms breaking out.. so as ever we shall see.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Biggin]

@ supacell

Are you rating the chances for our area? The last bbc forecast that I watched last night, seemed to me to be a bit of a damp squid for us with most of the heavier stuff out to the west across the welsh borders, Shrewsbury area tracking north, with just rain over us and not alot of anything really further east.

squib kev damp squib

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I will say this - in my experience home growns are more exciting than imports (although I hasten to add I have witnessed awe inspiring imports). But you can't beat watching an exploding Cb - makes for stunning photography and videos, as we saw this week

 

See I favour imports over homegrown.. 

 

Being in the South east unless the storms are moving south there is not much Land for the storms to generate over.

 

Where as you import if it makes it across the channel, elevated enough even in North surrey I can see the lightning moving in.

 

I need to urge people to take a bit a big table spoon of salt with any charts, BBC forecasts and so on. 

 

With BBC, Met office, Estofax, GFS,NNM, so on ALL in disagreement it's not a normal game this one.

 

Ill have a punt at it though looking at this morning.

 

SW  = Storm chance 70% severe storms 20% (of which)

Wales = Storm chance 70% severe storms 10% "

Midlands = Storm chance 60% severe storms 25% "

North England = Storm chance 45% severe storms 10% "

South east = Storm chance 50% severe storms 40% "

Edited July 3, 2015 by Surrey

[Snowshine]

I really hope the storms head further East than the latest BBC forecast says so. It makes no sense though - all the warnings are for the South and South East of the reigon (e.g. Estofex)

[Gordon Webb]

yep some disagreement even this close and if they fire they are not going to hang around by southen scotland by dawn

 

 

 

estofex doesn;t really paint a nasty picture unlike they did for wednesday and the BBC has the worst for SW wales moving north so not a clear picture even now

 

edit - not sure how good these charts are first time looking and posting so forgive if they are a load of rubbish

Edited July 3, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I really hope the storms head further East than the latest BBC forecast says so. It makes no sense though - all the warnings are for the South and South East of the reigon (e.g. Estofex)

 

It depends what models people prefer and what hit rate they have..

 

Its clear that Estofax favor the idea the GFS is going down. (Given they are thunderstorm and convective experts im not knocking them)

 

Where as of course the BBC met office going with the more western idea.. (Agin met office a global weather source what makes them right/wrong)

 

The best bit.. The tax payer funding millions of super computers etc at the met office and investing heavily in our forecasting etc and we can't predict a thunderstorm 12 hours out.. 

[Mark Parsons]

I have fallen in love with Carol Kirkwood's forecast this morning, thunderstorms going straight for me this evening! If that is correct, we could be having a similar thunderstorm to back in September when most of you remember me saying I had experienced the best thunderstorm ever. Exciting!

Don't fall in to that trap matey it's not a done deal until it happens, those BBC graphics aren't to be trusted they are seldom correct and are only a guide to what MAY happen!!

[Marcus_surfer]

That is some exploding towering cloud just to the west of biscay looking at sat 24 surprised there's no lightning yet

[Harry]

Lastest UKMO precip charts breaks out storms for the London area. The previous one left me feeling I was in an ok position based on that, and would drift north/west a little.. The latest I'd stay put or maybe go NE a little but is decent for here.. hard to tell and of course I probably won't know until storms fire, which may almost be too late. 

 

Previous: UKMO precip 1.png

 

Latest: UKMO precip 2.png

 

Both these charts are fore 1am.

 

The Met Office text forecast for the SE also mentions scattered thunderstorms breaking out.. so as ever we shall see.

 

Permission to scream....YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYY!!!!!   

 

Lol.....

 

Not counting my chickens OBVIOUSLY....getting the feeling, both from the latest precip forecast being churned out by UKMO, but also NMM, that my patch may be a breeding ground for some awesomeness north and northeast of London.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Harry

[Gordon Webb]

Don't fall in to that trap matey it's not a done deal until it happens, those BBC graphics aren't to be trusted they are seldom correct and are only a guide to what MAY happen!!

 

or may not happen

[johnholmes]

 

The best bit.. The tax payer funding millions of super computers etc at the met office and investing heavily in our forecasting etc and we can't predict a thunderstorm 12 hours out.. 

Have you got any idea how enormously complex trying to predict? first of all is the atmosphere at any particular time in any particular place, able to produce a thunderstorm let alone will it be slight or severe. Think how often a rainfall forecast of only 12 hours away can be wrong in timing and placing as well as intensity. Think about how difficult it is to get will it rain or snow correct. In my view the forecasts from UK Met over the past 2-3 days of intense heat, humidity and storms have been pretty good but that is just my opinion. All I ask is that you do think hard about how hugely complex it is trying to predict what the atmosphere will do a few hours ahead let alone further out. A fascinating 'ology' though.

Edited July 3, 2015 by johnholmes

[Snowshine]

Lastest UKMO precip charts breaks out storms for the London area. The previous one left me feeling I was in an ok position based on that, and would drift north/west a little.. The latest I'd stay put or maybe go NE a little but is decent for here.. hard to tell and of course I probably won't know until storms fire, which may almost be too late. 

 

Previous: UKMO precip 1.png

 

Latest: UKMO precip 2.png

 

Both these charts are fore 1am.

 

The Met Office text forecast for the SE also mentions scattered thunderstorms breaking out.. so as ever we shall see.

I am certainly not in favour of this update, but the Met Office are pretty inaccurate when it comes to storms so I shall see if the storms do decide to turn against me and go to the North, West and East of my region.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I have fallen in love with Carol Kirkwood's forecast this morning, thunderstorms going straight for me this evening! If that is correct, we could be having a similar thunderstorm to back in September when most of you remember me saying I had experienced the best thunderstorm ever. Exciting!

Just seen the beaut Carol Kirkwood's forecast, must say it was nearly as beautiful as herself !

Anyway! Looking good pretty much from SW, Central Southern England Northwards and Eastwards from there. With the most juice in the SE, I'm not ruling out a real corker perhaps affecting Kent into Essex and East Anglia.

[Nick L]

It depends what models people prefer and what hit rate they have..

 

Its clear that Estofax favor the idea the GFS is going down. (Given they are thunderstorm and convective experts im not knocking them)

 

Where as of course the BBC met office going with the more western idea.. (Agin met office a global weather source what makes them right/wrong)

 

The best bit.. The tax payer funding millions of super computers etc at the met office and investing heavily in our forecasting etc and we can't predict a thunderstorm 12 hours out.. 

 

You clearly have absolutely no idea about how complex forecasting is. Sick of attitudes like this.

Have you got any idea how enormously complex trying to predict? first of all is the atmosphere at any particular time in any particular place, able to produce a thunderstorm let alone will it be slight or severe. Think how often a rainfall forecast of only 12 hours away can be wrong in timing and placing as well as intensity. Think about how difficult it is to get will it rain or snow correct. In my view the forecasts from UK Met over the past 2-3 days of intense heat, humidity and storms have been pretty good but that is just my opinion. All I ask is that you do think hard about how hugely complex it is trying to predict what the atmosphere will do a few hours ahead let alone further out. A fascinating 'ology' though.

 

Indeed John. But some would rather make snide, snarky comments than trying to understand.

[alexisj9]

Just seen the beaut Carol Kirkwood's forecast, must say it was nearly as beautiful as herself !

Anyway! Looking good pretty much from SW, Central Southern England Northwards and Eastwards from there. With the most juice in the SE, I'm not ruling out a real corker perhaps affecting Kent into Essex and East Anglia.

Got cumulus really starting to look nice already. Some getting almost tall enough to be alto cumulus.

[Heisenberg]

hahah, I do love this forum, the entertainment value is just brilliant,

 

As ever with storms it is a radar watch and see what develops, everyone is allowed an opinion, if you agree with that opinion or not is up to you, but it doesnt stop one being allowed to air that opinion. You lot really do take any negative comments about the Meto seriously dont you lol....keep entertaining me guys, love it.

[Gordon Webb]

Just seen the beaut Carol Kirkwood's forecast, must say it was nearly as beautiful as herself !

Anyway! Looking good pretty much from SW, Central Southern England Northwards and Eastwards from there. With the most juice in the SE, I'm not ruling out a real corker perhaps affecting Kent into Essex and East Anglia.

 

 

I thought Carol Kirkwood's forecast's were always the nail in the coffin for this type of weather or hasn't she mention the dreaded H word yet ?

Edited July 3, 2015 by Gordon Webb